TimB

In better news, the models still look great.

Fuckin hell.

lol, exactly.

Yeah I saw this exchange elsewhere and now I’m worried.

So we’re still not worried in or near the city, right?

HRRR coming in hot. 9” already by midday Sunday.

21.1 was the exact Snowmageddon number, wasn’t it? It’s a sign.

Gfs continues to hold serve.

It’s an incredible run for here verbatim.

I take that back. The warm tongue is back with a vengeance on the NAM for those south and east of the city.

HRRR is godawful at that range. I wouldn’t stress one bit, even south.

Long range HRRR is pretty warm… but gets it done in Allegheny.

He is still tracking. He says there’s “zero chance this doesn’t turn into a slop storm in my area” and that the mix line will make it to I-80.

I’ve noticed you get this crap in Pittsburgh sometimes, where they forecast falling temps through the day and it just doesn’t happen until the sun goes down. I doubt it affects overnight lows tonight or temps tomorrow, and I really doubt it cuts into our snow totals Sunday. That isn’t the fail mode.

The Canadian is even more absurd. 3 feet in Louisiana.

Even the ukie backed off the stupid stuff.

The thing that makes this different from PD2 is we torched behind that storm and the snow was gone by the end of the week. This one, we won’t even sniff freezing for quite some time.

Everything seems to be holding serve.

Even where the warm tongue does sneak into PA, it seems to be snuffed out quickly.

This NAM run is risking lulling me into complacency, but we can’t have that. Looks good tho.

And we know what happens. Does the WTOD ever just stop at the Mason-Dixon? (Rhetorical question)

Jesus, if that’s like 15 miles west of where it’s modeled…

That’s a good NAM run. Even at shittier 10:1 ratios, it’s still a foot.

It’s acceptable. Dry slots and shuts off kinda early because the low passes directly over us, but it’s good.

There is an important consideration regarding these totals. With the northward trend in guidance/warm air intrusion, a slight lowering of snow-to-liquid ratio is noted. Ratios may drop to between 10:1 and 15:1 from Pittsburgh on north, and potentially to the 8:1 range or so towards the Mason-Dixon Line. So, a wetter, heavier snow may be possible as compared to previous messaging. These lower ratios may ultimately cut down snow totals as well. We will continue to monitor these trends and adjust accordingly. However, there is fairly high confidence in Winter Storm Warning-level impacts across the forecast area, and an eventual upgrade is nearly certain. It still appears that the heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday, and then tapering off that night. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday. If they’re putting this in the discussion already, I’m more than a little concerned.