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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Going to be hard to get really warm with all this cloud cover.
  2. TimB
    Was thinking about this yesterday. It only takes about a +6 departure to set an all time hottest April, right? I’m about ready to lock that one in with what’s coming later next week, unless we get an actual below normal stretch later in the month. Only fly in the ointment here is that in these dry stretches, overnight lows might cool off pretty well.
  3. TimB
    Daily record is 83. The record earliest: 85: 4/2/2010 86: 4/11/1930 87: 4/17/1896 88: 4/18/1896 (actual high that day was 90) So if we overperform, we’re talking about temperatures a full week or two before they’ve ever been observed.
  4. TimB
    HRRR says 88. I think that’s too high, but we shall see.
  5. TimB
    CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are all in on the hot and dry forecast.
  6. TimB
    Cruz is a beast. Hopefully they keep him around for awhile.
  7. TimB
    They’re certainly looking like they are headed in the right direction, but I’ve said that far too many times in the last 30 years.
  8. TimB
    You are not going to use me as a pawn to devolve this place into sports talk.
  9. TimB
    And thoughts I have, but take them with a grain of salt, I can’t say they’re always right.
  10. TimB
    It’s on all the ensembles too. This is looking like a very warm April.
  11. TimB
    This is really shaping up to be the April version of March 2012.
  12. TimB
    There are a few that come to mind. There’s 2009, which I think had a few days get to 87 around the last week of April. I want to say we had a few hot days at the end of April 2017, then there’s 2002 which had a few days get to 86 or so in the middle of the month. That one isn’t as noteworthy here as it is on the east coast, where it’s the standard-bearer for early season heat. NYC got to 96.
  13. TimB
    Yeah 70s in early April and even in March aren’t uncommon at all, but we’re still talking well above normal. Even 80s the first week of April or before happens in about 20% of years and has happened as recently as 2021.
  14. TimB
    2010 is correct. Mid 80s, not upper. 85 on the 2nd, 84 on the 3rd, 85 on the 6th. The two 85s are the earliest 85s on record. NWS is currently carrying a high around 81 for Wednesday. TWC says 83. NWS discussion contains this: “NBM probabilities give a 30% chance of tying the KPIT record high of 83F.”
  15. TimB
    NWS discussion hinted at 80 or even higher by Wednesday with a shot at the record of 83 if frontal timing is slow like non-GFS models are hinting at. I hope the 18z RGEM is overdone, but this would be the earliest 86 on record at PIT by almost a week.
  16. TimB
    Most of the wind issues came with that line of storms. The non-thunderstorm gusts seemed pretty run of the mill, but PIT gusted to 60 and AGC to 69 when the storm came through.
  17. TimB
    NWS seemed to be pulling back on that in some of their forecast discussions/grids/zone forecasts. I’m not sure that means anything, it seems like they’ve put the 60ish gusts back into the southern half of the county. On second thought, not sure I want a 2/24/19 type event. I think that one involved widespread power outages.
  18. TimB
    This is starting to look more and more like yet another garden variety wind advisory event for the lowlands. Was hoping for a 2/24/19 type event. If it’s going to be windy, might as well do it all the way. Looks like we’re going to squeeze out a just barely above normal March, keeping intact our chances at every month of 2023 being above normal.
  19. TimB
    NWS Pittsburgh is really talking up the wind threat for Saturday, maybe similar to or stronger than this past Saturday.
  20. TimB
    Thing is, they were expecting the heaviest rain south of the city. Sounds like it was bad north too. In Allegheny County proper, maybe 1.25” or so over a 4 day period, which is above normal but not notably wet.
  21. TimB
    This entire pattern wasn’t even all that wet like they were saying it would be. Looks like Thursday was by far the rainiest day. That’s a win.
  22. TimB
    To that point, today looks pretty dry. Point and click centered at the airport forecasts a similar qpf tomorrow as yesterday.
  23. TimB
    I’m not convinced that today won’t be when it’s all said and done.
  24. TimB
    I think basically the frontal boundary sags southward but remains close enough to continue the rainy pattern, then surges back north as a warm front for Saturday and spawns more rain.
  25. TimB
    I like seasons too, but the season that seems to last the longest around here is objectively terrible.
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