TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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And there’s our first 40s at PIT in August in a decade.
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We did it! First August high in the 60s since 2015.
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Pretty much a foregone conclusion that PIT won’t see a low in the 40s tonight if it could barely muster a 59 this morning.
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Yep, we always get screwed by slowly falling evening temps. I’m starting to believe that we’ll never see another high in the 60s or low in the 40s at PIT in July or August again. HRRR has us topping out in the low 60s tomorrow but I suspect it’s way too cold.
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Highs in the 60s tomorrow and Tuesday and a low in the 40s Tuesday night are officially in the NWS forecast for KPIT. We’ll see if these rare-in-recent-years events come to fruition at the official observing site.
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I had previously talked about 40s and low 50s in July, which went from common to rare. The same is true for 40s in August. It’s happened in 3 of the past 25 years, most recently in 2014. Prior to 1999, it used to happen more often than not.
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That green tagger only shows up when the aforementioned West Virginia resident summons her.
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I’d honestly think Monday is our best shot at breaking that streak, if there are enough rain showers around to keep us out of the 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday will over perform if it’s sunny.
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The last time we had a high of 70 or lower in July or August was in 2015 (68 on 8/26). The only other time we’ve gone even 3 consecutive years without a high of 70 or lower in July or August was 1876-1878. We’re now at 8 consecutive years and a good shot at 9, though there’s a chance that streak ends the first half of next week.
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This is really the only winter pattern that exists in the CONUS in our new climate regime. Ridiculously warm everywhere except the Northwest.
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For perspective, that’s the rainiest August day ever recorded there and top 10 overall.
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A swath of 1.5” to 2” rainfall amounts this morning in the N/W half of the county with near zero in the S/E half.
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I don’t think we can hit just 90 anymore.
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I think there’s a lot to be resolved, as we’re trapped between cooler air with an eastern Canadian trough and the warm airmass already in place. Models and ensembles have already moved away from any extended period of cooler weather, but it seems it might be possible a front could dive down later next week and give us a few days near to slightly below normal. But I don’t see the 8-14 day period being below normal on the whole and in fact the CPC has already reversed course on that with today’s outlooks.
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If you ascribe to the theory that 91F is no more arbitrary than 90F (which is indisputably true), then we’re actually ahead of 2012 for 91F days through 7/31 and only trailing 1988 and 1966. Further, 14 of those 16 days have reached 92F. Since 92F is also no more arbitrary than 90F, we’re behind only 1988 for 92F days through the end of July. (at Pittsburgh international)
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And another 91. Dewpoints really dropped.
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6 straight 5-min obs of 90 and it’s not even 3:00. I don’t see how we fall short if we haven’t gotten there already.
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Hmm, a 17 degree difference between Burgettstown and Pittsburgh International, about a 12 mile distance?
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Wait, you’re comparing data from your admittedly cooler location in 2024 to the average across the entire county in 1894?
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Question for you: the equipment used in 1894 - was it sited in the same location as your current weather station and did it have an Asperger fan or whatever you called it?
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Cool, now do East Nantmeal, hotshot.
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Operational models and ensembles do show a pretty strong troughing signal over eastern Canada in that timeframe. Maybe it spills into PA, maybe it doesn’t.
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15th straight July at MDT in the top half of all Julys on record.
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Statistically it would make sense that there are a lot more days that reach exactly 90 vs. 91 vs. 92, etc., and that the further the departure from normal, the fewer days will top out at that exact temperature. So it’s disproportionate in a way that the mathematical explanation makes sense.
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90/50 at that. Rare combo in these parts.
