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Chadzachadam

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Everything posted by Chadzachadam

  1. Chadzachadam
    Still all sleet here, no glaze on anything. Almost at 10” total, if this was all snow it would’ve been 18” or so
  2. Chadzachadam
    Your measurement feels super low? I’m at 9”+ total here and don’t think I’m that far from you and the airport reported 7” a couple hours ago I believe
  3. Chadzachadam
    Sleet line holding pretty strong to our south and west. Hope it stays that way and we never flip to ZR
  4. Chadzachadam
    Light sleet now. 7.5” snow plus 1.5” sleet, still a chance for double digits
  5. Chadzachadam
    NAM nailed the warm nose but was not even close with modeling precip in the initial thump. last NAM snow maps I saw had Philly at 4.5" total snow and sleet and like 0.65 liquid equivalent which was way too low and dry
  6. Chadzachadam
    apparently there was some thunderZR at 27F near Charlotte. heavy sleet here in NW Philly, currently 19F. still some huge disagreement on how high the temps get this evening, I've seen everything from 24 to 35 in various models/forecasts...we'll see what verifies
  7. Chadzachadam
    I don’t know how anyone reliably measures sleet but looks like over 0.5” to me. It’s been pretty heavy at times. Sleet and snow total ~8 so far
  8. Chadzachadam
    Sleet now in NW Philly. Looks like 7.5 or 8” which is good enough for me. Could’ve been historic but the thump delivered
  9. Chadzachadam
    5.2” in NW Philly. Even another couple hours of this and we hit or exceed expectations. Still not buying ZR or plain rain getting up this far, sleet line is coming north but the ZR and 32F lines are not
  10. Chadzachadam
    The NAM had snow starting in about 15 minutes. No wonder totals were so low on there, it forgot about like 5 hours of snow!
  11. Chadzachadam
    3.5” in NW Philly. Looks very different from previous storms with basically nothing on the trees. Seems from other threads like the sleet line is coming quick but that sleet is holding on strong and not changing to ZR as fast as modeled. Most of NC and SC still primarily sleet
  12. Chadzachadam
    Reports of snow in Raleigh and sleet in Blacksburg VA which doesn’t make much sense to me
  13. Chadzachadam
    From what I can gather, snow/sleet line is south of what most models had so far. Some unexpected dry slotting in OK/AR might have them bust low. KS and MO likely to exceed expectations. Initial precip a little earlier than anticipated on the TN valley. So kind of a mixed bag overall
  14. Chadzachadam
    I agree with some folks on the MA forum re: the NAM—I buy the warm nose but I don’t buy the super dry/slow start to the storm. 5 or 6” is the absolute worst case scenario imo. Maybe irrelevant but much of the Midwest seems to be hitting the top end of their snow predictions so far. If we wrung 4” of snow out of last Sunday surely we can double that in a much colder, much wetter, and longer-duration storm
  15. Chadzachadam
    I’ve seen a lot of 4-6” though which feels crazy low. We got that last weekend
  16. Chadzachadam
    Man everyone on here going against Mt Holly…I don’t doubt the warm nose but even if we change over by noon tomorrow that’s like 6-8 hours of snow first, some of which should be quite heavy. And rates from 11-2ish might be high enough to keep us snow for a bit longer as well, should be the height of the precip
  17. Chadzachadam
    NW Philly about 6 miles from center city
  18. Chadzachadam
    Call me crazy but I’ll go with 10” for my backyard plus maybe an inch of sleet on top. Don’t think we get any significant freezing rain. We’ve had some solid performances with SW flow events recently, if the initial thump last 6-8 hours I think 10” is attainable
  19. Chadzachadam
    Casual 3’ of snow in southern Alabama next weekend on the gfs currently enjoying my last few hours of above freezing temps for the next 10 days…
  20. Chadzachadam
    the melting of last weekend's snow is well underway in Philly, but if we can make it through this afternoon we should lock in 2+ weeks of snow cover
  21. Chadzachadam
    I'm conflicted because warm noses are always under-modeled but the NAM is always over-amped. at this point I'll just forget watching individual models and roll with the NWS forecast. sign me up for 13.5" lol
  22. Chadzachadam
    Not to be overly optimistic but I think some of the guesses above are too pessimistic. NWS may well adjust downwards but they also know and adjust for our area in their forecast which a global model obviously doesn't. I still think this is a widespread 10-12"+ before sleet becomes too much of an issue. I don't think 12-16" total is unreasonable given the surface temps and duration
  23. Chadzachadam
    Warmest 10 degrees I’ve ever felt. Balmy out there
  24. Chadzachadam
    Maybe somewhat relevant to the weekend storm—today’s cold was not as brutal as forecast. Got up to 24 here and it looks like we might not make it to single digits tonight, and the wind chill never felt that bad, probably around 5F at worst. Forecast temps for the weekend and beyond have moderated a bit as well
  25. Chadzachadam
    Apple weather app says next expected precip is 20” of snow Sunday lol never seen that before
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