WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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They look good to me
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Running a little colder too.
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I just thought the same thing! Feb 2, 1996 was the worst ice storm I remember in Catawba County. Trees popped all night long was without power for 8-9 days and temps got down near zero a day or 2 after the storm and had several inches of snow on the very end. That was the storm that had me hooked on winter weather.
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If we get that much ice and these temps come in afterwards it would be devastating.
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GFS para showing significant icing as well.
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The cold is for real, but it bleeds in slow coming from that trajectory. It looks like the boundary stalls out to our south and several weak waves of low pressure ride up over it. Are there several impulses that get ejected this way or does this evolve into one major storm? To me this could just as easily be a setup for long duration icing event with overrunning precip and maybe it does trend from ice to snow as deeper colder infiltrates our area.
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Euro coming in with a monster storm on Friday...So much cold air to the west and just slowly filters in over the Apps.
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Wow 1051 hp building in too. Get that to scoot on further south and no way that thing will cut on us.
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Does the Euro have a map for sleet out-put or is that counted in with snowfall?
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Looks good to me, typical North of 85 storm and marginal temps. Hopefully we can get some decent rates, been skipped over in the Northwest Piedmont this year, at this point I'll be happy with anything frozen.
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Looks like Upper low keeps digging stronger and further south each run too, I think it will keep correcting like this for a couple more runs.
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For Sunday's storm the Canadian is moving toward the other models. One more trend like this would definitely put some snow in WNC.
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Looks like to me low is crawling across the gulf and potential major winter storm with high locked in over top.
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I wouldn't get too worried this far out, I mean we are only 2 days a way from the weekend storm and models are still trying to figure it out. I really would be too concerned past day 3-4 at this point.
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One thing to maybe watch for is if we can get some wedging or at least some colder air bleeding in from NE. The GFS para showing a weak high over eastern PA as the moisture is coming in. This is the first time I've noticed that feature there.
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ICON also coming in with a similar track and getting the NW Piedmont in some snow.
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GFS para 850s trend over the last 3 runs
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RGEM not amped like the NAM, but it's trending NW and stronger each run, maybe we can find a happy medium on the models.
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This setup kinda of reminds me of this storm back in 08. https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20080117/
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Maybe we will see the models settle somewhere between the Nam and Euro which is less amped for the moment. It's a delicate balance because I feel like we need the better rates and heavier moisture to get some snow, but that's always going to bring some warmer air in too.
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Yeah me too, looks similar to the para GFS this run with the placement of snow and rain line.
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Nam definitely looking more like a storm now.
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Can you post map?
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12Z Nam trending stronger with the upper energy entering the US. Lets see where this run goes...
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I agree, the NW trend is always real! I thought the storm as a whole looked more organized and stronger this run which is probably why you see the NW movement. Totals went up in my area but definitely closer to the rain line.
