WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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Does the Euro have a map for sleet out-put or is that counted in with snowfall?
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Looks good to me, typical North of 85 storm and marginal temps. Hopefully we can get some decent rates, been skipped over in the Northwest Piedmont this year, at this point I'll be happy with anything frozen.
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Looks like Upper low keeps digging stronger and further south each run too, I think it will keep correcting like this for a couple more runs.
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For Sunday's storm the Canadian is moving toward the other models. One more trend like this would definitely put some snow in WNC.
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Looks like to me low is crawling across the gulf and potential major winter storm with high locked in over top.
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I wouldn't get too worried this far out, I mean we are only 2 days a way from the weekend storm and models are still trying to figure it out. I really would be too concerned past day 3-4 at this point.
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One thing to maybe watch for is if we can get some wedging or at least some colder air bleeding in from NE. The GFS para showing a weak high over eastern PA as the moisture is coming in. This is the first time I've noticed that feature there.
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ICON also coming in with a similar track and getting the NW Piedmont in some snow.
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GFS para 850s trend over the last 3 runs
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RGEM not amped like the NAM, but it's trending NW and stronger each run, maybe we can find a happy medium on the models.
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This setup kinda of reminds me of this storm back in 08. https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20080117/
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Maybe we will see the models settle somewhere between the Nam and Euro which is less amped for the moment. It's a delicate balance because I feel like we need the better rates and heavier moisture to get some snow, but that's always going to bring some warmer air in too.
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Yeah me too, looks similar to the para GFS this run with the placement of snow and rain line.
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Nam definitely looking more like a storm now.
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Can you post map?
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12Z Nam trending stronger with the upper energy entering the US. Lets see where this run goes...
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I agree, the NW trend is always real! I thought the storm as a whole looked more organized and stronger this run which is probably why you see the NW movement. Totals went up in my area but definitely closer to the rain line.
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You can see the upper level energy trending stronger and trying to dig harder in NE Arkansas and Western Tennessee this run.
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I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region.
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Yeah at hr 114 that low is in a good spot tracking across the gulf coast. You would think with a track similar to this our area would be closer to getting a good storm. I think there's some room for this to trend better for us.
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12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday.
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00z GFS with another trend in the right direction for next weekend.
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I am right there with you in Catawba County. Left the house early this morning and saw some good snow around NC/VA line. Would love to watch it at home, but sometimes weather nuts have to follow the storm!
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Snowing in Newton
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FWIW- 18z GFS did trend freezing rain further south.
