Chicago916

2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

If I’m reading it right, the 15z plume mean is around 1” of liquid…and that’s only through 87 hours. 

I was talking about the 21Z which is even better and obviously doesn't cover the main event. Plumes are terrible though at long range, so just watching how they trend.

1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Leave it to Phil Schwartz to pull this sh*t.

Tom Skilling would never

SREF plumes coming in hot for ORD

Euro ensembles should be very interesting

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

What a cutoff on the NW side in IL. Lake county 8-12 and 20 miles west in McHenry 2-4

And another jump of 11" to 20"+ NW to SE

Hasn't fully loaded yet, but looks like almost all GFS ensemble members are north of the OP with the overrunning snows?

Odds we see aircraft sampling of the disturbance in the Pacific given potential large impacts?

As expected, lots of amped GFS ensemble members 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd have to check to see if there are any synoptic similarities but something that crossed my mind is a northward displaced version of the December 2004 storm.

The CIPS top analogs show a ton of big hitters (majority including Chicago). 

Bump

Probably posted here before, but another fun mesoscale model I look at here has been depicting the north/ central Cook bullseye too on its member #1 that just updated. http://hopwrf.info/

West trend in the lake band didn't correct back yet. Likely headlines for Cook soon? Bet lots of people will be caught off guard for tomorrow morning's commute.

I take it this is a faux wagons west that will correct back east? I would've expected people to at least get hopes up since the trend hasn't stopped yet?

Very small flake size in the city still but it got a lot heavier the last few minutes, backed up by radar returns too

Tons more moisture robbing from those Ohio Valley storms

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20220102_NAMMW_prec_precacc-50-100.gif

More negative tilt to the secondary wave as well so far?

Haven't seen much talk about possible lake enhancement, but seeing hints of it at the end of the 3km NAM (obvious long range caveats apply)

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

My friend lives up in North Center/Roscoe Village area and he said already 2-3" down, I'm guessing which includes non LES into this morning.

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I'm located at the same location and can confirm. Most of that was from last night, but it's coming down fast now.

My work wants me to drive from Chicago to Grand Rapids tomorrow or Tuesday and I'm having a hard time convincing them it's not a great idea given the huge change in the forecast. Big Oof. At least I'll experience lake effect?

It has been puking snow up by me in Avondale. A little west of the Wrigleyville area.

Heaviest snow and largest dendrites of the entire storm ongoing now on the North side of Chicago

Around 3" near Avondale. Looks like that snow band is just north of me... Barely snowing here.

Hopefully given the trends, TV channels can start getting the word out. I can see people getting confused when they only get an inch from the Sunday event and are surprised by much more from the main event.

Bit the bullet after lurking for a long long time. Maybe I'll try to most more often if it merits! I also took a few atmosphic science classes in undergrad and grad school at UIUC while studying energy systems engineering. Currently an emerging technology mechanical engineer.