Chicago916

With SREF shifting more south I bet the 0z NAM comes up huge for NIL and SE Wisconsin 

Quite the friendly trend for NIL

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Pretty hyped to see what LOT's afternoon AFD will be like. 

Not to get ahead of myself, but if a slightly farther south solution does verify that would be a pretty big W for the RGEM/CMC

And I believe the Ukie has been south too.

NAM says shift the WSW southeast in Illinois. Maybe NAM is just being NAM though but some other CAMs also are trending this way. Fingers crossed in the city.

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Euro is south as well. Going to be real nice for N IL

 

edit: well it started a bit further south, then ends up a touch N

Regardless, good to see the continuing trend on global, regional, and mesoscale models. I doubt the globals will handle the rapidly deepening and occluding of the Low very well which will factor in where the final deformation axis resides 

We'll have to wait and see how these two storms this week turn out but wow at the modeling a week plus out showing the possible solution to both storms and ensembles mostly staying the course for both storms. Models have really come a long way.

Looking like this storm will cause quite the severe outbreak and high winds to the south and east. I'm thinking there will be some surprises with the cold sector due to the excess rain and storms in the warm sector. Would not want to be LOT having to make the call based on the potential cutoff potential if the two waves of precipitation manage to overlap or completely miss some counties.

Two storm threads at once? What year is it?

Not bad consistency for a week away. 

Not a bad look on the EPS and CMCE. Shows the wide range in outcomes

CMC has swapped with the GFS and has moved north with the big storm. As long as it doesn't go poof the next few days we should all be happy.

Someone wake RC up, he needs to replace his saved photos with the latest Euro lmao

Interesting that we have a moderate risk of heavy snow already prior to tonight's model runs.

Completely hypothetical... But if some location ever did receive 4 feet of snow in 36 hours, how high could a drift get? Real question for the pros though, how well can our weather models forecast an event on the leading edge of an arctic blast like what is shown? What do analogs show? The last one last year also was forecasting a decent snow at longer lead times (there were still blizzard warnings), but we mostly got an inch of dust with strong winds. 

Since when did GFS 360hr fantasy blizzards show up at half lead time? Lmao

Tonight's GFS might make up for a boring last few winters.

Imagine what the DGEX would've been doing with this storm... Glad that was retired years and years ago tho. Not this storm but radar looking good for a DAB tonight. Some decent banding.

Models trending this weekend's Northeast snow event a little snowier in the Midwest with the first piece of energy, now showing a small accumulation. Almost looks like the energy is more delayed in handing off to the coastal low. Would think the longer that's delayed the more snow that could be squeezed out in the Midwest? That should have some implications on thermals for the subsequent storm I would think.

The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways.

Big dog on the 18z GFS. Who's going to make the channel for it? Lol

12z EPS seems to still look fine based on mean QPF and low track. Not worth putting much stock into a single run at this point anyways.

I've still got a feeling the first storm this weekend trends more NW to brush NIL with some moderate snows. That'll then have an effect on larger storm afterwards I would think?

It would be funny if it verified, but is the CMC trying to resolve a Mesolow over Lake Michigan due to the ULL next Friday? Would be a funny way to transition from near 60F Christmas to 6"+ snow cover on NYE.

Serious question. What will happen to a MCS (if and when it congeals and moves into NIL) as it barrels into the lake breeze?

Lake breeze now evident along with the outflow. Once these collide... Boom.