Chicago916

Everytime I see the GFS or other models backing the low west over Lake Michigan it reminds me of mesolows, except we might be dealing with a sub 980 mb low. Oof. 

At hour 54 on the GFS it looks like it's now seeing some stronger energy in NM that looked to be on the GEM and Euro all along. 

Not sure if they do them since the pandemic, but with the holiday travel next week, would the NOAA try to add extra aircraft sampling for this storm?

Insane pressure drop on that run. Sheesh. No matter where this thing goes, going to see some dangerous wind-chills on the backside. 

The NAM is gonna break this site once in range 

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

they have always been pretty bad.

When they were riding the GFS the past few days despite 0 continuity was comical too 

Might be the wrong place for this banter, but lmao at BAM weather so deadset on an easterly track of the storm. I guess we'll know soon enough, just find it funny.

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Good runs

No rain GIFs after seeing a couple GEFS members showing rain?

Looks like the past consecutive 5 GFS op runs have slowly shifted west towards the Euro... 

GEFS showing quite a few cutters that would make everyone happy. Why even pay attention to the OP runs at this range?

If it's any consolation if the Christmas week storm ends up on the east coast, could see a decent lake effect chance on the Chicago side of the lake?

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 ride

 

I'll take the 15Z Rap and the Kool-aid it's sipping. Nevertheless, looking more likely that it'll at least thump for a little bit.

Tons of small hail in Avondale with strong winds 

Went from nada to heavy pixie dust near the Metro just now.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

bump. the time has come.

Great time to begin haha

Purely anecdotal too (didn't look into the moving parts), I don't think the Ukie ever really showed an amped solution with GHDIII ever, so nice to see at least a run with that solution during the 0z run.

Those radar returns entering Cook and Dupage look juicy

1 minute ago, homedis said:

I’m kinda on the border of Logan Square/Bucktown/Wicker Park (I just say Wicker Park because its the most identifiable). Near Armitage and Milwaukee. Hbu?

I'm near ya too! I'm in Avondale myself.

Someone show the maximum snowfall amount at the end of the HRRR for everyone

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Do you have any thoughts on the lake enhancement potential in the area?  I don't want to say the parameters are God awful the whole time, but... lol

Inversion height get pretty shallow at times, like 4k feet with considerable drying just above.  Sufficient delta T up to that level though.  Seems like the most aggressive guidance may be overdone.  Thoughts?

late run 18z HRRR joins the rest of the models in this big time

How's the HRW FV3 model been? I'm assuming not good with winter events? The weenie in me is binning it with other higher resolution models that are shifting North.

I could so envision a scenario where Cook gets to 10" plus by getting lucky with the frotogenetic band and then additional lake effect/enhancement while the main storm passes Southeast.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

There's one member with 33" at ORD still. So bad.

I saw that haha. I'd love to see that individual member

Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

HRRR is NW with first round through 30hrs

And SREF is also still NW. Grasping at straws lol

Just now, Hoosier said:

Could be anecdotal/bias but I feel like these tend to drift north more than south at the last minute.

I keep remembering this winter one of these forecast originally in NIL and it ended up in southern WI. Not 100% but pretty sure it happened.