Chicago916

Models trending this weekend's Northeast snow event a little snowier in the Midwest with the first piece of energy, now showing a small accumulation. Almost looks like the energy is more delayed in handing off to the coastal low. Would think the longer that's delayed the more snow that could be squeezed out in the Midwest? That should have some implications on thermals for the subsequent storm I would think.

The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways.

Big dog on the 18z GFS. Who's going to make the channel for it? Lol

12z EPS seems to still look fine based on mean QPF and low track. Not worth putting much stock into a single run at this point anyways.

I've still got a feeling the first storm this weekend trends more NW to brush NIL with some moderate snows. That'll then have an effect on larger storm afterwards I would think?

It would be funny if it verified, but is the CMC trying to resolve a Mesolow over Lake Michigan due to the ULL next Friday? Would be a funny way to transition from near 60F Christmas to 6"+ snow cover on NYE.

Serious question. What will happen to a MCS (if and when it congeals and moves into NIL) as it barrels into the lake breeze?

Lake breeze now evident along with the outflow. Once these collide... Boom.

North moving boundary extremely evident on satellite 

Not sure how well Nadocast does for wind, but definitely has that Derecho look for tomorrow.

Inb4 Northern Illinois supercells this afternoon.

And round 2 to follow still in Southeast Minnesota?

Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630

Repeat of today this Friday? Looks interesting at least

Sirens just started in the city

Well a lot happened since my post this morning. Sheesh. Finally seeing filtered sunshine downtown Chicago.

If the MCS dies quicker, still decent potential for severe in NIL, but looks very conditional. 12Z HRRR for example. Will need to watch incoming CAMs to see if they follow, and observations.

KORD office was riding the HRDPS and it looks like it performed very well with this

Looks like the European model was upgraded, including adding a lot of extended ensemble runs. Will be interesting to see how it performs!

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This guy's daily briefings on YouTube are great.  He goes into detail about the drought and why it continues to be so difficult to get rain in our region.

He was a fantastic UIUC atmospheric sciences professor!

Tons of hail in Buffalo Grove right now. Ground is fully covered.

Long range 03z Rap popping some PDS Tor soundings in Chicago Wednesday morning. Something to monitor

Very late day 2 convective outlook.

Would be great if the RRFS comes back online soon in time for the upcoming severe event. Seems to be offline still since Friday 

10 minutes ago, Natester said:

If I remember correctly it has happened back in May 2003.  May 4, May 8 and May 10, 2003 all had high risks in the same latitude, albeit slightly south.

GFS trending in the direction to add to those