Chicago916

Another low pressure system cutting right through Chicago end of this week. Seems like that was the dominant storm track this Winter. Could lead to interesting severe weather as we enter Spring?

Best snow of the entire event in the city right now

9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z EPS

With a mean like that, there must be some crazy, impossible totals on some of the ensemble members through NE IL.

Somebody needs to put down the NAM. Completely useless model.

Going to be the shortest WSW to nada ever in the metro? Seems like it. 

Meanwhile the Ukie doesn't even have any precipitation in Chicago and points North

The context of that NAM run with the gorgeous weather today is hilarious. Is the Chicago climate now one of Texas?

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

With all due respect, describing it that way makes it seem like there's a predetermined outcome. If your take is that the snow swath will end up south of what the 12z Euro op is showing, that's fine. There's no such thing as a model moving toward a consensus. Plus, the GEFS mean is solidly north of the GFS. And the amount of spread in the solutions means there isn't a consensus anyway.

 

Is there a particular model of choice that is best at depicting dynamic cooling?

Um what is the EURO smoking... I thought it used to be king?

To this point (borrowing from someone way more knowledgeable than I, who I have followed for years)

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/1630565498705309697?t=dvCYHzAJ5mHNQKUYQtNyfA&s=19

Why all the pessimism? I would think being in the crosshairs on the gefs, cmce, eps and having the NAM as a NW outlier (as always) would be great for NIL?

Crazy amount of convection shown on the 0z Icon. If any of these solutions come to fruition you have to assume thundersnow and thundersleet in the cold sector.

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Does anyone have those WXBell EPS individual snowfall outputs? Just looking for something to hold me over until 18z.

I'll take the Ukie please and thank you. Bet today we also see the most juiced Euro run for NIL before some backtracking on moisture. 

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Best model

I don't have the eps, but the mean looks like a great track too and probably is similar

This came out of nowhere

13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Bump north on 18z EPS. Still lots of spread on the individual members, but added several farther north/west and stronger solutions.

Edit: Attached are the snow mean and member low locations.

Edit 2: Now with individual member snowfall.

Quite a few big dogs. Interesting to see that with a more ENE movement and not a NE moving low.

Euro going to bump north at 12z

Like all systems recently, let's just pencil in the final low track through NIL

Something's brewing next week? GEFS and Ukie seem to think so. 

Not sure what the Ukie is smoking too showing snow in NE IL now.

Under full sun, how long will the 1inch that fell in the city last today?

Constant pingers here hitting the windows.

Looks like IL Northern tier upgraded to WSW

13 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Riding a razors edge in terms of southern extent here, but these higher returns are good

Going to be interesting if the cutoff is near us. Might get 6"+ while the metro gets much less. Oof more like Northern burbs into Lake county get it good while central Cook and South are unlucky.