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Chicago916

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Everything posted by Chicago916

  1. Chicago916
    That's all fair, but the pattern itself technically provides the highest ceiling for big dogs on the East Coast? Whether they occur or not is the question or whether they peak offshore. Just not seeing anything that would pull this pattern into one favoring more inland tracks or cutters like panhandle lows or colorado lows.
  2. Chicago916
    Excuse any of my ignorance but how is this pattern not an "east coast pattern"? Seems like we're stuck in a NW flow in the middle of the country now and only the East Coast can get lucky when the Sub tropical jet wants to cooperate? So clippers for us and occasional favorable flow for LE (soon to end with lakes freezing though?) Not a good look out West with so much ridging and lack of meaningful mountain snows. Could equate to drought concerns there into Summer without runoff?
  3. Chicago916
    So we do this LE again end of week? Looks favorable this side of the lake again interestingly
  4. Chicago916
    Super cool https://x.com/i/status/2015442810598531536
  5. Chicago916
    Probably a tough case pinning down ratios too right? We were definitely at 5:1 or so at the onset (pixie dust) but significantly higher now in LE. Not sure Kuchara for that matter was showing up to 40:1 regardless of qpf? Looks like Ukie at 12z yesterday had ~ .41 qpf around ORD. So 20:1 full event average would be 8in system total. Not too shabby.
  6. Chicago916
    Hell of an overachiever for MKE right? Would think they originally had low accumulations in the forecast. Looks like the main LE band is finally shifting south from there.
  7. Chicago916
    Whiteout conditions! Heaviest all winter with fluffy dendrites. Hoping the primary low hangs on longer to keep the NE flow going later. Also looks like the upper trough is aiding in redeveloping snow to the southwest.
  8. Chicago916
    Nothing here and I'm right next door lmao in 5 minutes that'll change
  9. Chicago916
    Interesting the different shapes to lake effect/lake enhancement. Almost like there's fingers of lake enhanced snow so between the fingers there's virtually no snow.
  10. Chicago916
    4-5 inches and still cranking! Should get to 6 with it still snowing and the main LE band still north of here!
  11. Chicago916
    Gotta enjoy the single season of Wagler while we have it.
  12. Chicago916
    Flakes starting in Avondale
  13. Chicago916
    Breaking news: Took 24hr lead time, but trash GFS finally caved to EURO lol
  14. Chicago916
    Our friends? Idts.
  15. Chicago916
    Bring on thunderstorms
  16. Chicago916
    Welp, instead of any positive shift north the last 36hrs, every model shifted south. So much for cautious optimism. Maybe we'll be able to smell the snow.
  17. Chicago916
    Ukie continues to look nice at least. Team international models. (Phrasing)
  18. Chicago916
    I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/
  19. Chicago916
    I want whatever this experimental Canadian model is smoking.
  20. Chicago916
    I feel that. Today's theme is just minor adjustments everywhere tbh. Still could see a surprise since I think some of the features are still up in the Arctic.
  21. Chicago916
    Looks the same as last run to me
  22. Chicago916
    Was just thinking about all the budget cuts to the NOAA and how it impacts modeling. I wonder what verification scores are now vs previous years (winter and summer comparisons). Feels like modeling is pretty bad.
  23. Chicago916
    So you're saying now until the start of the system it won't continue to baby step better, upping snow totals each new run (jk but I really miss those days)
  24. Chicago916
    Unsurprisingly the GEFS went boom They should just decommission that model...
  25. Chicago916
    Sampling of the Baja low not included in the NAM (doesn't matter cuz it sucks anyways) but good for other models. So that won't explain any changes seen down there. Looks like some sondes made the NAM after all https://x.com/i/status/2014131199120162993
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