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CHItoMKE916
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Everything posted by CHItoMKE916
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On the reals though, this probably is the most under the gun such a large area of the sub has been in since the Washington, IL outbreak (ignoring derechos). Could be a busy day. Going to be some lol worthy rrfs runs starting today. LR NAM already going crazy in NIL with STP.
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Tornado Alley really is just Illinois these days.
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Trending NW with larger warm sector. Definitely the next period to watch
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Any prefrontal cells that pop ahead of the front that aren't undercut and are in the better parameter space. Yikes.
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What does it take these days to get a Moderate risk? Doesn't make sense given the watch probabilities?
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Safe to say morning clouds/debris will not be an issue. Time to build instability and a strong cap.
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Maybe a dumb question but why does the SPC Mesoanalysis show CAPE in Illinois? I doubt we've accumulated 1000 J/kg under clouds all day.
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Feels like another sleeper lower MI tornado day
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Given the nuance in forecasting severe weather, I find it funny how the current enhanced eastern extent just barely extends into the Metro lol
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The Great Lakes are the place to be when everything else goes to shit. At least we have fresh water.
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They did. ILL!
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Was driving around tons of flooded streets in Lincoln Park and Avondale earlier. Going to be a literal icerink out there tomorrow. If only someone could have cleared all of the crap from the sewer drains to prevent it...
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Idk about using global models at short range, but interesting dual maxima of snow on GEFS in NW IL and NE IL. Who knows what happens.
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MET from Central IL posted this. Would think this would extend north and east too? https://www.facebook.com/share/17Ay3SJdeN/
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Morning storms looking fairly robust too. Saw some peeks of sun outside too
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Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao
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soon to be all of us
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I've sensed cautious optimism from you lately. I still think it's strange given the moving pieces we haven't really seen any large swings in guidance. I guess modeling isn't that terrible then
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I was just hoping for more thunderstorms, but looks like between snow and thunderstorms, we've landed in the middle so we'll get neither lol
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Never been so confused catching up on a thread. Models haven't really changed all too much (kinda wild given the many pieces of energy)? Are we rooting for a miss north? Are we vague posting?
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Glancing at the EPS mean qpf and I'm gonna need some see some ensemble members... Lol
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EPS big shift South?
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The 0z RRFS was actually fairly accurate after all. Single tornadic storm south then elevated cluster of hailers behind it (ducks)
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Very cool satellite right now. Lake breeze continuing to move south, but also erosion of the cloud deck moving north. If anyone wants a great resource, I use Victor Gensini's site to have many resources available at once https://atlas.niu.edu/mapwall/
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Idk if I buy the more northward trend of the front in IL to continue anymore then it has already, but the more north it trends, the higher the population threatened by a potential strong tornado (no guarantee obviously!)
