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winterwarlock

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Everything posted by winterwarlock

  1. Its more like being down 15-0 and having the ball at your own 20 at the 2 minute warning
  2. The NBM use in this situation is a joke. What is wrong with Mt Holly. Totally innaccurate because 2 or 3 ensembles warp the whole average
  3. Can someone tell me why Mt Holly has such a fascination with NBM and highlighting that there is a 40% chance of 6 inches by I95...this doesnt make sense
  4. absolutely the nam won here.....its clown map was off mainly because of ratio but for south of 78 it won..it was the first to show the warm nose and stuck with it while other models never had it at all and put out `12-16..the gfs which many weenies clung to was embarrassing
  5. sleet here in belle mead near the hillsborough border
  6. yeah it was too dry and the ratios overperformed can we trash the gfs and also i question the use of nbm until 24 hours before
  7. exactly...have to give the nam some props
  8. actually its run last night had me flipping at 1 pm and it did exactly...kuchera run gave me a bit over 6 and its more like 8 here so high ratios beat but it certainly didnt do horrible for those central jersey south given it was the first model to sniff the warm nose and introduce sleet all the way back to its 84 hour run a few days ago. The ratios were more of the difference here
  9. yeah the nam nailed the timing...the run from last night had 6 or so on Kuchera so the high ratios overperformed where we might have around 8 instead
  10. flipped to 90% sleet here just as the nam said it would at 1pm
  11. i must be on the northern side of you...just starting to ping
  12. pingers mixing in 1pm just like the nam said
  13. maybe 7.5 here..heavy snow...sleet is near me per radar
  14. the hrrr is off on the sleet...its already sleeting in Hamilton NJ
  15. my friend is near villanova and it went to sleet
  16. the hrrr is already too south with the sleet line by an hour
  17. do you think freezing rain is a threat at all today
  18. its flipped to sleet near Villanova PA
  19. yeah maybe in your parts according to hrrr but for me in central jersey starts to get in more like 2
  20. well to be fair modelling didnt have it moving further into NJ til 1
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