winterwarlock

Its all model noise at this point

it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area

Nam will lead the way

. The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the region. There is an increasing concern that some are

Stop hugging ratios..most models are 6-10 with nam 4-6

euro probably is the one peeps should sign on for....widespread 6-8 for CJ, 7-10 north of 78

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to. This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks.

It will bust badly in central jersey

Qpf cut on gfs moving to euro

yup throw the nam out, throw the euro out, throw the eukie out......the thing is the gfs has been on an island the whole time and even with that is showing signs of a cave

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

this i think 8-10 a great forecast for a wide swath south of 78, if you want to account for under or over performance a general 6-12 from north central jersey through middlesex ocean monmouth down to philly

they did lower philly and so jersey to 8-12 but honestly that 8-12 should also include southern somerset, middlesex, monmouth and ocean

I guess they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt

hasnt this shown up on a few other models too

when will Mt Holly cave if at all

Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014695227408228416

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

the euro wasnt impressive last night for much of the area....6-10

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less