winterwarlock

Define location..im forecasting for central jersey south of 78 newark to nyc and north of trenton

Its going to be ugly post mortem for them and their NBM

Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them

Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro

It will never top the January 94 ? Snow ice pack

Enough I dont have to wait for the Euro Here is Warlock's first call 54 hours out...and being a first call this will change at least once before final call8-12 inches Central Jersey up to Newark/NYC that could see as little as 6 if sleet mix moves in quicker and if sleet is delayed or never materializes we see the 12-14 inch totals10-14 inches N of 78 to Nw NJ. If sleet reaches these areas could cut down to 8. Colder air could make for high ratios and 16 inch amounts in sweet spots6-9 inches monmouth/ocean/philly/south jersey. Could approach 12 inches if warm nose does not materializeCoastal south jersey 3-6.

raises hand

ouch

its spits out 1.3 for central jersey north and 1.7 extreme coast south jersey

really a kick in the balls verbatim from the nam east of the Garden State Parkway

well even as we laugh at the GFS it does matchup with what Mt Holly is forecasting in NJ

Goofus on an island

odd post...most models are showing 6-12 not 12-18

i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there

why did they have to go 18 inches though...why not 8-14 that seems more appropriate..IMO its because they have fallen in love with the nbm

hearing Lee Goldberg is 6-12 for many but havent seen a map yet

its 6-12 on the map for most of nj...on kuchera its 7-13

nam is 6-12..thats a decent forecast

The masses are now expecting the big hyped 12-16 inch event if that fails to happen they will just shake their head at the forecasters

feb 20 2025 was that the date of a pretty big failure...there have been several

ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

Mt holly is being absurd....going to hug the NBM right off the cliff and then when its 6-12 in central jersey and 10-16 to the north will act like they got it right all along most prudent would be to start out lower with what the actual models are putting out and then talk about the possibility of higher amounts

exactly...6-12 covers alot of bases to the public without setting yourself up for failure with 12-18 initial maps which if fear Mt holly will do based on their discussions the past day and their insistence on using the faulty nbm of course stress the potential in the northern areas you could get those 15 inch plus amounts and toward the coast especially toward southern jersey you could get 3-4 inches before a changeover to ice and maybe plain rain