Scottie16
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Everything posted by Scottie16
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What to watch today (Thursday) If the NWS Morristown afternoon forecast discussion notes a "southward trend in the guidance" or mentions that "cold air at the surface looks more stubborn," the probability of a high-accumulation snow event for East Tennessee is increasing. .
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Honestly just playing around with AI .
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Based on current data as of Thursday, January 22, 2026, the prediction for Sweetwater, TN is a high-impact, complex winter event. Because Sweetwater sits south of Knoxville along the I-75 corridor, it is currently in the "danger zone" for a significant transition from snow to ice. The Most Likely Outcome Saturday Morning: Precipitation starts as heavy wet snow. Initial accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible before the transition begins. Saturday Afternoon/Night: The "warm nose" is forecast to push into Monroe County. Expect snow to transition to sleet and then freezing rain. This is the most dangerous period for Sweetwater. Sunday: As the storm pulls away, wrap-around moisture may bring a final period of light snow flurries, but little additional accumulation is expected. Sweetwater Specific Hazards Ice Accretion: Latest NWS Morristown guidance places the heaviest ice potential (up to 0.50") south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains—a zone that includes Sweetwater. This amount of ice is sufficient to cause widespread power outages and snap tree limbs. Travel: I-75 through Monroe and Loudon counties will likely become treacherous. Even if snow totals are lower than predicted, the layer of ice on top will make roads impassable. The "Valley Effect": Cold air often gets trapped in the Tennessee Valley (the "Great Valley"). This could cause the freezing rain to last longer in Sweetwater than models predict, as the surface cold air is "stubborn" and difficult to move. The "Fork in the Road" The "Snow" Surprise (South Track): If the storm shifts just 50 miles south, the warm nose stays in Georgia. Sweetwater would likely see 8 to 12 inches of snow with no ice. The "Rain" Bust (North Track): If the storm shifts further north, the warm nose could be so strong that temperatures rise above 32°F at the surface, turning most of the event into a cold, heavy rain with only a brief wintry start. Recommendation: Prepare for a prolonged power outage starting Saturday evening. For the most localized, minute-by-minute data, monitor the NWS Morristown and the TEMA Winter Weather Dashboard for emergency alerts. You’d think Carver wrote this. .
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Was taking a break for awhile but most local Mets within the last 10 minutes have said the snow line is going back south? .
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HHHR up to bat .
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I still feel bad because it’s been awhile for Tellico to see a pretty decent snow. I was hoping he would cash in this go around. .
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Watching the dirty wave over the Canada/ Alaska area and if my eyes aren’t deceiving me it looks like the BL is weakening. .
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Check the icon. .
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Tellico can attest to that during the 2024 January storm. Sweetwater got hammered but not so much towards his neck of the woods. IIRC. .
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Baja low is being bullied right now but the tables will turn later on. .
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Thanks for the post Carver! Today we are in short range mode. I know all of us have more than likely thrown the towel in for snow but dammit we could still see some dangerous freezing rain. There’s no crying in meteorology. .
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Icon trending back our way ever so slightly. .
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Almost GFS time. .
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Oh! .
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Dude thank you so much. It’s Johns Manville laying off. They laid off everyone from the Mat Department today. .
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Yes sir .
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All good. My 401k is healthy. It just sucks for people who aren’t as lucky as I am. .
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Is there a low forming off the coast of Carolina that isn’t allowing the cold to come all the way down? .
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I’m drunk. They laid off 20 more people tonight. Crazy how the HRRR in range is showing blistering cold into Kentucky with the PV and yet we’re in the upper 30s? Cmon now .
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2014 iirc. I sat outside and listens to trees fall for hours. .
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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
Scottie16 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Kinda the same situation. Nothingburger 3 days out to a monster snow storm. . -
First time seeing this booger at 72. .
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Current observations over Alaska .
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As I get older Jeff the more I love dad jokes and that one made my day! I needed it. Thanks man! .
