Scottie16
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Everything posted by Scottie16
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Ready for you to see the GFS! .
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This just got interesting again. .
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OH BOY! (So far) .
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Now I like the first glance of the GFS. .
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Honestly try asking Google AI lol .
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Did not mean to post that. .
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Icon is just the icon. .
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I mean the map shows how powerful this HP will be. .
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Yes, it’s primarily used for temperatures .
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Weird run. .
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I’ll see if I can find the article I read earlier but your guess is correct. That air mass is from what I understand more dense than modeled. .
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It’s worth mentioning that we’re now starting to see the effects on the recon data. .
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I wouldn’t be shocked to see some dynamic cooling help Chattanooga in the initial thump. I knew you were lol, funny that when I was reading it I immediately thought Carver or Jeff. it’s pretty spot on with some of its info tho, I’ll give it credit this go around. .
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Haha I’m at the age now where I don’t even care to go back and fix typos. My brain will spew information that I can’t type fast enough so I definitely understand. We got a few for other models to roll in, I recommend going over to Google and playing with the AI to see what it spits out for you LOL .
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This is Ai, not a forecast. As of the afternoon of Thursday, January 22, 2026, there are several indications that the Arctic high-pressure system is trending stronger and faster than models originally predicted earlier in the week. This shift is a key driver for a potential "snow surprise" in Sweetwater, TN. Here is the current data: 1. Near-Record Central Pressure The high-pressure system currently over the Northern Plains is exceptionally dense. Newest model data shows a central pressure of 1050 to 1052 mb. The Trend: Meteorologists have noted that this is near record-high pressure for the region at this time of year. Significance: A higher central pressure means the cold air mass is heavier and more difficult for a southern storm to "push" north. 2. The European Model "Correction" One of the most telling signs is the behavior of the European (ECMWF) model, which is often considered the most reliable. In the last 24 hours, the ECMWF has significantly "corrected" its forecast, shifting its surface high further south and making it stronger to align with the colder GFS (American) model. This correction suggests that the model was previously underestimating the strength of the cold air "brick wall". 3. Faster Southward Plunge The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and local NWS offices have noted that the Arctic air is plunging south faster than previously predicted. For Sweetwater, this means the cold air may already be "locked in" at the surface before the heaviest moisture arrives on Saturday. A faster-moving high helps set up Cold Air Damming (CAD), where cold air gets "wedged" against the mountains, potentially preventing the "warm nose" from ever reaching the ground. What This Means for Sweetwater's "Snow Surprise" Because the high is proving to be so robust, it is creating a southward suppression of the storm track. If the high stays this strong, it could shunt the low-pressure system far enough south (into Central Alabama/Georgia) to keep the "warm nose" completely away from the Tennessee Valley. Result: This would flip the forecast from a "messy mix" back to all snow, potentially leading to much higher accumulations than currently forecast. Current Verdict: The high is indeed verifying as stronger than earlier model runs suggested. While this doesn't guarantee all snow, it significantly increases the odds of a colder, snowier outcome for East Tennessee compared to the "rainy mix" forecasts from yesterday. .
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What to watch today (Thursday) If the NWS Morristown afternoon forecast discussion notes a "southward trend in the guidance" or mentions that "cold air at the surface looks more stubborn," the probability of a high-accumulation snow event for East Tennessee is increasing. .
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Honestly just playing around with AI .
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Based on current data as of Thursday, January 22, 2026, the prediction for Sweetwater, TN is a high-impact, complex winter event. Because Sweetwater sits south of Knoxville along the I-75 corridor, it is currently in the "danger zone" for a significant transition from snow to ice. The Most Likely Outcome Saturday Morning: Precipitation starts as heavy wet snow. Initial accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible before the transition begins. Saturday Afternoon/Night: The "warm nose" is forecast to push into Monroe County. Expect snow to transition to sleet and then freezing rain. This is the most dangerous period for Sweetwater. Sunday: As the storm pulls away, wrap-around moisture may bring a final period of light snow flurries, but little additional accumulation is expected. Sweetwater Specific Hazards Ice Accretion: Latest NWS Morristown guidance places the heaviest ice potential (up to 0.50") south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains—a zone that includes Sweetwater. This amount of ice is sufficient to cause widespread power outages and snap tree limbs. Travel: I-75 through Monroe and Loudon counties will likely become treacherous. Even if snow totals are lower than predicted, the layer of ice on top will make roads impassable. The "Valley Effect": Cold air often gets trapped in the Tennessee Valley (the "Great Valley"). This could cause the freezing rain to last longer in Sweetwater than models predict, as the surface cold air is "stubborn" and difficult to move. The "Fork in the Road" The "Snow" Surprise (South Track): If the storm shifts just 50 miles south, the warm nose stays in Georgia. Sweetwater would likely see 8 to 12 inches of snow with no ice. The "Rain" Bust (North Track): If the storm shifts further north, the warm nose could be so strong that temperatures rise above 32°F at the surface, turning most of the event into a cold, heavy rain with only a brief wintry start. Recommendation: Prepare for a prolonged power outage starting Saturday evening. For the most localized, minute-by-minute data, monitor the NWS Morristown and the TEMA Winter Weather Dashboard for emergency alerts. You’d think Carver wrote this. .
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Was taking a break for awhile but most local Mets within the last 10 minutes have said the snow line is going back south? .
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HHHR up to bat .
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I still feel bad because it’s been awhile for Tellico to see a pretty decent snow. I was hoping he would cash in this go around. .
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Watching the dirty wave over the Canada/ Alaska area and if my eyes aren’t deceiving me it looks like the BL is weakening. .
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Check the icon. .
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Tellico can attest to that during the 2024 January storm. Sweetwater got hammered but not so much towards his neck of the woods. IIRC. .
