fujiwara79

I find it fascinating how the prospect of an inch of snow would get hundreds of responses per day if this was December. But since it's March, people have mentally checked out and this barely gets any responses.

I prefer a cold March ala March 1960 or March 2018. And a summer like 1816 would be amazing.

This is the one type of scenario DC does okay in -- overrunning

Ah ok, thanks for the explanation! Sounds like the teleconnection indices mask a lot of smaller-scale features and don't necessarily tell the whole story.

According to the CPC, we currently have a PNA of -1.5. It doesn't show the PNA forecast going positive anytime soon.

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC. When was the last time something like that happened?

https://www.facebook.com/weatherhistory/posts/january-25th-2000an-unexpected-noreaster-hit-north-carolina-virginia-and-the-mid/1155550869911051/

these ensembles often show a foot of snowfall out near the gulf stream. Somehow I don't think these snow accumulation algorithms account for the fact that the water temp is like 60 degrees out there.

Agreed, it's very disconcerting. Getting perfect track rainstorms in Minneapolis in January & February is...not normal.

As bad as our winter has been relative to expectations, the entire country has experienced one of the warmest and snowless winters on record. Last year, at least significant chunks of the west experienced a great winter. This winter has been a blowtorch everywhere other than a brief cold snap in January. At least we cashed in somewhat on the very few opportunities we had.

if there is one month that, for whatever reason, has delivered during our snow drought, it's March. I trust March more than December at this point.

You know things have gotten bad when we're now thinking La Ninas aren't too bad, actually

20 years from now, even 2013-2016 may feel out of reach. Especially if the oceans continue their warming trend. We've had eight consecutive warmer-than-average winters. Just having a winter where temperatures are average is very difficult these days.

Not sure how much flipping the PDO will actually help. The oceans are on fire and keep getting warmer. These oceanic cycles are super-imposed on a general linearly warming trend in water temperatures. Analog based forecasting is based on a different regime and not sure how well it applies today. We'll still get occasionally snowy winters but I think we should give up the hope of returning to the winters of the 1960s. Who knows, 20 years from now we may be reminiscing about days like today as "the good old days".

Snow mixing in here. Temps dropped 5 degrees within one hour. Now 33.4