WinterWxLuvr

New IP rule

There is zero panic. Discussion is not panic.

There was a time a couple of weeks ago that the models saw a full latitude ridge in the east. That failed completely.

Agree with both. I think the ridging is the reason the cold can’t seem to make it in Ninas. For whatever reasons the models under estimate the ridging out in time but tend to see it as we get closer.

I think it’s the cold not getting here as quickly as originally modeled that’s killing Sunday. The CMC has another similar event next week where the look is that the cold front basically pushes the southern wave off the coast.

And that is exactly what my memory says about most Nina cold outbreaks

My experience in Nina years is that cold is consistently modeled to progress east and south but has a very hard time doing so.

Draw your own conclusions

First image is the gfs afternoon run from Sunday for Monday morning. The second is today’s gfs for the same time. Second image in next post.

Does Thursday night remind anyone else of Dec 8, 2009. That was supposed to be rain with a chance of sleet in the beginning but turned into about a two hour period of heavy wet snow that accumulated about two inches before turning over to some light drizzle with temps about 33 degrees.

Please let the ICON be right just once lol

It’s hell on vehicles too.

Thank you voice of wisdom. It’s a discussion. That’s what you do in a discussion. You discuss things. Doesn’t mean it’s what you actually think will happen. And just my two cents ... don’t tell people to relax. It doesn’t come across well.

Anything is better than brine and salt. Personally if it were up to me I’d ban both.

Haha, no. I do know reliable things to look at. The gfs will always over do cold outbreaks and a deep freeze in Alaska is not good. But that can be temporary. In 85 right before the mother of all cold outbreaks, IIRC, places in Alaska were something like -80. And for the record, I consider a mid winter cold outbreak to be highs in the teens and lows near zero. Not highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. But who cares. It’s been cold enough for snow but there’s been little precip which I’ve said forever is the real problem most years.

He understands what everyone should. Those maps are useless.

Reminds me of the old Atari game breakout

A cold Alaska isn’t usually a good sign for us IIRC

Hope March isn’t but hope April/May are because I’m tired of cold springs

My forecast temps keep climbing with each forecast

The cold front this weekend is now looking particularly brutal

About another 0.25” here overnight

Nobody does it better than the Alaska forecasters. Only there will you see a forecast that reads “a chance of snow. Highs -5 to 25, lows -20 to 10, chance of snow 50%” ... and see the same forecast for days

12/16/20 - 9.25” 12/17/20 - 0.25” 1/31-2/1/21 - 8.00” 2/3/21 - 0.25” ________________________ Total - 17.5”

Some people just don’t understand weather