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WinterWxLuvr

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Everything posted by WinterWxLuvr

  1. A really early call would say this ends better. I’ll grab a towel just in case
  2. Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see
  3. Mine are 1. It’s been a terrible model so far this winter 2. It has more waffles than Waffle House 3. It was an awful run out here 4. I’m disregarding it in favor of the snowiest model
  4. It has a pretty big h5 change at 78 over the previous at 84. But it’s the NAM so I don’t think it matters either way.
  5. I think this one has big potential, but yeah, that one would have the sky is the limit potential
  6. I’m thinking Alabama would be a perfect spot for development
  7. I don’t know why the negativity. For me, this evolution is more likely to produce a big storm that the previous scenarios. That sw is digging. Get it digging a little further west with a little better tilt and that’s a whopper IMO.
  8. Starting a thread should have never been uttered. When models go back and forth like this, it makes me think that others here are right about not knowing until this storm passes.
  9. As many have stated, clarity isn’t coming soon. Two days? Personally like many of you, I think we need at least some model consensus that there will even be a “storm”
  10. Thank you. You know will be able to sleep with both eyes closed.
  11. I trusted the GFS, but it was not showing snow. But now I don’t trust it when it is showing snow.
  12. Funny you mention that. The euro at 12z yesterday put that very storm into my head
  13. Your last paragraph is 100% spot on IMO. That is where forecasting is going. Especially with AI exploding on the scene, analyzing past scenarios, incorporating what happened in time from those initial observations, and calculations that bring in biases and errors will end up being the way that weather is forecast.
  14. At this point I just want any storm for Tuesday. I’ll take my chance with type. I’m far more concerned with suppression or basically a nonexistent system.
  15. It isn’t true. It’s wishful thinking. Sometimes they go right on by to the south.
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