WinterWxLuvr

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island.

Good point. We have a very diverse climate in this sub. The climate in Harrisonburg, Winchester, Martinsburg over to about Baltimore north is very different from the region south and east of that. Not even close really. I see posts all the time talking about a string of bad winters. Going back just a few years, 2018-19, 2020-21, 2021-2022 were good winters here. 2019-2020 and last year were bad. I’ll take 60% and be just fine.

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread.  So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month.  According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras.  Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about.  So I don't get where the March optimism comes from.  

 

Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960.  

Well, February counts also

It’s gonna snow. Probably in about 4 days. Someone earlier mentioned the trend of storms this year to trend south. They’ve also been trending wetter lately. I think we are gonna end happy this year.

On 1/21/2024 at 7:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

With the euro moving south, the GFS very close, the Canadian suppressed, I’d say there’s still a chance for the weekend.

@stormtracker I’d like your acknowledgement sir. Thanks in advance

We need a thread by tomorrow. That way when it turns to shit, we can close that thread and start a new one 48 hours out

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this happens it's going to be the Stormtracker-Man storm.

Hey, we need to talk. I’ve been on this for days. You’re not excluding me.

Favorite novelist of our day?

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I think we might be the only ones into this. 

You’re not

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Similar to the GFS, it would need to come together a little faster and further south for our region. The general setup has looked interesting even at range. Lack of cold air has been the big issue. HP is in a nice spot- important with a marginal airmass. Verbatim the Euro is a paste bomb and it mostly works because of the quickly strengthening low close to the coast. Places that get snow would be rain initially then flip to heavy wet snow with column cooling.

What I noticed on the 12 Z run was the euro was indeed slower. I’m not certain of how much further south it might’ve been. But if this thing does trend just a little bit slower and a little bit further south, we could be looking at a significant event for at least part of our region 

The changes over the past 48 hours in the euro have been pretty large. It’s now in the place the gfs was then. The gfs which changed quite a bit in sending this system into the Ohio valley hopefully will return to its roots. I just feel we are so close to an event that might produce for at least some areas of the forum.

It’s gonna snow

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

Feb of 2015 here saw 28/28 below 32, 10/28 days the high was below 32, 8/28 were less than 10, 2/28 less than 0, 19/28 less than 20. The average temp for the month was 25.6 and that was 8.9 below normal, which is incredible for a monthly avg.

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, we're not keeping one eye half open about the Sunday thing?  It's the longest of long shots, but I mean..there's a high right there. All we need is to thread the needle, and an eclipse or something

Oh yes. Some of us are watching closely 

1 minute ago, str8liner said:

It will be nice to not having to listen to my furnace running 24-7 which ultimately makes my bank account get smaller.

 

No models needed to forcast that. 

Most here would take a second mortgage if it meant cold and snow.

Lol, the gfs looks tropically warm over the next 10 days. No chance of anything frozen in this Africa type heat.

5 at KOKV

It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit.

Ravens probably don’t need to worry about NFC teams just yet

15 hours ago, Ji said:

Please stop posting garbage in the long range thread. There is a banter thread

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Bump

With the euro moving south, the GFS very close, the Canadian suppressed, I’d say there’s still a chance for the weekend.

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then.

Guaranteed by then, and likely before

My WAG is we won’t be waiting until mid Feb for a snow chance. Thinking next 10 days provides another chance

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That can work, esp for inland at elevation. My point is the bigger issue in the advertised pattern at day 10 is not the Pacific (it is pretty damn favorable-jet extension!!). If the NA was more favorable at that time (-NAO) the overall pattern would be more conducive to colder(snowier) for the MA. This isn't a binary thing.

I like the look in the west. Even with a not so good Atlantic, we could luck up and have one storm act as a temp block and the next one deliver.

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its dumping here again. Another streamer. Gonna have to up my total when its done. What a storm. 

Remember I’ll need your total. Up here on LI it only snowed about an inch or so but there was some snow already here and it was beautiful 

If one is gonna be bad, it’s better that it be the Atlantic. The flow that CAPE posted can produce cold temps and modest events, even if they are quick clippers and cutters. Canada doesn’t get flooded in that pattern