jculligan

I'm heading down to Massachusetts this evening until Friday afternoon, then traveling back north to Jackson Friday evening. I have about two feet OTG in my yard right now, so it'll be interesting to see how much survives the inevitable torch. I'm hoping CAD saves the Mount Washington Valley for most of the day tomorrow, but I'm sure there will be at least a 12-hour period of rapid melt tomorrow night...especially at my 1500' elevation. Hopefully we only lose 6-8" but I get nervous when I see dewpoints nearing 50F in the forecast. We'll see. I hope the Greens really cash in with the post-frontal upslope on Friday and then the follow-up clipper system on Saturday. Planning to take the girlfriend and her 10-year-old son over to Stowe on Monday in search of better snow.

Looks like some opportunities for the Vermont folks to pick up some snow on the back side of Friday's system, then again with a little clipper Saturday afternoon/evening. Maybe a couple/few inches in the northern Greens from both systems? Little hope here in the eastern Whites and I envision ski conditions won't really improve here until warmer temps arrive early next week. Looking farther down the road, I'm cautiously optimistic about the Thursday/Friday period late next week. Looks like an opportunity for an SWFE type system on both the Euro and the gfs. The gfs is particularly robust with it. Things were really good here about a week ago, so hopefully this current stretch will be just a temporary setback and late Feb/March will deliver the goods once again.

Lost a good 6" of snow between Friday and Saturday, but man were conditions great yesterday. I skied the Doublehead ski trail twice in the afternoon and it was super soft and springy with bumps that had a perfect flow to them. Hands down the best it has skied all year. Today will be an entirely different story. The gfs is trying to spit out some QPF here with the inverted trough tonight, so maybe we can squeeze out a coating to an inch. Otherwise we aren't looking at much now until the cutter at the end of the week, which looks to be another huge hit to the snowpack. Those cutters with 50-degree overnight temps are notorious snowpack annihilators, so I really do hope something changes. I'd estimate about two feet OTG right now.

March 2001, March 2007, March 2018 are probably top three. 2001 was probably the biggest, and that's a bitter pill for me to swallow since that was largely due to one of the most historic busts of all time in the NJ/NYC area (where I was living at the time). I remember watching Paul Kocin on TWC displaying a map of 20-30" forecast across the entire state of NJ, but the storm shifted north at the last minute and pounded New England instead. As a high schooler and TRUE weather weenie at the time, it was devastating! Meanwhile up north, some parts of NH (even outside of the mountains) had a 40" depth that lasted into early April if I recall correctly.

Low of 36F here at 1500' in Jackson. This was the first night that failed to dip below freezing in many weeks. I'll have to get out into the woods to do some depth measurements today, but I don't think we've lost more than a few inches since our peak depth of 33" was reached on Tuesday. Maybe we have 28" OTG now? But the melting has certainly accelerated today with higher dewpoints. 47/34 with a gusty west wind currently.

I think Crescent Ridge may be calling my name soon. How's your snow depth shaping up these days?

Ended up with 6" on the nose here. The temperature did briefly spike all the way to 40F when the sun came out this afternoon, but it was short-lived and doesn't seem to have made too much of a dent to our very robust snowpack. Back down to 29F now. My peak snow depth last winter was measured on February 22nd, which is likely quite early for this location compared to climo. With 30"+ on the level right now and at least 2-3 weeks until our climatological peak depth, I would imagine we have a fighting chance of reaching a 40" depth this season which would have seemed nearly impossible just a few short weeks ago. The rest of this week looks quiet on the synoptic front, but I'm not writing off the coastal system early next week as our next potential. In the meantime, I'm looking forward to more tolerable temps this week.

I'm one mile from the Black Mountain parking lot and immediately adjacent to the Doublehead Ski Trail. Conditions are superb right now!

Drove up from Boston early this morning. It rained all the way to Ossipee, briefly flipped to snow in Tamworth then changed back to rain from Chocorua Lake all the way to Center Conway. Changed back over to snow in North Conway where I stopped for a brief ski tour on Peaked Mountain, but even North Conway flipped to rain prior to my departure around 10am. Here in Jackson...no rain to speak of. There was 5.3" of new snow on my driveway when I arrived home, and it continues to snow big fat flakes at 34F. Our settled snow depth is up to 33" which is 10" deeper than at any point last year. The pack has a LOT of water content in it. I know this area is particularly known for snowpack retention, but I feel I didn't get to test that last season. Hopefully we don't HAVE to test that for a while yet...

5.3" of snow here in Jackson with a settled depth of 33" OTG. Snow continues to fall but it's up to 34 and the roof avalanches have begun. Deep winter out there either way.

Haven't really been tracking this one closely - had family from Georgia visiting this weekend, and I'm actually down in Massachusetts until tomorrow morning. It'll be interesting to see how much snow is waiting for me when I return north! This should get our pack up and over the 30" mark.

Late to report my final tally but I measured 14" total here. We have about 28" of snow OTG right now, which exceeds last year's peak depth by about 5 inches. Looking forward to the next event on Tuesday!

10" new here in Jackson NH. 23 degrees with steady light snow.

It was a 2.9 magnitude quake centered in Gorham. We felt it here in Jackson too. My whole cabin shook and there was a rumbling noise outside like I've never heard before. Confirms that I don't ever want to experience a moderate or large earthquake lol. Back on the weather side...I measured 4.5" at 1am and a whole lot more fell overnight. I'll go out for an updated measurement around 6:30. 24F with steady snow at the moment.

I'm down in Massachusetts at the moment, heading up north around 6pm this evening. Model output looks unanimously good for me, Phin, and a lot of the VT posters in here. Precarious forecast for the Lakes region and points south - the cutoff in snowfall amounts could be quite cruel for those caught on the wrong side of it. I've been away from the board for the last several days, and I'm sure there's been discussion of the icing potential in southern NH in the actual storm thread. To me, this does have the classic look of an ice storm where perhaps some of those "weenie maps" won't be too far off (normally I reduce those maps by at least 50 percent). But the fresh input of cold, dry arctic air feeding into the system and a couple waves of low pressure rippling along a stalled frontal boundary with many hours of light to moderate precip looks like a classic setup for someone to get a heavy glazing. Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and Merrimack Valley perhaps? Either way...keep that stuff south of us!! This is the mid-season kick our ski season has been so desperately needing up north.

I was away for the weekend down at Okemo VT, where we had a whopping 0.3 inches. I got back to Jackson late this afternoon and it definitely snowed here, but very hard to say how much. My front walk had anywhere from 2" to 7" depending on where I stuck the ruler, but this was a good 18 hours after the storm ended. It looks like a handful of coop observers in the area measured anywhere from 2-3" so I'm going to have to rely on their measurements for this one. Looking forward to Thursday night/Friday now...

Can't help but feel giddy watching the trends today...especially the most recent NAM. I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on that model more than 24 hours from the event, but it's fun to look at and imagine how things COULD unfold ha. I won't be observing this event from my normal location in Jackson; my girlfriend's son is turning 10 this weekend and we're spending tomorrow through Sunday at an Airbnb near Okemo VT. Jackson looks to be in better position synoptically, but maybe the Green Mountain spine can work its magic and provide just enough enhancement to tack on a few more inches in that location. One can dream.

It was a slow climb for most of the day, but after starting at -3F we eventually crept up to 32F about an hour ago. It has since settled back to 31F and we'll probably hover in this vicinity until close to sunrise. It's in the mid teens down in the valley, but I'll take the inversion as long as it stays near/below freezing. About 14-15" of snow OTG here. After Monday's dense snowfall, I'm giving the Sherbie an attempt in the morning. I'm sure there will be some rocks and water bars to be aware of, but in general it's probably skiing fairly well now. Hopefully I can snag a lap just before temps take a nosedive as the arctic air moves in tomorrow.

Hard to say how much we ended up with here. The wind was insane, so drifting was quite an issue. Depending on where I stick the ruler, I'm getting anywhere from 7-16 inches. Taking the mean measurement, it looks like something in the vicinity of 10-11" is probably most accurate. It sure was pounding for a time, just didn't last as long as I had hoped!

Hard to say how much we ended up with here. The wind was insane, so drifting was quite an issue. Depending on where I stick the ruler, I'm getting anywhere from 7-16 inches. Taking the mean measurement, it looks like something in the vicinity of 10-11" is probably most accurate. It sure was pounding for a time, just didn't last as long as I had hoped!

-9F for the low here. We've had as many sub-zero mornings this week as we had all of last winter. Looks like plenty more to come, too. Not going to fret over the NAM with an event that is still 48 hours away, but man...that is a warm look. At face value we'd flip to rain at 35F by midday Monday. The gfs and Euro are certainly colder, so I would imagine the NAM will adjust as we get closer, but it's hard to brush it off completely when we've had such rotten luck these last two seasons. It has become quite easy to look for ways to be disappointed lol.

12z Euro ensembles couldn't be much more ideal for my area. 60% probability of 12"+ right imby. I think we have quite the thump coming up this way.

My girlfriend and I have decided to check out the Wilderness area this coming Sunday. It's a bit of a long trek from Jackson, especially for one day...but we're itching to get into the woods for some off piste skiing, and that won't be happening in NH until after Monday's event (hopefully). It sounds like the Wilderness area is already skiing well, so we're going for it. I'm really looking forward to it!

This morning's gfs is quite robust for my area. I think my location will have the perfect juxtaposition of sub-freezing temperatures and upslope flow. Down on the valley floor, low level temps could get a bit marginal for efficient snowfall accumulations by mid to late Monday afternoon (though most of the QPF could be done by then anyway)...but here at 1500' I don't see much chance of going above freezing, and these east/southeast LLJ scenarios often result in a QPF maximum somewhere between my location and Pinkham Notch. Thinking Black Mountain could end up being the snowfall jackpot for this one, at least locally. And I would argue there isn't any mountain in New England that needs it more. It's obviously way too early to get super specific with localized minima/maxima but I have noticed Wildcat can sometimes get less if there is even the slightest southerly component to the LLJ. It happened during the 1/16 event last year when I managed 8" in my location, then noticed an immediate reduction in snowfall amounts as soon as I drove past Pinkham Notch and lost just the slightest bit of elevation on the other side. It'll be interesting to see how the models resolve the low level wind trajectories as we get closer to the event.

Quite a winter weekend shaping up between the arctic blast late tomorrow into Saturday, and the winter storm on Monday. Projected wind chills by Saturday morning are downright scary. I got out for some morning laps in the sub-zero temps this week, but I think these wind chills will be enough to keep me indoors Saturday morning lol.