jlh

28.5 in northern Currituck County, flurries finally have broken through the dry layer.

Aww man, that's no good! White knuckle for sure! Glad you got through that without issue

welcome back

MyRadar on desktop, RadarOmega on the phone.

Their most recent discussion mentions the possibility later if things play out a little more enhanced than present thinking.

Its out

Starting to see some very light returns on the radar between Charlotte & Richmond, and it looks like some fill in down by Jacksonville, NC.

You may not be looking at it wrong, but models have different strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, the GFS may not be the model the forecaster chose to go with when they did their model verification. Also have to take climo and outside factors into account when reaching a forecast conclusion. Take a look at some of the higher resolution models for today and get a general feel for them together. But no model will be 100% correct, that's part of the fun in this is to see what actually happens and which one got close in the end.

28 degrees with 12mph out of the north. 1/2 inch of snow on the ground from the frontal passage. Awaiting the next round.

Not to mention you have to factor in local effects whether it be tertiary or other considerations, model biases & weaknesses, model resolution issues with terrain influence and know just what items models are not programed to account for in the local/regional environment. Too many folks these days see the models as a tell all when they are just meant as a tool for professional interpretation. Lot more goes into it that the public doesn't realize.

Front passed through Moyock, NC 30 minutes ago. Temp dropped from 58 to 44 so far. Rain a few miles up the road.

They won't see that in the form of Snow, this almost always checks out as sleet or ZR. Plus their ground temps are in the 50s. As a home grown south Texan I can tell you that will be a few slick bridges and tiny ice cycles hanging from street signs. Don't get too affected. They are probably wishing for what NC has a chance at, even if it is small.

Just noticed that as well.

This actually wouldn't surprise me one bit. Early Jan '17 storm did the same thing for Hampton Roads. Was supposed to be a light to moderate event, if my memory serves me right we were even calling ~2-4 inches in the Navy weather office ~24 hours out with models having gone back and forth with moisture. The morning of the event the models flipped to more moisture and Norfolk ended up with 9 inches (more in spots). Ain't over till its over.

No kidding, I can't recall an event that lasted that long in HR if that verifies.

I was in Texas at the time of the 2004 event you mention, but was working at FWC in Norfolk for the '17 event.

3k NAM, Euro and GFS have the 2M temp below OC between 0Z and 6Z Friday (Thursday evening) at Moyock and HR so I am thinking if that holds true, most of the night below freezing with the ground already near freezing should allow for surfaces to freeze by the middle of the night. NWS is calling for temps just above freezing later on Friday briefly, but models aren't agreeing with that and if enough frozen precip falls before that point it likely won't make it above 0C at the surface. Lots of unknowns for sure but erring on the side of caution because of that and data pointing to a Thursday night freeze, that's what I am going with.

Definitely can't say I agree. Friday morning's commute will have some issues in places with it getting progressively worse.

Same re: Moyock. Looking at the models we should be getting down to freezing right around the time you would be starting your drive with precip already in the area. Drive careful.

Reminds me a bit of Jan 2017.

Juicy snow totals for NE NC if it happens as depicted on these. NWS Wakefield seems to be buying off on a warm nose holding for awhile, will be interesting to see where that sets up as to if the higher totals in NE NC actually realize. I saw the warm nose in the forecast soundings from the 12z in yesterday's GFS but haven't seen the latest if it has been consistent or not.

We live very near you then, most of the local folks are giving an onset time in the early morning hours Friday. So if you are flying into Norfolk Friday morning you might be cutting it kind of close. NWS has mentioned an inch of snow overnight Thursday with Hampton Roads not expecting a break between systems.

We'll certainly take the rare true hit. The last run kicked up our totals a bit, if it holds true should be one of the better events we've had the last several years. Seem to recall January 2017 had a similar coastal run, though the precip shield came further inland that particular event.

I think what I was looking at was onset through about Friday mid morning or so. The forecast sounding had a very slight and pesky warm nose around 750mb but it definitely does erode, as you mention, to favor snow later Friday until the end of the event.

Seems plausible, models seem to hint at a pretty good hit for snow where we are in far NE NC too, though I am wondering on the latest runs if the cold will be think enough for all snow. Seems to be a trend of the sleet/fzra encroaching a little further NW from the coast. Guess we shall see what plays out.