vortex95

Can these stupid models make up their mind?? They have been oscillating back and forth for days w/ this system and the snow shield SE sections! What is it w/ this pattern that is making something that should be straightforward a challenge. It not like it is a monster sfc low! Oh, and the reason for the problem BL temps? Look at the 42 hr NAM sfc/pcpn fcst I attached. Um, no high pressure anywhere to N of us. Just low pressure, so no CAD! How often do you see that w/ a low pressure off the East Coast moving NE???

One item that stands out to me for the Sat event, when was the last time you saw that much snow forecast by the models w/ a sfc low passing well N in Quebec and sfc winds blowing the "wrong way" (SW) for a widespread accumulating snowfall, esp, in SNE? I can't recall an event quite like this. And the trough/sfc low is rather MEH. It seems counterintuitive, but the 18z HRRR and RRFS are in excellent agreement (snowfall 10:1 totals attached). Kuchera ratios are better for the higher elevations, showing up to a foot in srn VT. That is remarkable, given the synoptic setup! The odd and piecemeal/selective winter for New England snow events continues, and ern MA centered near Weymouth continues to be "flanked" on all sides, missing out on most events, while other areas are not doing too bad for seasonal snowfall, all things considered. And to add insult to injury, another oddity. It is the coldest time of the year, and a storm goes OTS, yet there are BL temp issues for ptype over SE MA and RI for the precip that makes it in?! This is what happens on Sun. W-T-F???!!! Maybe I shouldn't have said that, just drags down CoastalWx more!

57 still.

11 years

And in DC, it's not as good as I thought, at least on the N side of the Beltway. The downslope effect from the high terrain not far to the W stiffs me in Silver Spring a lot. Just E blows up big time on the Chesapeake dew point front/breeze. Seems like about 20 mi N and 20 mi S of me do well more often. Just location I guess. The thing is I am at 390 ft elevation, so not total downslope. Nevertheless, I have had some doozies and several supercells pass right over me. Had LTG hit the building and for the first time two years ago I actually heard arcing ZZZTTTT!!! (not click-pops, much louder and distinct) from a strike about 100 ft away. And thunder acoustics unlike anything I had heard before a couple of times.

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never get big tstms" here. Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart! Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing. And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023. He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS. High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains. I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead. My best chase days were in SLGT. Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

Wow, that much optimism so soon? Just how many times the op runs have had something "out there" in the long range, and never deliver. I don't see any real change to the NAMR 500 mean pattern UFN. In others words, MOTS (more of the same). "Cold 'n dry, kiss'em GOODBYE!" CoastalWx is getting so *sick* of these nickel and dime events, like what is coming up on Saturday. He can't even enjoy that in Weymouth b/c it will be too mild!

But the GDPS has something still?! Roll the dice. GFS/GDPS says YAY, and ECMWF/UKMET say NAY. With CostaslWx's luck this winter, he'll roll snake eyes!! LOL.

Moon dimly visible?

The CoastalWx dream scenario from the 12z GFS! Max right over Weymouth!!!

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not tilted below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL. Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!

I storm chased in the Plains most years 1992-2016.

Yes, IIRC, when you mentioned the Dec 1994 hybrid storm (really a 70 kt hurricane, and the it will likely get included as one officially once the Hurricane Reanalysis Project reaches the 90s - it is in the early 70s now), I went to CoastalWx, "how did you know about that?!" Well, a valid question b/c there was no snow w/ it!

06z GFS a bit odd. Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.

He is just so much an uber snow weenie, probably the biggest one I have ever met, esp. in attitude and mood (up and down so much, depending on the pattern). I worked w/ him at WSI for a number of years, so I saw the entire gamut/range what it takes to be a snow weenie. We went back and forth on events so often. And even 10 years ago, he was still king of the number of posts on AmericanWx, and I used to say "where do you get the time???" And he would say, "a lot of the them on are other subforums like in sports" "Yea, right!, I would say!

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned. This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging. This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)! It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!" And the eventual sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs, w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well. CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!" In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good. But as usual, it's all in the details. First, the good: 1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special." 2) Great amplified ridge western U.S. 3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL. Now it does. It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there. Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft! 4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl. Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis. The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt. Now for the "problems": 1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it. Not good. And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it. This is not how KU snowstorms occur. 2) I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec. It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough. This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event. 3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal. So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics! Some musings/caveats: 1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N? 2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be? How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all? 3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all. You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind). 4) Snowfall gaps or spotty. Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent. GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent. Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" And so many on social media are acting like, "THIS IS IT, the BIG one!" just salivating over the 500 height anomalies colors (color table chosen make all the difference!), and saying something like, "something GOTTA happen w/ such wild anomalies like this! Big ridge in the W and intense trough in the East, good enough for me!" and just run w/ "end of days" hype. Well, we don't live at 500 mb, and just b/c the 500 looks great, does *not* mean the sfc is great. And they fail to see the finer details of the pattern I mentioned above that can totally ruin things.

I bet this is what has gone though CoastalWx's mind already!

Came across this. Sub in last time 6" and Weymouth MA, and we have the meme for CoastalWx's sentiment these days! LOL.

CoastalWx knows what's wrong with this map! "Why is it...?!"

Outstanding!

I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense. I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8. They could not be any more different. The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS. 850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada. The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US. In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof! What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS. GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B! Odd. Which one will "win?!"

And here are all New England tornados 2020-2024. Path Path Time(EST) Width Length -------- ----- ------- ME JUL 11, 2020 1431 0k 0inj 100y 5.1m EF0 OXFORD/CUMBERLAND - Tracked from Hiram to Sebago. Trees uprooted/snapped with a roof lost to one structure. CT AUG 2, 2020 1636 0k 0inj 30y 0.3m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Sharon with uprooted trees and a greenhouse destroyed. First of four tornadoes from the same supercell. CT AUG 2, 2020 1705 0k 0inj 100y 1.7m EF1 LITCHFIELD - Second tornado from the same supercell with many trees uprooted/snapped in Falls Village. CT AUG 2, 2020 1736 0k 0inj 100y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Third tornado from the same supercell moved through Norfolk with tree damage and powerlines downed. MA AUG 2, 2020 1758 0k 0inj 100y 8.1m EF0 BERKSHIRE/HAMPDEN - Fourth tornado from the same supercell with a track through Sandisfield, Tolland, and Blandford. One home damaged and many trees downed. CT AUG 4, 2020 1240 0k 0inj 25y 50y EF1 FAIRFIELD - Waterspout associated with Tropical Storm Isaias moved ashore in Westport. Considerable damage to one home and several trees snapped. NH AUG 22, 2020 1145 0k 0inj 50y 1.5m EF0 BELKNAP - Tornadic waterspout tracked southeast over Lake Winnipesaukee near Moose Island. NH AUG 22, 2020 1305 0k 0inj 50y 1.7m EF0 CARROLL - Trees uprooted/snapped and minor damage to two structures in Center Ossipee. CT AUG 27, 2020 1424 0k 0inj 75y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Damage confined to trees in Kent. CT AUG 27, 2020 1436 0k 0inj 20y 100y EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Woodbury with numerous trees downed. CT AUG 28, 2020 1453 0k 0inj 500y 11.1m EF1 NEW HAVEN - Southeast track through Bethany, Hamden, and North Haven. Significant roof damage to structures and many trees uprooted/snapped. Damage $500,000. MA OCT 7, 2020 1650 0k 0inj 50y 0.5m EF0 NORFOLK - Tornado embedded in downburst winds in Millis. Damage confined to trees. ***** VT MAR 26, 2021 1240 0k 2inj 75y 0.7m EF1 ADDISON - Tornado associated with bow echo segment moved through Middlebury. Many trees downed and some structural and vehicle damage. CT APR 21, 2021 1349 0k 0inj 30y 1.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Kent. CT JUL 18, 2021 1711 0k 0inj 75y 1.9m EF0 TOLLAND - Track through Somers. Over two dozen trees uprooted/snapped and two vehicles destroyed by falling trees. Spawned by a low-topped supercell that contained no lightning. CT-MA AUG 19, 2021 0915 0k 0inj 50y 4.7m EF0 WINDHAM/WORCESTER - Discontinuous path through Thompson (CT) and Webster (MA). Damage was confined to trees and power lines. Path ended as a waterspout over Lake Chaubunagungamaug. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 19, 2021 1230 0k 0inj 35y 0.5m EF0 WORCESTER - Trees downed/snapped in Clinton. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 23, 2021 1042 0k 0inj 10y 0.8m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado moved northwest in Marlborough. Tree downed on two vehicles. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1130 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 WORCESTER - Brief tornado in Bolton with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1210 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado in Stow with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1429 0k 0inj unk unk EF0 WORCESTER - Waterspout on Sunset Lake in Ashburnham. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA SEP 2, 2021 0030 0k 0inj 15y 0.1m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Short track through Dennis. Damage to two homes and three trees downed. Associated with former Hurricane Ida. CT SEP 9, 2021 0310 0k 0inj 75y 0.8m EF0 TOLLAND - Over 50 trees snapped/downed in Coventry. CT NOV 13, 2021 1530 0k 0inj 100y 3.6m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tracked through Cheshire with significant tree damage and two vehicles crushed. First of five QLCS tornadoes in CT/RI on this day. CT NOV 13, 2021 1544 0k 0inj 300y 1.9m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tree damage in Branford. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1648 0k 0inj 100y 6.1m EF0 WINDAM/PROVIDENCE - Path from Plainfield (CT) to Foster (RI). Damage confined to trees. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1654 0k 0inj 100y 1.4m EF1 NEW LONDON/WASHINGTON - Tracked from Stonington (CT) to Westerly (RI). Over 20 trees snapped/uprooted and minor structure damage. RI NOV 13, 2021 1718 0k 0inj 150y 1.5m EF0 WASHINGTON - Path from North Kingstown to Wickford. Numerous trees uprooted/downed and several power poles snapped. ***** NH MAY 16, 2022 1722 0K 0inj 330y 4.8m EF1 SULLIVAN - About 1000 trees snapped/uprooted with several power poles downed in North Charlestown and Claremont. VT JUL 18, 2022 1750 0k 0inj 50y 0.9m EF1 ADDISON - Multiple trees uprooted/snapped with one structure collapsed in Addison. VT JUL 18, 2022 1755 0k 0inj 25y 0.7m EF0 ADDISON - Tracked through Waltham and Vergennes with minor tree damage. Spawned by same supercell that produced the Addison tornado. NH JUL 18, 2022 2122 0k 0inj 250y 0.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - About 200 trees uprooted/snapped and a few outbuildings destroyed in Chesterfield. CT JUL 28, 2022 1735 0k 0inj 300y 5.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Track from Norfolk to Colebrook. Sporadic damage to trees and minor structure damage. ***** VT JUL 13, 2023 1704 0k 0inj 20y 11.9m EF0 RUTLAND - Track from Benson to Brandon with numerous trees downed and several utility poles snapped. MA JUL 16, 2023 0956 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 WORCESTER - Discontinuous path in North Brookfield. Damage confined to trees. NH JUL 27, 2023 1350 0k 0inj 200y 12.7m EF1 CHESHIRE - Moved through North Swanzey, Marlboro, and Dublin. Around 1000 trees uprooted/snapped with vehicle and minor structural damage. Tornado lasted 22 minutes. MA JUL 29, 2023 1917 0k 0inj 25y 0.2m EF1 NORFOLK - Damage mainly to trees in Foxboro. MA AUG 8, 2023 1020 0k 0inj 300y 0.9m EF1 PLYMOUTH - Numerous trees downed and snapped in Mattapoisett. MA AUG 8, 2023 1052 0k 0inj 650y 1,2m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Track in Barnstable. One tree and utility pole downed. CT AUG 12, 2023 2000 0k 0inj 30y 0.8m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Tracked through mostly open fields in Roxbury. CT AUG 18, 2023 0653 0k 0inj 200y 2,7m EF1 WINDHAM - Over 100 trees sheared off or downed in Scotland. RI AUG 18, 2023 0740 0k 1inj 250y 9.1m EF2 PROVIDENCE - Strong tornado moved through Scituate, Johnston, and North Providence. Vehicle lifted on I-295 with one injury. Hundreds of trees uprooted/sheared off and three homes with significant damage. MA AUG 18, 2023 0807 0k 0inj 80y 7.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Many trees uprooted/snapped and some structural damage in North Attleboro and Mansfield. Same supercell that produced the tornado in RI earlier. MA AUG 18, 2023 0837 0k 0inj 35y 0.1m EF0 NORFOLK - Short path in Stoughton with trees downed. MA AUG 18, 2023 0852 0k 0inj 100y 0.4m EF1 NORFOLK - Track in Weymouth. Numerous trees uprooted/snapped and minor roof damage to one home. CT/RI SEP 13, 2023 1500 0k 0inj 70y 1.6m EF1 WINDHAM/PROVIDENCE - Path through Killingly (CT) and Foster (RI). Tree damage and one home with minor roof damage. RI SEP 13, 2023 1520 0k 0inj 70y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Over 75 trees uprooted/snapped and one outbuilding destroyed in Glocester. First of three tornadoes from same storm. RI SEP 13, 2023 1605 0k 0inj 60y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Roof damage to one structure and damage to trees and a solar farm in Lincoln. Second of three tornadoes from same storm. MA SEP 13, 2023 1622 0k 0inj 70y 0.1m EF0 BRISTOL - Three trees sheared off in North Attleboro. Third of three tornadoes from same storm. ***** CT JUN 21, 2024 1554 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Harwinton. NH JUN 23, 2024 1609 0k 0inj 80y 3.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - Track in Dublin with dozens of trees snapped/uprooted. RI/MA JUN 26, 2024 2223 0k 0inj 100y 4.3m EF1 PROVIDENCE/BRISTOL - Tracked through Lincoln and Cumberland (RI) and North Attleboro (MA). A number of large trees were uprooted with some falling onto homes. MA JUN 26, 2024 2229 0k 0inj 50y 0.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Trees snapped/uprooted in Rehoboth. NH JUL 16, 2024 1829 0k 0inj 250y 1.8m EF1 GRAFTON - Over 500 trees snapped/uprooted with minor damage to five homes in Lyme.

Finalized Storm Data is done through 9/30. AFAIK, the 5 in MA on 9/6 is it. However, I strongly believe that there was a tornado at a golf course at Pocasset MA on 11/3 looking at damage pix. There were multiple suspect areas in RI and SE MA from the SQLN, a weak TDS, and rotation signatures. Latest in the year for New England's first tornado (or "spinner" as CoastalWx likes to say!) since 1952 (none that year, but unlikely given much less detection capabilities then). Second most tors from a single supercell on record here. #1 is the July 10, 1989 supercell (7) that tracked from ORH to PYM Co (including an F1 in CoastalWx's hometown of Brockton, but he missed it!). Path Path Time(EST) Width Length -------- ----- ------ MA SEP 6, 2025 1502 0k 0inj 50y 0.2m EF0 WORCESTER - Significant tree damage in Paxton. First of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1506 0k 0inj 100y 0.1m EF0 WORCESTER - Several trees uprooted in Holden. Second of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1508 0k 0inj 100y 0.2m EF1 WORCESTER - Significant tree damage in another part of Holden. Third of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1525 0k 0inj 150y 0.6m EF1 WORCESTER - Many trees snapped/uprooted in Berlin. Fourth of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1530 0k 0inj 100y 2.4m EF1 MIDDLESEX - Significant tree damage in Stow. Fifth of five from the same supercell.

Here's a decoded hourly obs string from the above storm for KFMH. Dendrite nirvana!

I always liked this SPS from NYC for the Dec 11-.12, 1992 blockbuster. They added in the bulletin text at the top "one of the worst coastal storms ever.' This was a time when strong wording was used, you *knew* it was big! Now almost everything is labeled "catastrophic!" Don't remind CoastalWx of this storm. He was SO mad living in Brockton at the time. He was just in a heavy mix of RASN while not less than 10 mi to the NW, buired! This is the one that started the epic period that lasted through 2015-16. 18" in Woburn. I have never seen seen *so* much rain in a first part of a storm, and then *so* much snow a second half of the storm . The total LEQ QPF for the storm was very high for a Nor'easter in a winter month.. Woonsocket RI had 7.14" (20" of that snow)! WWUS35 KNYC 111752 NYZ014>017-023-024-NJZ001-005-007-015-112030- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - ONE OF THE WORST COASTAL STORMS EVER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1250 PM EST FRI DEC 11 1992 ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEARBY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS... ...FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3:15 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...NEW YORK CITY... AND LONG ISLAND... ...STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON... AN INTENSE STORM CENTER OVER DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TIME HAS BASHED THE METROPOLITAN AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AND SOME OF THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING EVER ASSOCIATED WITH A NOREASTER. TIDES WERE REPORTED BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS PUSHED TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING THE ALL-TIME RECORD TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOREASTERS IN 1950. WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING AND DAMAGE WERE REPORTED AT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. THE FDR AND HARLEM RIVER DRIVES HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. ALL THE MAJOR HIGHWAYS HAVE BEEN CLOSED NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WATER REACHED AS FAR INLAND AS MONTAUK HIGHWAY ON LONG ISLAND. SEVERE FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN MONMOUTH COUNTY WITH MAIN ROADWAYS AND THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. SEVERAL TOWNS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE SEA WALL COLLAPSED AT CEDAR GROVE BEACH...A CONDO COMPLEX COLLAPSED AT HIGHLAND. FLOODING HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH UP THE HUDSON RIVER AS PEEKSKILL AND STONY POINT WHERE A TRAILER PARK HAD TO BE EVACUATED. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THREE TO FOUR FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MAJOR FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL STORM TIDE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS MORNING/S RECORD LEVEL. WIND GUSTS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN PROGRESS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...BUT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET... ESPECIALLY ON LONG ISLAND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN NEW YORK CITY... LONG ISLAND AND NEARBY NEW JERSEY AND LOWER WESTCHESTER COUNTY HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND SOME STREAMS IF NOT ALREADY... SHOULD BE OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS. MEANWHILE HEAVY SNOW IS IN PROGRESS THROUGHOUT HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND MOST OF ORANGE COUNTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW HAS DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS WITH UP TO 14 INCHES REPORTED. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES CAN ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CATASTROPHIC WEATHER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IF YOUR AREA IS BEING EVACUATED...LISTEN TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS. IF NOT...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IS IN DOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WINDOWS HAVE BEEN BLOWN IN THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS ITS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DON/T BE A FOOL DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE LIFE YOU SAVE TODAY WILL BE YOUR OWN. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE OUT BY 5 PM. GIGI