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WhirlingWx

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  1. Mesoscale Discussion 0268
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1026 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
    
       Areas affected...parts of west-central GA
    
       Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...
    
       Valid 260326Z - 260430Z
    
       The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.
    
       SUMMARY...Tornado potential will maximize near the GA/AL border and
       eventually spread into the greater Atlanta exurbia through 1230 am
       EDT.  It is uncertain how far east the higher probabilities for a
       tornado will eventually develop due to increasingly marginal
       low-level moisture with east extent.
    
       DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates mid 60s deg F dewpoints
       straddling the GA/AL border in west-central GA to the east of a
       supercell with a history of producing tornadoes (likely strong) over
       east-central AL.  The latest RAP/NAM indicate lowest 100 mb mean
       mixing ratios increasing into the 13-14 g/kg range over the next
       hour with MLCAPE increasing from 750 J/kg to 1000-1200 J/kg.  The
       KFFC VAD showed 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH within the moist/sufficiently
       unstable airmass. Current thinking is the increasingly rich
       low-level moisture (dewpoints rising from 64-65 to 66) may enable a
       greater risk for a tornado over the next hour or so.
    
       ..Smith.. 03/26/2021
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