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40westwx

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, mappy said:

    Oh I’ll make out just fine, probably from both threats. I’ve got decent elevation so I’ll be frozen the majority of the time. But was just commenting on something I’ve noticed that happens up here in these setups. Either the mix line sits overhead, or it’s just to my east and I jackpot

    I was looking at the temps and Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the year for many in Northeast... in this scenario we have a building cold air mass and an exiting storm to usher it in.  I really think that temps break in right direction for us.  My kids and nephew will probably go to Oregon ridge Thurs morning!

    • Like 1

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, mappy said:

    Hell, these setups are sometimes iffy even up my way, the snow/sleet/rain line either sits just to my east, or overhead. Depends on how far west the warm air gets.

    My guess is you will be fine. everyone might see some sleet when the low is just to our se.. but that happens pretty much every storm that wraps up like this.  The front end thump will be where we cash in. I have this feeling we will trend colder in over the next few days!

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

    Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. 

    The Primary low looks to develop over Panama City Beach Florida.. the one in TN doesnt seem to be the dominate one anymore

    • Like 1

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, mappy said:

    Moved this here -- you made a valid point that I listened too. I've backed off my "no banter" bullshit, and have let it go, and have bantered along with the rest of them.

    So which do you prefer? No banter for all? Or banter mixed in with the discussion? you can't have it both ways. 

    Banter is fine in any thread as long as we put little buttons on that say "the following post may contain sensitive information to some readers, click here to reveal content" .. then if someone posts too many maps, we can automatically assign a tag that says "Posting images without analysis is misleading and brings little to no value to our forum" and then @Ji automatically gets "This claim about snow is disputed".  And @DTWXRISK gets "Many outlets have called this storm differently"

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, jaydreb said:

    On the one hand we are still 5 days away.  On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early.  

    Every model and pretty much every ensemble is showing a significant snow event in our area... not sure if this is one of those big ones.. but we are certainly in the "this is really gonna hurt if it fails zone" at this point

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 
    
 With the high centered to our north, we look to have sufficient cold air
at the surface as the energy from the low to our west transfers to
the coast and precipitation overspreads the region Wednesday
morning. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists
with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure
tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva
Peninsula. Still plenty of time to watch this one at Day 6, but
certainly bears watching given the above. For now, am advertising
rain/snow mix east of the Blue Ridge, with snow the favored ptype to
the west Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

    yeah the placement of that HP is exactly what we need.  There is not a ton of Cold Air around but I really wasnt surprised when I saw the GFS trend colder this last run.  The ensemble support is very encouraging. 

    • Like 1

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

    You need to get out more if your coldest ever temp was in Ocean City in 2018. 

    I have been to Montreal (when I was still allowed in Canada) where it was like `-10... but it was under a big dome of high pressure.. no wind.  

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 hours ago, H2O said:

    That had the coldest temp I ever remember as a daytime high. Was single digits. 
     

    I had to thaw frozen water meters all that week. You ever fish out a wrench from the bottom of a water meter filled with water in sub 32° temps?  Imagine almost burning off your face and eyebrows when you get a flare up of natural gas when you use a propane torch to thaw a frozen meter for a homeowner so desperate for water they give you cash. Had to refuse or get fired. 

    The coldest temp I have ever exp in my life was Jan 1 2018.. I was driving Uber in Ocean City.. i think it got up to 12 but the wind chill was way below 0.  I have been skiing in sub zero temps.. but nothing compares to that day in OCMD.  

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 hours ago, H2O said:

    That had the coldest temp I ever remember as a daytime high. Was single digits. 
     

    I had to thaw frozen water meters all that week. You ever fish out a wrench from the bottom of a water meter filled with water in sub 32° temps?  Imagine almost burning off your face and eyebrows when you get a flare up of natural gas when you use a propane torch to thaw a frozen meter for a homeowner so desperate for water they give you cash. Had to refuse or get fired. 

    I have a hard time remembering the 90s.. 

    • Haha 1

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

    That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows.

    I remember 2003 was initially forecasted as a snow to rain event of days out.. and then as we go closer and closer to the event.. temps got colder and colder

    • Like 1

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

    1608141600-S9R5r3Dn5AE.png

    I dont know much about nothing.. but something tells me temps will not be a huge issue with the placement of the high and the blocking pattern that is setting up.  It seems like temps come colder when we get a block... Dec 2009 was a great example of that..

    • Like 3

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CAPE said:

    Clearly they are one of the best teams, and in the end every team is what their record says they are. If you do the analysis though, it reveals they are on the same level as a handful of other really good teams.You tend to miss the subtle points, so I will agree in general and leave it at that.

    Yeah I get it.. they clearly are not the 2007 Patriots... It is really hard to keep winning in the NFL and I think when you have a long winning streak.. the choke factor sneaks in a you psych yourself out.. I think thats what happened to the Ravens last year... 

    but the WFT beat the steelers the way you have.. play good defense.. dont make mistakes and capitalize off of opportunities.  

    Fun game to watch.. probably the first time I have ever rooted for another team :)

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