40westwx

Yesterday I called Wisp to see if they were opening next weekend and I got a young snow lover on the phone... I asked her how they were looking up there, how it has been for the last couple of winters... she was really depressed.. she told me that they only got 40 inches of snow last year. She said that they used to get 200 inches per year and it is never coming back like it used to. That actually worried me a little bit. not because I thought she was somehow right but that people actually think that.. So I told her a story.. in 1992, me, my mom and my grandmother toured around ocean city to shop for the family condo that we still have today. I remember looking out over the beach from the balcony and the agent saying.. "you know in 30 years all of this might be under water".. I told the girl over the phone that every year since then I go down to the beach and remember that conversation and take a mental note as to where the water is.. And go figure.. the water comes up to the same spot it did the year before. I told her.. you will get your 200 inch year.. you will get it very soon.. maybe this year who knows.. I told her to come join us here! we talked for about 15 min.. she is real real snow lover!

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/flu7/GetPhase07InitApp?appVersion=Public

Good point.. it honestly must have been very hard for them to "subtract out" the covid deaths.. given that death public death certificate data from cdc includes all deaths. To exclude that would be one heck of a project. Anyway, I did the calculation for them and it worked out to be 9.09.. source is here https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/flu7/GetPhase07InitApp?appVersion=Public .. I can share my source code for the calculation if you like.. so I guess we saw somewhat of an uptick in mortality this year.. historically we were at about 9.5 has a high watermark in the 60s and then it declined to 8.0..then it rose to 8.8 over the last couple of years.. then a little more in the last year. This past year could have been covid and it could have been collateral lockdown damage.. who knows.. but the fact that we are even having that debate is really enlightening.. if the range is 8.0 to 9.5 and we are in the middle of the greatest public health crisis of our life time and we are well within the goal posts.. It makes you question what is actually going on? In reality I think it is the fact that hospital administrations completely botched the initial response to the corona virus based on ignorance and fear.. What do you expect is gonna happen when your first line of defense is to put someone in an induced coma and on a breathing tube.. it is really sad and I hope to see at a minimum punitive litigation as a response to this... Really interesting finding is that heart disease deaths are way way down.. I guess thats a #2020 thing. It looks like we found the cure for heart disease!

Another interesting thing is that if you go back 75-80 years, the birth rate skyrocketed to levels our country has never (and probably will never) see... The crude increase from 2013-2014 was about 200,000 extra deaths.. I guess when you have a baby boom.. you get death booms to on the other side.

In other news... the mortality rates for 2020 were just released (cdc does it in season.. September to September) The death rate - deaths per 100,000 people was about the same as the last few years: United States - Historical Death Rate Data Year Death Rate Growth Rate 2020 8.880 1.120% 2019 8.782 1.120% 2018 8.685 1.220% 2017 8.580 1.240% 2016 8.475 1.270% 2015 8.369 1.270% 2014 8.264 1.290% 2013 8.159 0.090% 2012 8.152 0.090% Crude death rates jumped by a couple 100 thousand, and thats on par with jumps we have seen in previous years. Every year about 3 million people die... so to see a spike in a couple hundred thousand is normal.. also remember our population growth rate is also at 1-2%.. thats six million people a year. The jump in 2013 to 2014 is an interesting one.. I feel like it has to do with some sort of improvements in reporting or something.. kinda like when temperature reporting in urban areas increase exponentially and all the sudden annual global temps rise..

The jump in 2013 to 2014 is an interesting one.. I feel like it has to do with some sort of improvements in reporting or something.. kinda like when temperature reporting in urban areas increase exponentially and all the sudden annual global temps rise..

Other really good news is that the mortality rates for 2020 were just released (cdc does it in season.. September to September) The death rate - deaths per 100,000 people was about the same as the last few years: United States - Historical Death Rate Data Year Death Rate Growth Rate 2020 8.880 1.120% 2019 8.782 1.120% 2018 8.685 1.220% 2017 8.580 1.240% 2016 8.475 1.270% 2015 8.369 1.270% 2014 8.264 1.290% 2013 8.159 0.090% 2012 8.152 0.090% Crude death rates jumped by a couple 100 thousand, and thats on par with jumps we have seen in previous years. Every year about 3 million people die... so to see a spike in a couple hundred thousand is normal.. also remember our population growth rate is also at 1-2%.. thats six million people a year.

Wow what i have ever done to you? Shit got real around here Ji! she is not messing around anymore. Over the summer we had a covid thread and people couldnt handle it.. now it is Banter or bust.. and in Banter you can only talk about Micro brews

How do you get in to the political forum?

I bet you did...

Did you see it?

The key thing is you have to watch the entire thing.. with the narration. without that, you dont really have the context to understand what is actually happening. My favorite part is the end where the Women says the video was debunked... that google fact checked it and said that what happened in crystal clear/ plain view actually didnt happen in reality.

you will eventually see it.. right now every major news station is having a heated debate on whether or not to show it. They wont.. but you will see it

Holy F.. did anyone watch that video?

PSU is an easy one to annoy.. it is just for fun. He is the only one that is taking it seriously.... I remember once I told him that the "constitution is not optional" and he went on an afternoon long tirade about it!

Thing is Lamar is ver perdestrian this year.. they have been playing pretty well even without his magic.. if rg3 can calm down and manage the game.. I think the Ravens have a shot..

19 pages in this thread on December 2nd.. and we havent really had one legit threat yet.. boy do we need a snow storm

ha ha. this is true.. but whatever.. its really warm

I keep seeing some nice ns energy dropping in... I think we will need that sort of thing this year.

The 540 0 degree line is new york

Thats bad news IMHO.. the only way to save this country is to cut off all of this aid and let the markets take care of it. Same is true for schools.. if people want something to change.. we should boycott taxes or layoff teachers. Once you start making hard decisions.. backing people in to a corner.. sensible solutions will come

I am somewhere between Herd Immunity and Full on Denier.. but anyway.. UPM executive reported that of all hospitalizations the vast majority of them were for overnight observations only. Not counting deaths where COVID was present and but there was an obvious separate cause, he indicated that they had 0 deaths in the latest surge. How do we go from a couple hundred thousand cases in a 3 weeks and 30,000 people dead in the spring in NYC to 200,000 cases a day and no deaths?

The vaccine facilitates/ accelerates herd immunity.

down in my part of the woods.. the only thing your allowed to say is stuff that is almost delusional.. like "kids dont spread corona virus in school"

Its called the "Upstate NY Coronavirus and Banter" thread.. so I would think that this would include opinions from both sides. If it is just a place to post the daily positivity rate and pretend that kids dont spread corona virus in schools.. than maybe I should be be cancelled/ censored.