40westwx

25 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

I agree.  The Ravens are playing well, but they need a lot of help too. 

Even if Pittsburgh loses the last 2, they also have the tiebreaker with the 2 HTH wins.  At least we should be able to root for the WTFs. 

 

On another note, all 3 of my kids are starting hoops soon.  The two in HS are scheduled to have their first game on Jan 6th.  The one in college starts official practice Jan 4 and should have a game schedule starting with conference play in Feb.  

 

I will say that both the High School and D3 programs are taking the proper measures to ensure the kids are safe and practicing social distancing.  No parents are allowed to watch the HS games, but all of them are going to be streamed to watch live.  I'm lucky in that I'm clock guy, so I get to be there for my senior's games. :-)

Nice!  You should checkout the Giant Pharmacy.. they are doing antibody tests for $30. Everyone in my household was positive.  We did it in anticipation of the vaccine rollout.  I wanted to see if we had gained natural immunity and not take someone else's spot who actually needs it.

7 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

Water temp issue can be a bit tricky. During early summer, the thermocline is shallow, so it is fairly easy to upwell cold water. Due to Ekman transport a sea breeze can provide swells, but also move warm water offshore and pull cold water to the surface. Later in the summer, the warm layer is thicker and more difficult to upwell cold water. Where I live in Cape May, one must be careful looking at water temps in the spring and fall due to strong influences from the shallow Delaware Bay and adjacent marshes. For example, in the fall, after a cold night, if water temps are sampled in the morning during low tide, you would get an artificially low temp. Opposite holds in spring. Our latest temp is 41. That’s a bit influenced by 2 cold nights in a row. 

Thanks  thats what i wanted to say but I dont know as much as you do!  

1 hour ago, toolsheds said:

If the ravens win out, they still might not make the playoffs.  Last night would have been a big help, but hopefully Bofalo beats Miami next weekend.  

I don't see the Steelers beating the colts or Cleveland next weekend. 

I give it about a 15% chance of that happening.  The teams they are worried about (Cleveland, Miami, Indy) would all have to collectively go 6-0 in the last two weeks against tough schedules.. 

It pains me to say this but I think that there is a bigger chance that the Ravens trip up in the last two games..

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

He sometimes lurks but left the board. Busy with life stuff yadda yadda. 
 

we need a bingo spot for “where’s bob chill” @NorthArlington101

has he really been lurking?  I check every once in  a while.. would be nice to know he has been lurking

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 2011 it truly ended and never came back  

I don't know about up there but according to this website:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

The last 10 years at BWI have had the snowiest Marches in the last 50 years.

30 minutes ago, REH said:

https://seatemperature.info/jersey-shore-water-temperature.html
this site says it’s 47 degrees currently. Average for January is 43 degrees so I wouldn’t say it’s abnormally warm at the moment 

The water temps can vary up to 10 degrees day to day depending on currents and upwelling on the east coast.  I can't tell you how many times I have been out one day before a storm to catch a big swell and the water was toasty and then the next I needed a wet suit.

That same site shows this variability in min/ max tables...

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Feel free to spend some time with exhausted recycled arguments in the climate change sub forum 

The funny thing is is that I wasnt even sure what that guy was talking about until you jumped in to talk about climate change.. it is such a tiring dead end/ frustrating topic..

I suspected that this is what he was referring too.. and I wanted to point out that it really has no bearing on our chances for snow/ snowstorms... 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It means the climate is indisputably warmer now than it was 20, 30, 40, or 50+ years ago. 

sigh...

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Well it did puke out this random gem. No real support on the ens though.

 

Last three runs of the gfs and last night's euro all show a deep area of LP forming to our south and east. 

29 minutes ago, frd said:

Only this year,  and in this new warmer background state, does a deep - AO and -NAO produce no significant snowfall for us. 

what the heck does that mean?

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging,  but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs,  but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away!

10 days away before we start seeing snow storms show up on the models or 10 days away from Snow Falling from the sky?

16 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

If you use the new NWS radar it isn't, wait.....that is just it trying to load up.

thats because our government outsources its software projects to big govt contractors who in turn farm out the jobs to foreign h1b visa holders who participate in fake interviews to get jobs that they are not qualified for to get paid only a tiny fraction of what bill rate is.  

Merry Christmas!

I just want to leave you all with this very special song.. one that reminds us all just how lucky we are.  Merry Christmas everyone!

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 

 

That map looked awful.  Basically it says that there really arent any chances of snow in the short, medium or long range...

But we no this is not the case... I would actually be surprised if we DON'T get  snow storm in the next few weeks.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit).

I remember getting a foot of snow on new years day one year.. not sure which year it was.. but it happened

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro is at least interesting. I don’t like the chances of snow Christmas Eve but you never know. It’s the Monday system that’s intriguing 

yup.. get a good track and worry about temp and p-types later

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Forum is jumping today. Are people actually working?

Seeing that all I have to do to work is join one or two status calls per day and push around emails and instant messages..  I have a lot of time for snow storm tracking..

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

DT posted about the pattern reminding him of '96.

There is nothing wrong with comparing the upcoming pattern to the HECs years... nothing wrong with it all.. It is frustrating when people get sarcastic about it.. and mock people who make those comparisons.. 

We are just trying to have some fun and fantasize about snow.

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES.

Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect.

regardless of what the snowfall totals say.. thats a weenie run in my book.. I will take my chances with anyone of those...

22 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So there were definitely some slick spots but no, it was not closed at all hahaha. The rocks were mostly navigable. The sun had dried them up enough to where most didn't have any real ice or snow on them. It was dicey in a few spots but honestly, the bridge to the falls was more sketchy (completely ice slicked) than the dried out rocks.

I love that trail!  I just discovered it this year and I only live about 35 miles away in Catonsville.  It is a great workout and scenery is amazing.  

Thanks for this report.. cause we were just talking about doing it yesterday but we werent sure about whether or not it was too slippery or dangerous.

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You late bro.

And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing.

At this point it is not DT hype.. its kinda GFS and Euro/ good pattern.. there are a lot of chances hype..

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Best since ‘96 

Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too?

3 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable.

I would have liked to have been at that meeting.. but seriously the GFS is showing some text book stuff i the long range... today might be a really fun day around here!

2 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles

If you are new you should check this out.  It is super helpful!
 

I recommend reading through the thread above and then going to tropical tidbits and filtering for Northern Hemisphere as the region and choose 500 MB height anomaly for the plots.. then let us know which one of @psuhoffman looks the GFS is showing in the long range..

Just now, howrdcounty snow said:

tyvm for analysis

lol.. I dont know what I am doing.. but yeah it looks like it might snow in the next week or so