40westwx

and Letlow died of a heart attack

The little question mark says:
 

"The NCHS surveillance data based P&I percentage for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. This number indicates the percentage of all deaths that are expected to be reported that have been received in the system by the date of the report."

33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Nope. Listen, you've been shown data consistently through the beginning of the pandemic that this is not the flu and you continue to ignore it. 

What I posted was the total deaths for week 40 - 49. The CDC says that these weeks are 100% complete.  Here is a small portion from the User Interface:

Total Deaths: 

10 weeks in 2018 - January - March: 614,497

10 weeks in 2020 - October - December: 602,574 

These numbers are 100% complete for both years.

I know two people who died of COVID 19 - 

1- my tenant - who was a recovering alcoholic, COVID hit and in person meetings ended - he relapsed and drank him self to death - negative covid test

2- friends mother - nursing home neglect.. wasnt allowed to leave her room, blod clots, stroke - negative covid'

Both cases, the family had to fight to get the cause of death changed on the death certificate (both we initially COVID)

WTF is going on here?

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

Read the caveats. The mortality data for the past several weeks is incomplete. If you look at it on a regular basis, the last several weeks go up. 

Thats why I cut it off at week 49.  We are in week 52 now.  They give "percent complete" and week 49 was the last week that was at 100%... 

I think the numbers right... 

Actually @OSUmetstud I am reading the disclaimers on the cdc website and it looks like they are the gold standard for mortality.. those weekly death numbers are pretty much dead on... 

How is that possible?  How can we have 1.5 million people a week getting COVID 19, but the weekly mortality statistics look like a bad flu season?  

I am so confused.

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

91 million, 28% of the US population

Sorry to hear that about your uncle. Both of my grandmothers and my aunt died of Pneumonia but they had a plethora of other health issues leading up to that.  I wish him the best..

regarding your post, 91 million people have contracted covid 19 and the Crude death numbers for the last three months are less than that of the three month period to start 2018 (our last bad flu season).

Something is not right...

Do you think that the death numbers are simply wrong?  That many many more people have died in the last three months than what the CDC is reporting?  I have attached the raw data.

season58.json season60.json

Interesting article about Nursing Home Neglect and excess mortality:

https://apnews.com/article/nursing-homes-neglect-death-surge-3b74a2202140c5a6b5cf05cdf0ea4f32

BTW.. Letlow died of a Heart Attack.. in case you are confused

7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

For those that don't follow me on Twitter:

Today was a rough day. My parents let me know that after 13.5 years and raising him from an 8 week old puppy, we had to put down our family dog. He went downhill very rapidly under suspicion of a malignant brain tumor. I wish I could've held him and pet him one last time. What a horrible way to end 2020. Hopefully it snows tomorrow night and Thursday, but I'm beginning to have doubts. This year can pound sand. 

Sorry to hear that.  I just lost my dog a couple of weeks ago.  It rough.

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The infotainment system. What vehicle do you have?

2020 Honda Accord.. I just googled the Infotainment system and it is an aftermarket add on.. my car already has the TV.. it just wont play any other video other than my rear camera.

One cool thing is though is that it drives its self.. I figured it out the other day when I felt the steering wheel moving on its own on cruise control.. so I figured.. lets see what happens if I just let go ..

And sure enough I went from College Park to 50 on the DC beltway without any steering or pedals.. 

Thats why I want the video.. if I can get video with the autopilot.. its almost like your not driving!!!!

Does anyone know how to get the tablet thing on your car to play video from your phone? I cant figure it out.

I am talking about the front thing that shows your Maps, backup camera, radio etc...

7 hours ago, Amped said:

Maybe it'll trend east

 

 

yeah it is disgusting over their.. I have been begging my wife to hop on a plane to portland and go to mount bachelor for the weekend.. but you know.. Corona.. 

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I actually despise working from home.  I am unable to do half of what I need to, and the half I can technically do online is much less efficient because of network issues and difficulties in communicating with coworkers.  I go in as often as possible.

yeah me too actually.. its awful.. I work part-time for this one company and I do a daily status call where everyone on the project is supposed to report progress.. there are 45 people on the call.. only me and another part time guy actually report a status.. noone else says anything.

I have confirmed that all of them are 100% on my project.. but I have no clue who they are and they definitely dont do anything. 

So this whole WFH thing has really proven that the Government is committing fraud by collecting tax money and giving it to people to attend a couple of meetings everyday.

What really surprises me is that half the employees in the country can get sent home and nothing happens.. like no systems fail or payments are missed. 

Its almost like people are employed to either - 1) they can be billed out and made profit on or 2) so that big bueracracies can justify ever expanding budgets.

in reality its kind of a mix of both.. 

its like we dont actually live in capitalism anymore.. 

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Vacation, baby!!!  Woo!!

side note to that was all 3 kids today asked why I was home on a Monday. They just expect me to be at work all the time. I think I work too much

you dont get the free - be once a day zoom meeting / excuse to collect to paycheck?

I actually feel bad for anyone that actually has to go to work these days.. 

literally everyone I know just logs in to one or two zoom meetings a day to talk about their feelings and attend some periodic training seminar on work place equity and they can collect a pay check...

Even the teachers at my kids school get the free pass.. although their meetings are like 2 hours in the morning and an hour in the afternoon.. 

jeez back in the 80s Nate Newton said on camera... "We've got a little place over here where we're running some whores in and out, trying to be responsible, and we're criticized for that, too." and that was just shrugged off..

And now a guy goes to a bar and gets released?  They are literally ruining it for everyone

7 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Everything else i agree with except the strip club part. That's an integral part of ones youth. 

Did he get released because he went to a strip club?  If so, he should take that up with the union.  

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But are we not still closer to it now than we have been the last 6-7 winters?

look at the post above with the graphic from 2016.  That was a pretty classic look.  

59 minutes ago, Ji said:

i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO

 

 

yeah we dont.. and I looked back at the GFS and Euro and it looked like a few weeks ago we were forecasted to go negative by now.  Its elusive to say the least.  

here was the look in 2016 before our big storm:

This is what the GFS keeps advertising in the fantasy range: 

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Canadian leading the way? 

Yeah.. it looks like it lets the energy in the SW hang back long enough so that the Friday system and the Monday system merges together as one event.. which is almost a snow storm for us.  Fun stuff

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Eps wants nothing to do with the Jan 3rd coastal that the OP showed.

Wow... look at the difference on the EPS from 24 hours ago... 

00Z yesterday

00z today

If we see another trend like that.. we are looking at a legit CAD event.

@psuhoffman you were right about the models struggling.

Just to demonstrate how much the GFS is struggling with the medium range I have two maps.. Below is the SLP plots from the 6Z run of the GEFS on December 26 (48 hours ago)

And here is the SLP plots for the same time period from this mornings run:

7 hours ago, nj2va said:

CMC keeps me frozen for the duration of the storm (sleet to start then freezing rain).  Too bad CMC is a terrible model.  I do think it bears watching for the far N&W areas for some frozen to start before flipping to rain.

lol... didnt @psuhoffman say two days ago that the models were struggling with this time period and they he wouldnt be surprised to see a shift to a colder look for this storm?

17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Is it a good sign that In the long range thread that there is a page of arguments over water temps?

 

I think someone said that water temps were running 5 degrees above normal off of Cape May.. and I think they were insinuating that this had something to do with global warming or something.. just wanted to make sure that those types of posts are immediately stomped out.. there are other places to talk about that.