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40westwx

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    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

    Why does everyone always point this storm out? Am I the only one up here now that experienced that storm while remembering @Ji saying he wanted to kick a puppy he was so mad. I got 17” a couple miles south of Norfolk in that storm.

    it was the worst tracking experience of my live.. worse than March 2013. You have to remember it was Christmas and up until 12/24 Baltimore was forecast to get 6-10 inches.  

    It turned out to be snow tv for me... 

    • Like 1

    Coronavirus

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 12/30/2020 at 11:28 AM, RyanDe680 said:

    And let's stop the seasonal flu bullshit.  The flu does not cause blood clots or heart attacks.

    neither does COVID19.. but you know what does?  Nursing home neglect/ isolation.

    • Confused 1
    • Weenie 2

    Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country.

    This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

    That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza

    you have to subtract the "dying with covid" as opposed to "dying from covid".. after that you will get to around 0.57%

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, WxUSAF said:

    Let’s just say this. Anti-government employee rants are not going to go over well and won’t be tolerated on a website where many of our most valued posters are government employees. So anyone who doesn’t like that can feel free to leave. 

    LOL.. I am a government employee

    Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

    wow... I noticed that Corona Virus was a real headline in the news in California.. so I decided to run the excess death death data on 2018 compared to 2020 for just the state of California:

     

    { season2017_2018: 60285, season2019_2020: 56423 }

    WHAT????

    HOLY F... 4000 LESS people have died in the last 10 weeks in California than died during the first 10 weeks of the flu season of 2018.  This shit is being manufactured on Social Media.  

    I HAVE NO WORDS

    Except the ones above grounded in facts and evidence

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Ji said:

    there is a chance this -NAO pattern fails and the GFS shows why. There is hardly any cold air. Even with great storm tracks, everything is still very marginal.

     

    there is no place in the USA or even Canada that is uncomfortably cold here on this image during the coldest part of winter.

     

    gfs_T2m_namer_51.png

    Blame it on the "new warm background state".. lol.. the one that features -80 degree temps and 1020 highs across siberia

    Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    21 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

    There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. 

    Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

    I would argue it is not small.. every person I talk to about Corona Virus, I ask them one question.. "do you know any one who died of it"

    And almost invariably the answer is "you know its weird.. but I dont".. but I do know people who have died from collateral damage.  I gave the two examples above about my friends mom who died of nursing home neglect and my tenant who relapsed and drank himself to death in isolation.  But I forgot to tell you perhaps the most eye opening case of all.. the other day I was getting a ride home in the courtesy shuttle from my car dealership and I started talking to the driver about the "pandemic" and I asked him the same question.. 

    He said yes.. his wife, after working 30 years as an RN in an Orthopeadic Surgery facility was laid off from her job.  About a month later she fell in to a deep depression, became addicted to opiates and overdosed. 

    Think about that for minute.. 

    Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Syrmax said:

    I've been looking at excess mortality #s since early on and there has been an increase above what normally be expected in just about every nation that keeps track of this stat.  Unfortunately, its hard/impossible to definitively separate true covid deaths from knock on effects of pandemic restrictions, which are real, and contribute to mortality. Possibly more real then some of the covid-19 cause of death assignments, at least in the US.  Whether any of that is statistically significant remains to be seen.  A lot of that type analysis will be "soft" in nature due to differing methods of assigning cause of death, etc.  May be years before this is fully determined, if ever.

    The US saw excess mortality that was indeed quite alarming in the second quarter of 2020.  We had several weeks that were over 75,000 deaths per week.  This was unprecedented and confirmed exactly what we were being warned about. But as the year went on, something weird happened.  The number of corona virus cases sky rocketed while the weekly mortality held steady. And as demonstrated by the CDC flu and mortality tracking data, the Corona virus in the second half of 2020, looked more like a bad flu season than the big bad pandemic it was made out to to be.  What happened you may ask?  A lot of people point to the "feel good" justifications for this:

    • we are getting better at treating it
    • younger people are being infected
    • masks are decreasing viral load, leading to more asymptomatic cases, in effect making infections act more like inoculations.

    Thats great and all, but you need only look a little closer to find out what really happened.  In the spring of 2020 the vast majority of the excess mortality occurred here in the north east.  Much of it was focused on the nursing homes and  palliative care facilities.  When panic set in, the elderly were immediately ordered to their rooms where they were isolated from care takers and forced to give up on daily activities.  Nursing home neglect, acting as the "tipping point" in the already fragile system, led to a systemic emergency where patients (in mass) developed many complications including blood clotting and worsening cardiovascular disease.  When these patients did arrive in the ICU, if there blood oxygen fell below a certain point, the "one size fits all policy" said:

    • put them in an induced coma
    • put the room under negative pressure
    • put them on a feeding tube and run the tubes out of the room to limit exposure to staff
    • if they crash.. let them die.. again to reduce exposure

    Hospital bureaucrats didn't realize that an immediate result of placing people in mass in medically induced comas was organ failure.. specifically kidney failure. Many hospitals didnt have enough dialysis machines to keep up and many died waiting for treatment.

    Today, COVID-19 patients are treated with steroids, put on cpap machines and kept in the hospital overnight for observation

    And thats the difference.  When the doctors were allowed to use their judgement and years of experience to attack a problem in a sensible way, common sense solutions prevailed. 

     

    Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

    December 23rd update to December 30th update

    Week 48>+7361 55748 to 63109

    Week 47>+2984 61323 to 64307

    Week 46>+1536 63592 to 65124

    Week 45>+882 63163 to 64045

    Week 44>+541 62641 to 63182

     

    here are my numbers for 2020.. these include the updates you are talking about:

     

    weekNumber totalDeaths
    40 57,667
    41 59,097
    42 57,489
    43 58,833
    44 59,659
    45 62,697
    46 63,321
    47 63,941
    48 62,063
    49 57,807

     

    but the fact that we are even comparing this:

     

    Total Deaths: 

    10 weeks in 2018 - January - March: 614,497

    10 weeks in 2020 - October - December: 602,574 

    These numbers are 100% complete for both years.

     

    is ridiculous... Given the response.. There should be no comparison.  

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