MN Transplant

0.55” which brings me to 0.89” on the month.

Euro with a solid 1" in the metro corridor.  

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m getting intrigued for the late week storm. Good track, high to the north…temps are a little warm, but hopefully dynamical cooling will help 

48 and rain, baby!

13 hours ago, Ji said:

Crazy Joel embids real estate agent is the 2001 bust meteorologist John Bolaris

That is a bizarre find.

The good news from the models is that none of them are really showing a true failure mode.  They all have widespread precip, almost all 0.5"+.

In my mind, a 2015-16-like season is still a winner because it contained a truly historic snowstorm.  I think it would be different if we were talking about a region wide 12-18” storm.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I didn’t pay close attention but isn’t it much warmer than forecast today?

Yes, an overperformer.

Globals are liking Saturday evening for rain.  Deterministic solutions generally from 0.5” to 1.5” and ensembles over 0.75”.  That would be extremely welcome.

Wind just kicked up.  The tree parts barrage is on.

After that washout weekend, I’m now at 0.06”  in the last two weeks.  The pollen is everywhere.

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got almost nothing here in Ashburn. Ridiculous 

0.01” at IAD, 0.02” in Falls Church, 0.51” at DCA

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Storm blowing up right now over Falls Church/Arlington. Sun’s out here with thunder and dark clouds just to my north. Hopefully we get clipped by some rain. 

Blew up right over me but that meant the backside came quick.  0.02”.  

0.02” DCA

0.01” My house

0.00” IAD

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It’s nice out, but the pollen has been killing me

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Where's the winter 23-24 thread!?

Ian's on top of it:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/14/drought-conditions-dry-dc-virginia-maryland/

Moderate drought for the DC area

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Exactly - by late summer we're banking on tropical systems, which might be an issue this year.

The good news, I just ran a very rudimentary analysis of Jan-Apr vs May-July precip, and there is a positive correlation but it is so slight as to pretty much consider it random.

3 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

I thought I remembered some sort of water restrictions a long time ago, and found this article from 1999:
Washingtonpost.com: Region Learned Lessons From Past Droughts

I was 19 at the time so didn't really care about water :). Thought the article had some good insight into what happens when we get dry. One thing people around here really don't think about are wells. Even here in howard county the entire western part of the county is not served by public water. Might be 20-25% of the county population.

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999.  In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain   

All we need to do is complain!

35 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Really the point I'm trying to make is that we don't really "drought." We get dry, but how often are things so bad that we need to think of it as a drought? And if we're like 5" below normal precip over a few months, people start talking about it, but if we're 5" above normal precip over a few months, there's virtually no discussion.

I'm definitely playing devil's advocate in here, but referring to dry periods as "drought" does trigger me

I think it is precisely because we are in a relatively wet part of the country and don't get droughts that the dry periods seem so anomalous.  Our vegetation is acclimated to regular precipitation and then there are H2O's water supply comments.

The concern arises if the dry pattern continues into summer.  That's where the evapotranspiration maxes out.  And the other problem is that as we go into later summer the chances for organized convection nearly vanish.  So, you get only spotty dry relief.

I guess I'm saying that this is a notable start to the year and could portend problems down the road, but a few well-placed systems could also bring us right back to normal.  So, only a slightly elevated level of concern so far.

Just now, H2O said:

This here.  I can 100% tell y'all that when spring and summer hit the main drain on the systems are lawn watering that runs for hours.  Most water tanks basically get dragged down starting at 5am.  Water utilities basically spend all day keeping pace with demand and never refilling those tanks until 11pm when people start to go to bed.  

 

The entire night is spent refilling tanks for the start of the next day's demands.  I hate sprinkler systems

 

I'm sure there will be plans to expand treatment plants again soon due to ever increasing demands.  The fact that it costs what it does for water is amazing.  And remember its NEVER water that costs as much on your bill.  75% of a water bill can be from the sewage charge which is based on water consumption which is another reason not to water lawns.  

Yes!  You are paying for the sewage charge no matter if your water is going there or not.  

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm not really interested in watering my lawn. Garden? For sure.

 

I never have to water my front yard, but for whatever reason my backyard fescue is really susceptible to dry periods.  I tried avoiding watering and not really treating it last fall (new puppy), and it looks absolutely terrible right now.  Worst spring in the last 10 years.  

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

What exactly is a squeegee line lol

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A negatively tilted upper level trough will dig into the Ohio
River Valley on Sunday as the associated low moves over the Great
Lakes. A few models show the trough becoming cutoff as it moves
eastward creating uncertainty in the forecast. Either way, the
associated cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night bringing rain showers and thunderstorms. 12z
guidance from both the ECMWF/GFS have the front arriving in the
west of the Blue Ridge after 22z/6pm before pushing eastward
late Sunday night into early Monday morning. As for severe
weather, the threat is dependent on timing. The earlier the
front the more CAPE to work with compared to the latter. For
now, thinking a "squeegee line" of gusty showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm Sunday evening into Sunday night. CAPE values sit
between 400-800 j/kg with 0-6km bulk effective shear values
modeled at 45-60kts. Wind would be the primary threat from this
line as it pulls through. Much needed rain will also accompany
this boundary, but not enough to quell the current drought/fire
weather concerns.

Ha, interesting.  I would interpret this as a thin line with dry conditions behind.  It does look like DPs in the 20s/30s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

30 minutes ago, George BM said:

IAD tying the record of 87F so far.

87s across the board so far including at my house.

DPs generally in the low 40s except in Central VA

...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CULPEPER*      SUNNY     86  34  15 SW9G16    29.96F                  
CHARLOTTESVILL SUNNY     86  38  18 VRB5      29.96F                  
WARRENTON*     SUNNY     87  25  10 S9G16     29.95F                  
ORANGE*        SUNNY     84  39  20 W5G17     29.97F                  
STAFFORD*      SUNNY     92  29  10 S3        29.94F                  
FREDERICKSBRG* SUNNY     87  33  14 SW10      29.93F                  
LOUISA*        SUNNY     85  37  18 SW10G17   29.97F 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

What I find interesting is that when things are dry, there's this big concern about "drought," but when it's been wet there's basically no discussion about it. I guess that's because there's no term for anti-drought except when there are flooding concerns.

It is a 100% IMBY game.  I conceptually hate using water for lawns/gardens.  It is so energy intensive to provide clean drinking water and I’m just going to dump hundreds of gallons on the ground because it won’t rain?  Awful.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Most of the concern is because peeps don't want to have to water plants/lawns lol.

I am good with abnormally dry in the early Spring. Wetland never really got wet this year- just some spotty, very shallow areas so it was an easy(and cheaper) job to larvicide. With the early heat and leaf out, that area will be completely dry in no time.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saturday looking like it could be the bulk of the rain? Rain with the front seems to be petering out.

And the coverage tomorrow on the models is not widespread.