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ADB83

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Everything posted by ADB83

  1. ADB83
    Moderate sleet in Walkertown. 14.4/11
  2. ADB83
    Still sleeting in Walkertown. 19 but it feels like single digits. It’s COLD
  3. ADB83
    Moderate sleet in Walkertown. A balmy 22 degrees
  4. ADB83
    I do think this is gonna end up doing better with the sleet versus freezing rain than the HRRR.
  5. ADB83
    Latest HRRR is similar to previous runs, but these models are mostly sticking to this idea of some sort of freezing rain squall line coming through at least western North Carolina tomorrow evening. It looks weird and not right. Would be interesting to see if it verifies.
  6. ADB83
    NAM much more in the sleet camp than HRRR for a much longer period of time.
  7. ADB83
    This freezing rain squall line that has become kind of model consensus is really weird looking, if it verifies, it will be high rates at least which is actually better with ice than just the drizzle
  8. ADB83
    NAM continuing to show the dry slot. Also has a nice little line of rain going through Raleigh at the end lol
  9. ADB83
    They will soon. Hope everyone is ready.
  10. ADB83
    It is currently 41° in Winston-Salem and as warm as it’s gonna be for at least a week. Enjoy these last few hours of the 40s if you live in the Triad because you’re not gonna see them again for a while
  11. ADB83
    WFMY 2 in house model has a very brief period of snow for the Triad with around a 6 PM onset and then changeover to freezing rain at 7 AM Sunday morning. Tim Buckley sounded very sober in his 8 o’clock update. Not a tone I’ve heard a lot from him. Definitely sobers me up too thinking about the storm.
  12. ADB83
    Feels like not so much the calm before the storm but the deep breath before the storm because I’m old enough to remember 2002 pretty well and it sucked. And I think that’s the best analog here. I also think some posters here have not emotionally recovered from the rug pull this week lol
  13. ADB83
    I’m in Winston-Salem. I fully expect to never make it above freezing even though Raleigh might briefly and that the sleet will hold on longer than most people are forecasting. Although I do think WFMY 2 probably has a good handle on it
  14. ADB83
    There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in
  15. ADB83
    Just getting ready for the storm just went grocery shopping at this late hour which is objectively one of my dumber ideas. Euro pretty much in line with a lot of the other guidance at this point. There seems to be consensus for the most part. It’s just about time.
  16. ADB83
    I was going to post the same map Will be on X with little context very soon. If not already
  17. ADB83
    Brad Panovich 11 AM update
  18. ADB83
    A lot of uncertainty still. I have the highest respect as a hobby person for meteorology, and the people trying to forecast this. This region this time of year is just level 10 out of 10 difficulty.
  19. ADB83
    NAM has big dry slot even through south central VA
  20. ADB83
    Yeah that moved a lot, ZR mixes hours earlier and heavy precipitation shifts quite a bit northwest too
  21. ADB83
    GFS still trying to start with snow for northern part of NC
  22. ADB83
    I’ll tell everyone that I’m not paying attention but then watch every model run. It’s a sickness really
  23. ADB83
    The public backlash to this, whether it’s deserved or not, would be to borrow a word that the social media click chasing hype people have ruined forever: EPIC
  24. ADB83
    I don’t really believe it, but the NAM does offer a way out for a lot of us to miss the worst of the ice. It’s certainly possible.
  25. ADB83
    Don’t look now but the Euro about to do it again next weekend lol. Will give you another chance to believe it when it does it again
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