SUNYGRAD
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Everything posted by SUNYGRAD
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I agree with 1-
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Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K.
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RGEM is a tad too warm at 850 on 6z run according to SPC analysis in western third of NC.
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That's pretty cool display of info.
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Who remembers using LFM and facsimile for maps in ether school or work? I was remembering following storms, and it cracks me up with all the data now, it is still tricky.
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MY opinion----I think the NAM maybe a reasonable depiction----maybe too dry in NC. I would not automatically discount. Perhaps scattered precip on Sunday for several hours. The FV3 and HRRR (if you look southwest) maybe picking up on idea.
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My local electric company is referring to the storm as "Winter Storm Fern." for heads up on preparations.
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I like to see all of the 12Z model and ensembles, but the drier solution for NC is possible.
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Any Miller B storm can be tricky, let alone a weaker system. There could be some wrinkles yet to come.
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I'm heading to Linville Gorge and reflect.
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Wow to Weather Channel map
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creates more moisture over NC earlier.
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...and a fair share of ensembles.
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Agree, and in our favor for more snow/sleet.
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Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office
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The High wants to anker in place driving the cold air down for sure.
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Cannot recall seeing these high probabilities in advance (especially for NC) and over such a large area----in several years.
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Fairly impressive 200 MB jet on GFS
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Old GFS playing with us.
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...disagree on 15th/16th just yet.
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Holy smokes for 12Z GFS
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