Ogmios

I tend to see the ICON sometimes as the predictor for the EURO with the track just to my south. Currently only marginal cold air is available on all models so I will not be surprised that either it retains or we see marginal NW trends with the same results of slightly above freezing with a changeover to rain or mix. My guess is only 2-4" of wet snow but maybe even 5 inland with the lower end towards the southern coast".

Even for those that us that get this one very lucky hit near the Valentines storm it is looking like a weak event with a fair 2-4" snowfall event. But what comes after that is a strengthening SE Ridge and a whole lot of rain which is going to melt all the snow. So other then adding stats to the snowfall pack what difference is it going to make in this pattern whether we get none or we get a few inches. The real losers in this pattern is the winter industry beyond ski hills that live in a cold enough climate to make man made snow. Everybody loses, (or wins if you are not a fan of winter) and this winter has lived up to that torch. But mother nature brings cold winters and blow torches all the time. And what we can see is that the pattern for now is set back into a normal climate regime where all those snowy winters for the SNE is an abnormal trend. And if we are back onto the normal trend then the pattern of this year is a recurring every so many years of winter. So expect more more normal AO+ winters and expect more normal AO-. So what I am saying is that we are moving into a new cycle of something. And if you are a snow lover time to cheer for the Eastern QBO and hope for cold and dryer conditions with enough snow to be sustaining on the ground for long periods of time. And for next Christmas let it be white on the ground, it looks pretty that way with Christmas Lights on the deck with all that snow.

We got several hours of freezing rain after about 5 cm (2 inches est) snowfall before it turned to rain and got upto 48 (+9) degrees but it did not melt all the ice and the snow as it was a quick warm-up followed by a quick cold shot. Currently sea effect snow, with a few cm or a 1-2 inches on the ground.

What is crap to us is another mans treasure. So we might wish to consider that the intention of mother nature is to Spring into March with no snow for many who long desired it and got nothing except emotional food stuffs. And I do not foresee a change in this pattern.

Adding to the hammer of despair taken from Brett Andersons Projected Long Term Forecast: The pattern is locked Jawed with ego's bruised. No changes are a foot in here, so take a break and let us see can we spare a 100 degree day in New York on March 5? Hey at least it is something to talk about. Source

A slightly positive NAO is not all that bad for points north of Boston. But how negative is the pna going to be? As from looking into the Environment Canada records I have noticed years where the PNA was negative and we still got crushed with snow events through the maritimes.

All models are subjective no matter what they output. All we can do is observe the results and take all the models into consideration to find if there is a correlation to what is being favored vs why is it going to be with what the pattern is going to be. So it is still data to be considered. It is about the four W's in the A+B which does not equal C in deductive reasoning all the time. We do get surprises afterall out of weather and they are not always good ones, and each can run concurrently long term good, and long term lousy and robust winter and snow busts. From the observational point of view on the east coast we have had 2-3 years of bad teleconnections in a western QBO which is being played out rate now. That QBO onto itself has not transitioned to the east just yet. So that is Wait and See so that we may Discover of what the next pattern maybe the next Great White Hope of Snow for those who are ideologically possessed as Snow Weenies.

Light snow and 21.2 (-6) degrees.

I shall supplement that with this: Humm Lets ride the wind and enjoy the view.

On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map. Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention. However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard.

He certainly is not in that position now, (though he will in a few years be as per occult and esoteric circle) but he certainly likes to control you as he consumes your energy for his food stuff.

Spring will be Spring and Lawn and Gardening is a feature that needs this rain. Too bad it is February and not April when we should be talking about the hits and misses of winter, and instead it is always a miss. So what little snow I still have will be gone after this one.

You do not need Nor' Easter type systems to pump out snow for the maritimes, what we need is for the teleconnections to be less ridiculous then what they are trending towards rate now. I believe we can do well in a slight AO positive environment with a slightly negative NAO and even a PNA that holds in negative territory that does not go below 100 points on a constant basis. In fact last year though it does not seem like it we actual did quite well last year coming out on the cold side of average last year, and if not for the majority of those storms tracking as far north as they did it would have been a very cold winter. The main culprit is the Arctic lockup that allows for the opportunistic oceans to run the show. In January despite finishing below average in snowfall, it still was not all that bad considering and despite ending above average which believe it or not was not to the extreme end of the warmth. In fact there was a three week window except that 14 degree nightmare where winter was winter and we went through a descent snow period up here in the northern valley. Despite what the Kentville records shown where 20 was believable in the first storm of the year and they down played - yes I am saying it for the 2nd storm as it was closer and more believable to estimate the snowfall in the 15-20 cm range. All in all true snowfall was a little over 50 cm in the Kentville area; though they only record snow cover (which in my valuation is a true injustice of keeping real records) in January which is still below average, plus we had 3-5 cm of ice pellets in that ice storm which puts us into three true winter storms that did feature any real winter pattern. This year we are above normal, the trend is our enemy. and mother nature is doing what she wants to do keeping us mild all the time. And duly noted for some Nova Scotians this is the third straight year of a winter that has been less then stellar under performing. But we have the advantage compared to SNE in terms of the Latitude, and I have the advantage over Halifax being inland with the Bay of Fundy if that snow engine can be turned on, primarily I notice under a cold WSW wind direction that can create squalls which was the weather that saved the northern valley from that same fate in the periodically infamous snowless winter of 2018/19, plus March which we had three snow storms while CB got all rain until April. So I do not think we need as much of a flop to save any form of winter as much as SNE needs it, we are far enough north that we could be punished with a runner or two which can stay as snow if that SE Ridge weakens. I would even argue it is inevitable that there snow in the pipeline for Nova Scotia, and based on the EURO predictions of the next 6 weeks it looks as though it may not be s ridiculous concept to not discount any possibility that it will not happen. Even if all we get is 15-20 cm snowfall event. And as for the next winter if it turns out to be forecast to be in Eastern QBO where we are in the unfavorable Western QBO hopefully the west gets a wall to wall winter in that ridge as they are due for a very warm winter out there. Unfortunately there is talk of La Nina being a possible factor, perhaps pay back next year where the east that should be warm in a La Nina gets the favorable storm tracks, as god only knows,

Got to love tracking rain storms eh.But do not worry when Seattle out does Boston this winter we all know what will happen. But perhaps next winter we get a strong ridge over the west and a trough over the east; or perhaps during a La Nina giving the areas that normally get warm some cold and the cold where it is supposed to be warm.

My immediate response would be a Meat Diet but that is your choice to make. And any knowledge beyond that would not be deemed appropriate for the weather forum. And BTW I am designated a mostly diet controlled severe diabetic on a low dose of insulin having lost a toe and Diabetic Retinopathy which is the disease itself that causes blindness. It is not fun facing my potential senior years which is still far away with the possibility of going blind. My mother has also Diabetes on top of her MS which is my inheritance as far as the gene is concern.

Got yea: Primary lateral sclerosis (PLS) is a rare neuromuscular disease characterized by progressive muscle weakness in the voluntary muscles. PLS belongs to a group of disorders known as motor neuron diseases.

It can certainly play on your emotions if you do not have control over them and do not seek to control this mechanization of being a Reaction Machine. And when you attempt to go through a Positive Disintegration through the Developmental Impulses this involves a process of Shadow Work which involves a Neurosis that can play on the Amygdala. And weather to me is an identification of several of my I's, now if only I can develop that 2nd Thought towards the state of Being which is the path of existence to open more free choices. BTW that is view point from a self study of thyself (The Great Work). To which the following comes from the Gurdjieff, Collingwood, and Dabrowski's which is interpretation within the Gnosis course of work.

You do not need to have MS to know that is very much a correct statement to make if your own mother who was diagnosed ass a rare late 50s diagnosis which was originally confused with Brain Cancer and marked for death in three months until diagnosed correctly by a Cancer specialist still has the ability to walk but easily gets tired, and is walking a little wonky to have enough understanding on how delicate that process can be especially the fear which is justified of walking on ice. I am sure you likely have gone through a lot of fear that you seem to not be able to control at times. For anyone who has it and anyone in the circle it is not a fun disease to deal with.

Call it the Next Soaking Rainstorm eh. Maybe you might jinx it.

Yeah it seemed pretty close to those totals near Dartmouth Crossing as I saw today at Costco, as for me 0.0 with still patchy grass and snow. With the good news we are not Southern New England and I am sure we will get another one or two storms of at least 10 cm this season.

WANT and DESIRE! Well I am reminded of an old wise tale that only I can speak to the best of my ability that might sound familiar to some but would most assuredly come out different from their own voice and how their mind projects the story. A group of sheep were captured by this black magician who wanted their wool, and to feed them food so that they could be slaughtered dead on arrival to his dinner plate. At first the sheep would do anything to fight the black magician to keep away from the unpleasant sensations of losing their wool, even to risk death at the hands of their master. Eventually the black magician had to devise a way to get his sheep to cooperate so he tried many things and came up with the solution that in order to get what he wants he had to make the sheep love the sadistic tortures of being around their masters. In other words the reality of their situation had to become one of pleasure to make the sheep love the feeling of death, and torture, so much so that they would love their master and walk up to the black magician. So the black magician hypnotized the sheep, and soon the sheep would no longer fear him and even walk to him as desired ready at a whim to die, and have their wool taken from them. Bit by bit through hard work and step by step the sheep bowed down to the master losing more of their sovereignty and ability to think outside the box becoming disillusioned from reality losing their cognitive ability to discern the real world of what we can call the formulation of cognitive dissonance - essentially we are programmed to be Alien Reaction Machines with no Freewill bound to the goals of another being that directs us to its own desires.

6Z is a dreamy outlook for Mr. Dews with almost all cutters and a strong SE Ridge, almost no snow for SNE. I do not know what to do if the early rumor round up of early talk of La Nina occurring next winter turns out to be on the table on how many people on here will go nuts if faced with a 3rd straight year of little snow.

Must be the Shag Harbour Incident all over or maybe because Shelburne County is Nova Scotia's backwater when it comes to snow, you guys always get screwed even when the rest of us do well.

Bet you didn't take a look at Brett Anderson's forecast for Canada a little latter down the road: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-2020-canada-winter-forecast/600647 The US forecast for us is a forerunner where the Canadian forecast is a correlation to the pattern that is expected to happen. And any person who actually read the Canadian prediction say in Boston and saw the tag line rain and ice for Halifax and St. John should have been red flags for anyone in Boston, Portland, and New York under a chronic SW air flow. But as we can see even this forecast is a bust for the people in southern Ontario.

All westward movements are now misses again , clearly the writing is on the wall on this one. So it it is time to move on and punt the football towards the cutters that the models want to predict.