Dsty2001

Interestingly, we've stayed all snow in northern Greeneville, however my sister which lives 10 miles south is mixing 

Ripping big fatties in greeneville rn

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Do any of you feel insane when it snows? Here I am, at 12:14 staring out the window, while everyone else is asleep. 

Wife just yelled at me cause I keep going outside, took some extra sleepy time medication otherwise I'll be up all night watching radar and going outside lol

Snow rates increasing here, slightly bigger flakes too 

Small flakes falling here in Greeneville 32 degrees 20dp 

3 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Two questions related to roads:

1). When should it start sticking to roads in Knox County? Just all wet at the moment.

2). At what temp does the brine become ineffective?


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I'd imagine once the rates increase and the temperature drops a little more it'll start sticking on the roads as far as the brine goes I think it starts to become ineffective around 20° but I could be wrong

Also looks like Chattanooga is on the cusp of getting snow

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

3k Sim radar is a thing of beauty for central valley guys

Ohhh can you post it 

32 degrees 20 dp in Greeneville, radar looking healthy!

Looking beefy and healthy

Oh that isn't even the full run of the HRRR

HRRR isn't even matching up with current OBS

Wondering if the artic front is making a move, temp has dropped another 2 degrees here 

5 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

The "Rufus" model moves the heaviest snow well up into Kentucky  at least Kuchera ratios.

I just don't see it 

Looks like snow approaching Nashville, line goes all the way back to Little Rock.  Precipitation looks pretty healthy on radar 

Temp has dropped 2 degrees here in last hour.  We doing a OBS thread or keeping it all here?

Also MRX basically said what I've been thinking, with persistent snowfall and continuing chilling of the air, there shouldn't be any mechanics in play that would cause the temperatures to warm

000

FXUS64 KMRX 142035

AFDMRX

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

335 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

 

.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Monday Night)

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Increasing confidence in a heavy snowfall, especially Knoxville

and north, exact placement of highest amounts will depend on where

exactly snow band sets up.

 

2. Potential still exists for a mix of precipitation types along the

Georgia border, lending to moderate uncertainty on snowfall totals

in the southernmost counties.

 

3. Precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning might switch

to a light freezing drizzle as snow comes to an end.

 

Discussion:

 

Mostly sunny skies across eastern Tennessee currently will give way

to the clouds associated with the incoming snowstorm. Expecting snow

showers to begin moving into the valley tonight, sometime between

00z and 06z for first showers. HRRR is a little quicker than the

HREF mean, but siding on the side of caution given how timing has

gone thus far. It seems likely at this point that snow will stick

as temperatures will be falling below freezing as snow arrives.

Therefore last preparations for snow should be completed this

afternoon and early evening. With the guidance continuing the

trend today to move the start time of snow showers up, elected to

begin the warning at 00z tonight, the winter weather advisory in

North Carolina will remain 06z.

 

Snowfall has increased with this package, now expecting a broad

spectrum of 6 to 8 inches along and north of Interstate 40, with

another maximum along the Cumberland Plateau. This forecast is

slightly under the WPC guidance, and it seems likely that some

locations will accumulate higher amounts. Placement of these

localized higher snowfall amounts is uncertain depending on exact

placement of narrow bands of higher snowfall rates. The other

uncertainty in snow amounts continues to be along the border

counties with Georgia, where a brief mix of sleet seems probable

given the persistence in the high resolution guidance. For

temperatures tomorrow, stuck with persistence with the prior

shift. Some guidance, and the NBM, is warmer with the max

temperature, but it`s hard to reconcile that idea when no strong

advection is in place to power that warmth against the chilling

effect of ongoing snowfall.

 

Snow starts out tonight as generally scattered, and guidance has

indicated a lessening or pause before becoming more steady

stratiform snow with embedded bands during the daytime on Monday.

While the HREF doesn`t suggest any 1"/hr rates, steady snowfall will

lead to higher accumulations as Monday wears on. This translates

to road conditions steadily worsening, especially secondaries and

lesser frequented roads, as the day wears on. Monday night into

early Tuesday might feature light freezing drizzle on the backside

of the snow as moisture in the atmosphere lowers beneath the DGZ

and thus only supercooled water will fall. Ice accumulations with

this is expected to be a glaze at most.

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the snow that will tape off Tuesday

morning. Single digit/ near zero temperatures and subzero wind chills

possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

 

2. Additional winter system possible Thursday night into Friday, but

details still uncertain. Ensembles are in not in the best agreement

with the system, but there is high confidence in cold weather behind

this system lasting through the weekend.

 

Discussion:

 

As drier air will begin to move in late Monday night into Tuesday

morning the main areas of precipitation will begin to exit the area

as the upper level energy shifts northeast. At the end of the

precipitation there is a possibility of some light freezing drizzle

or flurries before tapering off Tuesday morning. Any ice

accumulation should be minor with the snowfall being the main

impact. Very cold air then advects into the area Tuesday. High

temperatures Tuesday with the Arctic airmass high pressure will be

in the 20s with wind chill readings in the teens as winds will be

about 10 mph. With the high pressure area directly overhead Tuesday

night and early Wednesday winds decrease and temperatures will

plummet to single digits areawide. Wind chill temperatures Wednesday

night and early Thursday will be between zero and 10 below.

 

Wednesday night and Thursday the Arctic high pressure will shift

eastward and this allows winds to shift to the south and southwest

Wednesday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures warm about 10

degrees Wednesday night and another 10 degrees Thursday with most

locations in the 30s to around 40. However with anticipated snowfall

by Tuesday temperatures may stay below freezing in some areas.

 

The next weather change will be Thursday into Friday as a low

pressure area develops across the southern plains and with

increasing moisture will bring a fast moving front through the

forecast area Friday. The track of the low is expected to go south

of the region at this time. With the short period of southerly flow

and the uncertainty with warming based on entrenched cold air with

the Monday/Tuesday system expect precipitation amounts to not be

that high. If temperatures are in the mid 30s to around 40 at onset

of the precipitation Thursday afternoon like models are showing

there should be mixed precipitation with rain and snow. The mixed

precipitation should continue into the evening. Then the rain should

change to snow and become all snow by Friday. The amount of warming

and the moisture available will affect snowfall amounts. This is

still uncertain. The precipitation is moving out Friday night.

 

Behind the system Friday there is still a higher confidence of more

cold temperatures with Arctic High pressure building in Friday night

through Sunday. Lows again look to be in the single digits Saturday

and Sunday mornings. Highs once again in the 20s Saturday and then

warming into the 30s Sunday as the large surface high shifts east of

the Appalachians by late in the day.

MRX upped their totals, would post the map but it's blurry on my phone

Models tend to under model artic air, also it's been very rare in my experience for a system to start as snow for several hours then go to mix, granted it is East Tennessee and I've seen stranger things happen, I just have a hard time believing there will be any mixing issues for most of the area

11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one.  Should be fairly widespread.  This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year.  

The 18z gfs got tri cities pretty good

I keep noticing Greene and cocke counties keep getting the short end of the stick on these runs.  Possible downsloping issues or what?  Would certainly be strange for there to be more snow points south and west of us to get several inches and then a sharp cutoff but stranger things have happened 

18 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Where are you located? Eerily calm at my house in Knoxville. Stay safe!!


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Near Tusculum in Greeneville, getting pretty sketch lol

Not gonna lie, this wind has me concerned.  Our little trailer is already shaking from the wind, might have to get us out if it continues to get worse