Dsty2001

For anybody interested

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...
An active weather pattern with strong jet dynamics producing
widespread precipitation through Thursday.

For Tonight, a good deal of mid and high level clouds, especially
southern half of the area initially. Deeper moisture begins to
pull back into area toward daybreak Thursday.

For Thursday, the strong jet dynamics with a 300mb jet of
150-160kts over the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states. The
forcing will produce strong forcing with good fronto-genetic lift
around the 600mb level. Models also show good isentropic lift.

Initially, the temperature profile shows more of a mixture of
rain/snow but once dynamic cooling ramps up the precipitation will
change over the snow most locations.

Looking at HREF ensembles, the Smoky Mountains will likely receive
the most snowfall with up to 6 inches with generally 2 to 4. Have
upgrade this area to a warning. The winter weather advisory for
the rest of the east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North
Carolina looks good.

Big question is snow accumulations for the Tennessee valley and
Plateau. Given the boundary layer temperature is marginal for
snow, ground temperatures in the 30s/40s,and snowfall occurring
during the day, snowfall will likely be limited to mainly grassy
and elevated surfaces.

Snow will taper off to light snow showers/furries by late
afternoon and early evening.

 

Forecast discussion for MRX basically boils down to soil temperatures & sun angle

Special Weather Statement lulz

Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day
Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally
heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and
mountains.

Really curious to see if MRX starts issuing advisories or just goes with their whole "Sun Angle" obsession.  While I understand that does play a part, from my experience even in mid March I've seen snow accumulate on roads.

MRX couldn't resist throwing the sun angle in there discussion 

4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF.

Indeed, but those haven't exactly been reliable for the southeast so far this year it seems

At what point do we start taking the NAM seriously, I know it's performed fairly well this winter but we all have been NAM'd before however it has had a decent consistency with this system for a couple days now 

Very heavy snow now in Greeneville

8 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Is this gonna make it in to the JC, Kingsport area?

Judging by the radar I'd say probably not but I wasn't expecting it to make it this far so who knows lol

Snowing in Greeneville now

Here in Mosheim we got hit hard and fast, winds were ferocious for about ten minutes then just heavy rain.  Was without power for about a hour and half 

22 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Confirmed tornado just NE of Tazewell at 6:03pm


.

Did it get warned? Heard reports of rotation

I've seen snow stick to the road after days of 60-70 degree temps, and that was on treated roads. At least in Hamblen & Greene Co they never salted our roads 

What I want to know is why do they keep increasing the totals in the SWS but not bite the bullet and issue a WWA?  1-2 inches is advisory level snow in the valley no?

Is it just my imagination or does it seem to be filling back in on the back side

Snowing hard Mosheim TN

36 now in Morristown, snow & rain reported, will give observation from west end of Morristown here in about 30-40 minutes

I think MRX is a little gun shy after the past two events have been complete busts for them.  

Not sure how accurate the future radar options are but across wbir.com & weather.com as well as my weather app they all show the snow backfilling into the evening, I did read in the MRX discussion something about this as well.  Any possibility the valley will bust high on this?

In Morristown, temperature has dropped rapidly, reports of flakes mixing in, starting to think the models were underdoing the cold air