Prismshine Productions

Subtle difference at 42... Slightly lower heights in the west and over the Carolinas Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

The good ol' Mack Apps Rubber never fails... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Toss the ICON, it went Atl-Columbia-CLT Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

OP is getting worse but not the ensembles Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

How Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Ensembles however... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[emoji102] Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Wonder how many are going to cliff dive... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Just starting to run, or it got stuck Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Got to be, GEFS was further offshore Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

I'm not diving yet, I haven't even gotten my trunks out Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Like every storm... Always happens Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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Just want to point out that hr78 of the 18z NAM (hr84 of 12z) trended a few degrees cooler... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

CAE has joined the party: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- ...Potentially Impactful Winter Weather on tap Saturday through Sunday Night... ======================= SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW ======================= Synoptic flow through this period can be classified as meridional, as the shortwave trough on Thursday digs through the region and ushers in broad northwesterly flow across the eastern CONUS. As this 500 hPa trough deepens off the US east coast, a strong surface high pressure system will begin moving from the prairies of Canada towards southeastern Canada and the northeastern US. This will begin to ridge into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by Friday, and even more so on Saturday. Models are in very good agreement overall with this initial progression of features, with Ensemble and Deterministic models agree on this progression. Meanwhile, model guidance has come into fairly good agreement on the location and strength of another mid/upper level shortwave. This positively tilted trough is forecast to dig into the southern MS Valley by Saturday morning, and will push towards our region Saturday night and into Sunday. Ensemble means and deterministic models are all showing this in some similar form, with a surface low of varying strength developing across the Gulf Coast states and traversing from there and into the southern GA/northern FL. Ahead of this, the strong surface wedging looks to be in place across the region, with cool air already locked into place. From a pattern recognition standpoint, this is a favorable synoptic set up for wintry weather around the region. Precipitation is expected to increase in earnest on Saturday night ahead of this as isentropic lift increases across the area atop the surface wedging. Guidance is mixed in terms of p-type, and it is a bit early to get into these details. However, the pattern would suggest rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain all being possible during this event. Behind this system, high pressure and dry air push back into the region to start the next work week. ======================= MODEL DISCUSSION ======================= We have increasing concern that a wintry mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow may impact the region this weekend. Model guidance is in somewhat remarkable agreement with the overall pattern and even some details of the pattern. The ECMWF begun this trend yesterday, and since, the GFS and Canadian have pushed towards that, along with their ensembles. Ensemble means are impressive, showing trends towards a deeper and more amplified shortwave over the MS Delta region as it pushes a surface low towards us. The ECM is the weakest with the 500 hPa shortwave, keeping it as a fairly progressive, open wave. The GFS and Canadian have quickly trended towards a closed 500 hPa low tracking near the region on Saturday night. The ECM would suggest more of a frozen precip type, but the trend in the 00z GFS/Can & 12z GFS is concerning, pushing strong warm air advection atop a cold layer & resulting in some ice. Model trends and agreement, both in the deterministic and ensembles, are certainly concerning and bear watching over the coming days. Models are fairly uniform in showing the precip generally starting after midnight on Sunday and lasting through Sunday evening. Leaning towards the stronger solutions given the trend towards them within the ensemble guidance. Model guidance did a similar thing (though withing 48h of the event itself) on Jan 2nd-3rd, when they quickly picked up on a deepening and closed low. One other trend to note in the 12z guidance is that the surface high ahead of this is slightly further south and slightly more intense across our region immediately ahead of the surface low. ======================= FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ======================= Forecaster confidence is increasing in some kind of winter weather event impacting the Carolinas on Saturday night and Sunday. So that answers two of the four big questions ("Where?" and "When?"). The "What?" and "How Much?" is still TBD at this point. A couple of things to note: - This could still trend away from a winter weather event. We are several days out from this event, and there is a lot of uncertainty involved in a forecast where precipitation types look to be an issue. - While forecaster confidence is increasing in something happening this weekend, confidence in p=type, amounts, and impacts is not high at this time. Depending on "What?" falls and "How Much?" actually occurs will determine overall impacts of this event. - Guidance is notoriously poor at predicting when and how long a wedge situation will set up across our region. They are usually too quick to scour it out, and usually push us out of a wedge too early. This is important because this set up will be driving any wintry precip that occurs across the area. Given all that I have outlined, I am most confident that areas along and north of I-20 are under the greatest threat for a wintry mix of precipitation this weekend. This doesn`t mean future model trends won`t push in a different direction, but given the weight of the ensemble & deterministic guidance at this point, that is the area of greatest confidence. I want to reiterate - this is a forecast with high variance and several potential outcomes at this point. Stay abreast of latest forecasts over the coming days as details come into clearer view about potential wintry weather across the Midlands and CSRA. -- End Changed Discussion -- Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Thank you! Sent those to my wife since she lives in the Columbia area, even down my way I'm sitting decent atm Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Where on Weatherbell do you go to get those. Type of maps? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

I think EVERYBODY here will take this Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

I am being patient, was just seeing if I got the color codes correct[emoji16] Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

*pulls up and makes my cliff side reservation just in case* Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Every winter and hurricane it loves to plow Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Y I K E S Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

The ensembles are going to be nuts... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

That is going to hurt... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk