binbisso

Also  I wonder if this LA Nina is now starting to die.  Sub surface warmer temps  Are growing esp region 4 and 3.4. Would love to get region 4  Close to neutral soon To help bring the forcing there And the better phase of the MJO So maybe we can avoid The ugly February LA Nina's

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 

 I think we're all a little anxious to get our 1st snowfall which is always very special.  Plus we've had 9 straight days of below normal temperatures well below normal on some of those days so hate to waste the cold air.  I got down to 21 here in Westchester County. Would have loved to time that with some moisture.  Very early yet and a lot of good signs out there and we usually don't get our 1st snow here till after December 15th

Ensembles look fine.  We have to watch next weekend for a wave riding along the front as it presses against the Southeast ridge And gets hung up.  After that there's a signal for a coastal storm The week of December 5th As the G EFS pops a PNA ridge

54 minutes ago, BrianW said:

There still hasn't been a killing frost here..

I tried to get a fire going last night and there was like zero draft it was so warm.

 

 You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the  Past 6 nights  With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27ﾟ.  It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week 

Here's the 5 day average. East based -nao and neg heights east of Hawaii could signal an active southern stream. If it holds that pattern can produce in early December. The best sign is no pig in Alaska 

Big changes on the eps as we head into December. Looks like it tries to pop epo and pna ridge.

Just now, MJO812 said:

-NAO 

-AO

Epo really negative going positive

And the storm will be a big rainstorm. Wtf.

It's November. Climo is against us down here. Patience! We usually don't get our first snow until mid late December 

I guess we can kiss the late November moderation goodbye. Temps below freezing for highs on turkey day. Looks like we may erase the record positive departures. That would be impressive 

Looks like the models have been underestimating the negative EPO.  Models have now been trending colder for next weekend With temps well below normal.  If correct We may have to watch the week of November 14th through 20th for a possible 1st snowfall especially for interior sections.   love the 1040mb highs over Maine with sw in the Mississippi valley 

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You ever notice that these GFS forecasts you post are always 5 degrees too warm?

 

 

Yup. Unless there is a blend of guidance these stats are pretty useless.

Cfs looks good for December. Eps heading in that direction. Not holding my breath but hopefully we can get a decent December this year. We are due

Euro  3 to 4" of rain for the city

Approaching an inch and a 1/2 since yesterday afternoon At all major reporting stations.  Car thermometer at 44ﾟ Wind swept heavy rain right now

Gfs, cmc and rgem  With an additional inch plus through Tuesday. Nam is dry

8 straight days without a positive departure.  The next 10 days are all below normal on current guidance With coldest air mass of the season possibly next weekend.   1st frost/freeze for some of our northern burbs.  Haven't had a stretch like this in quite a long time

Flash for my warning for just about the entire 5 boroughs

We'll be over 2" in The Bronx with this new batch moving up from Staten Island

Flooded advisory for the Bronx and Westchester.  Flash flood warnings for parts of northeast New Jersey.  Storms just keep rebuilding over the same areas More forming to the South. 

1.43" at lga. 0" at jfk

Deluge in the bronx. Close to 1"

Hmm I wonder why snowman19 didn't post the cansip?

Latest hrrr 6+" for the dry spots on LI

12z nam is a drought buster.

The cfs looks even better. I know the skill is low for these long range models but one can hope 

The new cansips improved significantly for this coming winter with a poleward aleutian ridge and a very cold Canada 

Looks like a wet Sunday and Monday Not looking forward to that on the holiday weekend but we really need the rain