NorthHillsWx

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

Jan 2000 will never be topped in central NC. From the blown forecast of almost no snow when we went to bed to waking up to nearly 2 ft, plus just the ridiculous rates that continued into daylight. There were several storms that year too. That’s what made me a weenie, that and hurricane Fran 4 years earlier. The top two weather events of my life in a 4 year span. The Christmas snow is on up there, as is the near foot of snow we got in 2002. The 2002 snow was memorable as I was at a hurricane’s game when it started and I remember Greg Fischel coming on the Jumbotron doing a weather update saying snow had arrived earlier and forecast amounts had increased. We left after the game and walked out to a winter wonderland, whereas it was bare outside when we went in.

57 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I believe being blanked two winters in a row would be a first for Raleigh.

I think someone pulled two other instances of it earlier but we’re getting very close to our record. Also, I bet those other blankings featured some sort of ice or storms nearby. It’s the complete lack of ANYTHING remotely close that blows me away. Not even Greensboro or Roxboro has had snow in this period. From that perspective, this feels unprecedented. I mean 2 years in a row and not a single system inside 5 days to track, it feels about as close to snowing here as it’s been in Tampa Florida during this time 

@GaWxis out for the season. That’s the equivalent of the fat lady singing loud enough for all to hear 

1 hour ago, marsman said:

Too bad you missed Feb 2003 in DC. Was some severe Milk, Bread, and TP going on. I remember having to shovel out my clothes dryer exhaust from a 4' drift next to the house. It was the first time I teleworked. Also remember a sleet storm in either 06 or 07. It was like walking through beach sand.

I know, I missed the 2003 storm and “snowmaggedon” both by a year! That sleet storm was one of the wildest winter storms I’ve ever seen though. I think it was 6-7” of pure sleet and turned into a glacier that stuck around through March 

There was another storm, can’t remember the year, but we were supposed to get rain, then they issued an advisory for 1-3” but it was still supposed to switch to rain early, then the day of it just kept snowing aggregates and they upped us to a warning after we had probably 6” otg. Idk what the final tally was but it was super exciting and unexpected 

56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s funny, when I was in DC in 2008, the phrase was DC now has the climate of Raleigh. Then 2009/10 happened.

I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm. 

Weeds have sprung. 

21 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. 
Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago?

The models are obviously horrible any more.  
just look at the storm the they just went north.  I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. 

Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date.

 What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. 

Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again 

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Well our Nino just acted like a Nina, so not sure we can plan for anything in that regard.

The fact we had the numbers we had last year in spite of an Nino was impressive. I wouldn’t say it acted like a Nina, shear was in places you’d expect towards the end of the season in a Nino and storm tracks were very Nino like 

It cannot be understated how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of the Atlantic and La Niña forecast to come back. 

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV

In the last 6 years I think one cold period was accurately modeled at range, last years Christmas cold outbreak.

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th:

To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment:

 

The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed.

When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV

Maybe one day my kids will see it snow in Raleigh. It’s about like asking it to snow in Jacksonville Florida now 

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Definitely more organization in the central and western gulf on the Canadian and GFS 12z runs. Looks like the northern energy was weaker and allowed for more development of the southern energy, might just be noise at this point but something to watch over the next few days. 

 

It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need!

48 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If it makes you feel any better the NE is having a rough winter also. A lot of them just went from a winter storm 8-12 inches to literally nothing in 24 hours....

Some of the wildest last minute jumps you’ll ever see from models. I almost feel bad for them… almost…

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Look how warm the Arctic has been. What’s also interesting is that the Arctic’s coldest day in the means isn’t for another 13 days, Feb 25. Feb actually is slightly colder than Jan:

That is absurd. 

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

Also- to see how poorly this thing was modeled, look at rainfall forecasts for here today. What looked locked in as an all-day washout has resulted in virtually no rain at all thus far. This thing went WAY south 

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

It’s been full blown meltdown mode on the NE page. I can’t even imagine losing a foot + inside 24 hours and come away with nothing. This page wouldn’t react well 

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Another layer to this climate change conversation:

 

We as a region are very dependent on proper cold from source regions. Snowpack to our north has been absolutely anemic this year and in years past. Arctic air doesn’t have that same punch that it used to because of it imo. As climate change warms the northern latitudes, it’s just going to get increasingly more challenging for cold air to not moderate as it moves south. 

Yes and no. Northern areas should still be cold enough for snow and long lasting snow. Last year the upper NW and dakotas set records. This year it’s been anemic there bc it’s been so dry. The lack of New England snow to me is more pattern related than it simply being too warm. Check the cold outbreak west of the mountains this year. That was able to maintain itself in the Deep South despite little to no snow cover in the upper MW. Now there are times where we 100% benefit from existing snowpack to our north, say down to Pennsylvania, especially for borderline in-situ damming events. But I don’t think the recent lack of source region (NE away from coastline and Canada) snowpack is totally influenced by climate change 

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is trying but the wave is too weak and progressive 

Imo the euro develops the wrong wave. I like the trailing energy I spoke about above. Pretty big differences in timing and wave progression but good to see some coldish air involved again

If anyone’s in need for some entertainment today, head to the New England forum. They have had warnings posted for up to 12-18” since yesterday and the latest EURO completely blanks a lot of those areas. Total meltdown mode up there 

Just now, wncsnow said:

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

Yep. Only chance is for something with perfect timing. I like the Canadians evolution with the lobe of energy left behind and a separate cleaner wave trailing a little behind what the GFS shows. That’s the only way we win bc the “cold” will be transient and a delayed system will have more chance to interact with that very brief window. Two things to watch for the 19-20th time period:

1) can the southern stream energy consolidate quicker and possibly become more amped/further north

2) can the souther stream energy hold back after the initial wave moves through on roughly the 18th. We need that NS low to pass on by for a transient HP to build into NE or it rains. Good news from both runs of GFS and Canadian shows a stronger hp with colder/drier air in our source region. I actually don’t hate the placement of the high on either. 
 

If we notice a sharper trough trailing back in Texas in subsequent runs, I think the odds of something interesting to track will increase, assuming the timing noted above stays the same. This is a very very low chance of success but there are players we need on the field (cold (just enough), southern stream energy) so we cannot completely discredit it at this time

I am trying to stay positive people, the last few days have really been frustrating but I do enjoy tracking weather and to many on this forums credit, there is at least something to track in the timeframe we have been watching 

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

Canadian is very very close on the 20th