NorthHillsWx

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny 

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 

I don’t ever want another El Niño winter ever. Having to wait until March 28th for my backloaded season is testing my patience! Bring on La Niña, I’m sure we’ll win early and win often then! 

I’m taking the kids out to the farm today, perfect day to get out before the rain 

9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is.

You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging 

This thread offers more accurate forecasts than the actual forecasting thread 

Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 

You gotta love seeing classic Miller A gulf lows riding the coast in February with plenty of moisture and rain… in the mountains 

Not only is this our second snowless winter, it’s also looking like the second winter where the roads were never once brined. Keep in mind they’ll brine the roads here if 1 hour of freezing rain is expected, if that puts this into perspective how bad it’s been 

EURO just dropped, it’s all rain. Not AS hideous as GFS but absolutely no cold air anywhere close to work with despite a nearly perfect track. Even the mountains are mostly rain

The NAO forecast has completely lost the blocking we were counting on. 50/50 low for cold air source? Gone. I mean the rug has been pulled for those who were still holding out hope. Maybe the PD storm times it well enough for a little CAD mix in favored areas but the pattern change isn’t so much a change as a 3-4 day transient shot before we return to pac dominated continental air. All ensembles are warming and those weeklies that were so locked into this time period are showing their true value: nothing. It’s spring time, get out and enjoy the 75 degrees today. If it wasn’t overcast we’d be smashing records area wide today, that’s the only part of this forecast that’s held true through the period

My snowfall prediction for the 2024-5 winter has been released: 0.00” 

GEFS is below normal for the 18-20th period, near normal 20-22, then WAY above normal the rest of the month. Sound familiar to Jan? 

Verbatim if that track doesn’t produce snow in central NC it will never snow from a coastal here again

Dare I say that happy hour might be interesting?

Give me an overrunning event with a sustained cold source over ANY other setup at range

I can’t wait to do a post mortem on why this winter failed. I think at this point, unless a freak 6” + event occurs, this whole winter will go down as a major failure given the expectations, analogs, and forecasts. Almost no cold stretches and zero threats to track during a strong nino is tough to stomach. A 1” snow or a ice event will not remove the stench from this season

30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Going back to the question of can their be an ice storm late in the season, here are a few more examples since 1970 in NC

Thanks! That March 6-7 2014 event was the one I was referring to. Areas south of Greensboro looked like a bomb went off in places, very bad tree damage. If I recall that event occurred overnight which mitigated the sun angle issues for ice accrual 

On 2/7/2024 at 6:02 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

The 18z gfs might be final nail in coffin 

18z, 0z, 6z… the coffin is nailed shut. Better luck next year, folks 

The bottom of the cliff is accepting free memberships. This is a limited time offer and will extended through every winter until 2075, or until you move to a location where it can still snow 

17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

6z GFS loses +PNA and is working on wc trough at end. 

Literally says “what pattern change?”

https://www.facebook.com/share/a8RRaMixT1S6MipA/?mibextid=WC7FNe

Euro op looks suppressed with the storm, but the setup would be favorable for a CAD event if precip trended further north. 

March 6-7 2014 was really bad near and south of Greensboro. I was on storm duty for the power company doing damage assessment and that area around 85 was torn up

32 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS

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Folks in Raleigh would literally bury themselves under the cliff with a 4’ thick lead barrier above so they could never come back up and hope again