NorthHillsWx

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Add to that- with the NS low moving out sooner, it actually shows a 1031 HP in a favorable location with CAD signature showing. This isn’t a terrible look at range 

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Probably won’t matter much but GFS is much more consolidated with the southern stream energy over Texas this run

12 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Maybe that's the key though, to be looking for unicorns. Every time there's talk over the past couple of years (may go back further but I've noticed this since I've moved from Boone to Monroe) about a true "pattern change" in the winter it NEVER happens. At the MOST, we've had a couple days where it is cooler, or even maybe a couple of days of cold, but a true pattern change has not happened, as much as it's advertised. Unless a true Nino happens that actually acts like one, I don't think we can actually score anymore in a "good" setup, we HAVE to count on luck.

While I agree, that period around last Christmas qualifies as a true pattern change. We just got unlucky there, but a week mostly below freezing is impressive for anywhere in the Carolina’s. This season didn’t feature anything I would consider to be a pattern change. The “cold blast” in January was essentially a frontal passage that flipped right back to AN, there was transient cold nothing locked in.

You bring up a good point though: what is a pattern change? What are the minimum qualifications to say the pattern has changed or would you consider this January just a cold snap within the same pattern we were stuck in? I lean the latter.

For me, a pattern change needs these qualifications:

1) altered H5 orientation across country 

2) retention or addition of SER

3) either strengthening or weakening of STJ and/or NS

You can throw in blocking, the state of the PAC, MJO, or many other indices but imo those 3 variables dictate sensible weather here and must all be altered to constitute a pattern “change” vs a blip within a set pattern. I don’t know if you can throw a time qualifier in there as well, such as H5 state must last at least 72 hours or something along those lines, but I could hear that argument as well

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 

47 minutes ago, JoshM said:

I don't think we'd even score in a nuclear winter.

Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month 

Per 0z GFS, we reach freezing exactly 1 night through the entire run during this backloaded Nino February. Then we are firmly into spring 

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. 

 

It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts..

We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested 

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things:

1) SER becomes semi-permanent 

2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate 

Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels 

I think the biggest issue is a simple one, we haven’t been able to lock in a favorable HP at all. The NS keeps obliterating every strong high that tries to establish itself regardless of blocking. Believe it or not, we don’t need pure arctic air to snow or get wintry wx east of the mountains. CAD has become a thing of the past, and those storms are our most frequent. Yes we are all searching for the miller A unicorn without thermal issues, but the vast majority of our wintry weather historically has come from miller B mixed bags and overrunning events. Pure Arctic air looks good on paper and long range models but it usually leads to suppression or transient cold shots without a New England high established 

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Please note that for many on the forum, the first post-6pm sunset occurs this week, and for Atlanta, almost 6:30

Wish there was a “love” button on the reactions. Finally enough light to do something after work. 
 

Currently 61 and actually pretty nice out. About a quarter inch of rain in the bucket from earlier 

Glad everyone got outside yesterday 

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Some local cherry trees blooming. I’m sure the Bradford pears are getting ready. 

It’s another early spring across the triangle. Todays mid 70’s with the rain over next couple days will throw it into overdrive 

We shot up to 77.2 which is our warmest temp to date for the year

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This assessment (bolded) isn’t accurate imo because many GEFS runs (and GEPS for that matter) had until recently been showing a large % of members with wintry precip over the non-mountain SE as I had posted about. There were quite a few GEFS with 2/3-3/4 of members doing so and with ~30-50% even down in GA/SC/FL due to numerous having suppressed southern sliders. I was even counting the # with wintry in N FL with many runs having 3-5 members and 1 having an amazing 10 (33%) with wintry, unheard of that far out. Also, for a number of days, more than 50% of GFS runs had significant wintry somewhere in the non-mountain SE. My posts are all there for the record if anyone doesn’t recall these %s. That’s one of the reasons I post details about model/end runs. I’m thinking ahead to if/when folks want to look back.

That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members 

19 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out)

Great question, I don’t know. Ensembles as you know are variable as always and you clearly have model tendencies but they’ve been pretty consistent in showing limited winter wx opportunities throughout the winter. I’d actually say ops this season have been more excited for some fantasy storms than you’d expect looking at their ensemble charts

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass.

Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles 

Just now, BooneWX said:

Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter. 

For bashing of this winter

25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

20 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I agree completely.  Would also add not to bring it up as a contributing factor here either.  Blame what's happening in the forecast models (Plenty showing on those currently to go around  )

I started a thread for bashing of this winter. Let the discussion begin 

With winter on the ropes and the main threads descending into climate change discussions, finger pointing and long range Icon hope, let’s discuss how this winter failed so miserably. Was it poor model performance, over-hyping ENSO, bad luck, climate change, reliance on analogs or some combination of everything? Let’s dive in and leave the main board for actual forecast discussion and the sanitarium for, well, the folks who need it. What better time to discuss a winter failure than on February 10 while it feels like 80 outside and our “best look in years” collapsed in 18 hours of disastrous model runs!

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I said I would give it 3 weeks but its over. 

You have completed the 5 stages of winter grief over the last 24 hours. Congrats!

22 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later!

Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung 

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11