NorthHillsWx

If the storm at hour 210 on the Para materialized and took that track in peak climo and we didn’t get a snowstorm I would throw in the towel

The lack of snowstorms on the ops can be overcome with plenty of cold air around but up until the end of the run there is no real arctic cold showing up. I don’t get below 28 degrees the entire run. I feel like the last three weeks or so the gfs has been showing arctic air towards the end of the run but it hasn’t materialized. It’s getting to be mid January and we need something to break right for us. If we waste this blocking it’s going to be a gut punch

31 atm. Got down to 28 last night and very frosty

Louisiana is better at getting snowstorms than here

Tic-tok, tic-tok

If you wake up and precip is moving in with air temp of 38 and dew point of 32 it’s not going to work out well

Well can confirm there were some surprises in eastern N.C. Driving through Plymouth this morning on the way to go hunt and there a couple inches on the ground and roads covered.

I swore I wouldn’t get invested in this one. I knew I had no chance. But, got thrown in the advisory. Expected something, even a car topper after that. Nope. Can’t even buy a dusting here in peak winter

Couple bouts of white rain. Other than that, nada. Can’t call an event that was never supposed to produce over an inch a bust, but feels like one

36 and rain some pingers now too. Temps dropped 2 degrees since sunset

Amen

HRRR really keeping hope alive for the Triangle folks. If nothing else, it’s been consistent

Awesome awesome cold air look at the end of the GFS run. Classic cold air transport from the arctic

Feel for you guys. That’s a gut punch

From friend in Blowing Rock early this morning. About 4” in these pics and they’ve picked up a couple more since then. A good spot to be today

So in summary: 1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys 3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today 4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow

So a winter storm warning for rate-driven 1-2” snow... I’d have pulled the plug on it

Love when people back the term “dumping” up with pictures. Congrats! You guys always seem to score looks beautiful

I’m hugging the HRRR for this evening’s dusting up to 39 with on and off rain. Sun broke through a few times

I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain

Pretty scene at wolf ridge right now https://skiwolfridgenc.com/the-mountain/web-cam

With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes

Big, wet flakes now mixed in. Got the Carolina special ongoing: rain/sleet/snow Edit: now mostly snow, 70% flakes, 30% slop. Definitely rate driven as expected

Rain/sleet mix in north hills area. Temp dropped a couple degrees when it started, down to 37 from 39