NorthHillsWx

Outside of the front end thump being heavier than expected to the tune of an inch or two extra snow for a few upstate counties, has the NAM been that bad with this storm? Seems to have nailed it for areas east of 85 so far

Well can officially say my ground was whitened this year. All sleet now, roads actually slushy. Temp down to 27.4

50/50 snow sleet for me. Trending towards sleet started as all snow. 27.9, crazy how fast we’re going to rocket above freezing

The mix line on CC looks like it settled south when rates/cooling took over but may be working back north and west now. Definitely going to walk the line for the 85 folks in the upstate next few hours but if you can keep snow it will certainly pile up fast with those rates and returns incoming. That’s a juiced system

https://www.clemson.edu/webcams/

The Clemson campus cams are impressive! SN+ and already deep snow on the roads. I think the northern upstate folks are going to do pretty good with this thump of snow!

That would be better than what we have tomorrow with ice and rain, at least we’d have the cold. The cold signal has been semi permanent on all modeling starting late this coming week

It’s been over 3 years since I had a snow stick to the pavement at my house… And ver 3 years since we’ve seen more than 2.5” of snow. I think us (the Raleigh crowd) have the right to be frustrated when without at doubt the best winter storm opportunity since December 2018 (which even here turned to a rainy mess) decides to turn to rain and 34 degrees

I’m sorry. We literally just went through this exact same thing. 6 days out, lower 20’s and 15” of snow on models to 34 degrees and rain. The signal for next weekend has been there for a long time and at a minimum it looks like the strongest push of arctic air in some time. I would probably be more worried about suppression than what just happened with this weekends storm

We’ll forget this map in 4 days when we’re staring down another 34 degree rain

A winter storm warning just doesn’t feel right knowing you’re going to wash whatever falls away with rain before dark… especially when it’s just ice

Decent consolation prize after 5 hours of slop to rain tomorrow

I’ll cash in that run from the Euro and extreme cold afterwards and sell the next 5 winters!!!

Did the Euro just give us the greatest board-wide win run in history?

Congrats on becoming a father! My daughter was born in October, my first!

Glad I reserved my spot here after the first super amped north run of the GFS a couple days ago…

Post of the decade

This needs to be said: be very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend

2” of sleet is a big storm. Honestly, RAH is too high with accumulation in wake county. Imby I know but I doubt we see over a half inch

Really scary for anyone buying clown snow accumulation maps outside the mountains…

Raleigh crowd is so sick and tired of a meaningless novelty glaze of ice to 34 degrees and miserable cold rain that they have nothing left to say about it on a weather forum. I’m just here for the rest of y’all and the fact this is still a major storm even if my backyard looks like a prison soup Sunday afternoon

The storm it has modeled at this time off the coast is literally right where we want it right now haha

The best way to forecast winter events anywhere in the Carolina’s is to find the model with the warmest mid levels and roll with that

This one interests me a lot. For one, it’s a southern stream system. We are not relying on the northern stream to dump it far enough south. Also, it has ample cold air to work with. And for now, there appears to be blocking showing up north of it. As good a long range look as you can ask for at this point. Hopefully we start to see some agreement in the coming days

My Snow Call: Anderson, SC to Raleigh: up to 1” of snow/sleet. 1/4” ice or less. Change to plain rain Clemson-Greenville-Charlotte-Greensboro: 1-4” of snow/sleet. 1/4-1/2” ice (maybe a small finger of higher totals). Eastern areas may change to rain but may also switch to light backside snow Clayton, Ga-statesvill/hickory-Winston Salem: this is the biggest battleground with snow and sleet. Also biggest range of possible accumulation. I’m going 4-8” with the potential for less due to sleet compaction. Sensibly I think the lower end of that range is more likely but if that front end is truly a thump I think 8” is possible Foothills including Asheville: 6-10” with some sleet mixing Mountains: 10-16” highest on peaks. There could be some mixing issues even here but I think cold air and heavy rates with high ratios at the beginning and end will allow this to be a major snow storm regardless My forecast confidence: High- we’ve seen these storms a billion times Where it could go wrong: foothills to I-85 is my biggest question mark. I really think with the screaming 850 jet out of the east the mixing will occur faster than modeled, so it’s a matter of how much snow comes before the mix. In the Raleigh to Anderson areas, how long does the sub freezing air hang on, and can we approach warning level ice? In the ice storm areas, where does the narrow ribbon of extreme ice (over 1/2”) setup exactly? Not a “fun storm” but been fun tracking. Good luck to those in the snow areas and hopefully power stays on for everyone