NorthHillsWx

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January.

An identical 72.8 as yesterday. At least it’s fun to get the kids outside playing with their presents. Picked up 0.12” in the morning

There are torches and then there’s what occurred today. Topped out at 72.8 but seeing the national maps makes you pause

Merry torchmas everyone! 70.3 how high do we go???

Ahh. The sweet smell of hopium has returned to the forum. Nature is healing

Thats one of the more impressive ZR maps I’ve seen

Anyone have access to IP/ZR accumulation maps for the fantasy storm on gfs, just for fun?

Nice looking at fantasy sleet storms past hour 300 than the endless fantasy torches we’ve seen over the last week

Enough snow to shovel my driveway

It was nice last year where everything just kept trending colder until verification

The biggest impact of the - PNA if we actually keep blocking will be lack of STJ energy. We’ll be relying on something coming from the NW to dig and slow bc there won’t be enhancement or energy from the southern stream or a phase. That’s just the world we are in with the pacific this season. It can work for snow but the odds of a big coastal are muted without southern stream energy

At least the torch and SER are muted with the -NAO but these systems flying in from the NW aren’t what anyone’s looking for

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada

RDU now has Columbia’s climate. RDUs climate has shifted to DC. Do that across the country

But… was it measurable if it was a trace?

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year

We moved into my current house December 8, 2018. I think some on this board remember that date. Thought at the time I’d cracked the code for snow in triangle

Ahhh! The infamous bowling ball with transient HP setup. Big dog potential or 40 degree rain with exact same LP track. That’s a go big or go home type setup. With nothing else foreseeable and one of the worst overall patterns in years establishing, I’m here for it…

As shocked as I was when the sun came up this morning

One thing I’ll say about the upcoming torch is that all will be forgotten and forgiven when there’s a band of 6-10” from ATL to Va beach and everywhere in between in mid January followed by single digits and then snow showers the next day

Forgot to mention we picked up 1.18” of rain Thursday night/Friday morning. Brings the month to 2.67” here

The fact we avoided this last winter is impressive

I think models have accepted the PNA now. Looks to get down to -2 now. Full blown disaster if you want winter weather