NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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I did start the one last year that turned into the RDU-NE NC storm so I was riding a hot streak. Kinda like Riley reeling off wins vs app state and wake I thought I’d figured it out
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Bags were already packed, just like Garrett Riley at Clemson
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If the last 24 hours has taught us anything it’s just reaffirmed that the GFS is simply trash
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While normally I’d agree I don’t think we even had a football on the field for this one as EURO never came onboard
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The only good news about the euro was it was an outlier from EPS and I would say the majority had more snow
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Losing the storm is different than not having cold air to work with
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Canadian all rain
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I guess 44 degrees and rain is better than 33 and rain though?
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Today’s drought monitor update now places 56% of the state in SEVERE drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC
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AI GFS looks beautiful but it’s fools gold, BL temps remain absolutely torched. Since yesterday I think the goalposts have changed. I believe someone is chasing a 1-3” stripe vs yesterday when 5-6” seemed possible somewhere outside the mountains. Hate being negative but that seems the most reasonable call at this juncture.
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I swear and i actually am getting to the point of believing this but until we have anything with southern stream interaction i just don’t think the foothills can score with any of this NS crap
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Once again, for like the 7th or 8th model cycle in a row, I still think the triangle is in a good spot. I am absolutely discrediting NAM to the point of tossing it almost entirely. You’ve got wiggle room on gfs being in the middle of the sweet spot and just need NW ticks on euro. That’s not a bad spot inside 3 days.
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I think everyone in the triangle would take that 3-5” stripe but until euro shows it I still think precip will be further east
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GFS was a good run for RDU but foothills blanked. Thermals even under the heavy stuff are borderline. It went much more positively tilted early on and was a late bloomer. Really can’t fight the EURO
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Close your eyes foothills folks
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Maybe a tick west through HR 60
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GFS looks almost identical to 6z so far
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To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip
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NAM had BL temp issues for about everyone even those areas in that snow footprint. It was also earlier which does not help as it doesn’t give enough time for arctic air to bleed over mountains. It’s hour 70+ NAM so I wouldn’t look too deep into it but just another in a long line of growing thermal issues trending for everyone outside the mountains
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NM lol. Looked to be setting up for glory but way too warm. Can’t even get NAM’d
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Everyone, prepare to get NAM’d
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I’m going to repeat this until the grass is white. This is a major issue with this system we didn’t have to deal with in 2022 or last year and rates are going to be critical. Blues on models won’t mean white ground with this system unless you get heavier bands to set up (outside the mountains)
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10000% Living and dying by GFS and end of run NAM when EURO is locked in is not place to be. If we get a true overrunning event Euro does tend to tick NW with precip but it’s so far from the GFS world right now it would be a massive whiff from the EURO camp if we end up anything like last nights GFS run
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Outside the mountains given sketchy boundary layer issues I’m really starting to think rates will be the only way to accumulate and light snow will be white rain. Upper levels look good so dynamic cooling will be necessary for accumulating snow in piedmont areas. If those rates don’t develop it is going to be heartbreak in here
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That’s a pretty crazy discrepancy from the Euro and EPS
