NorthHillsWx

UKIE found reality after taking shrooms at 0z. Much much colder CAD

I mean honestly the CMC didn’t change much if at all from 0z

Brining 64 east of Raleigh

CMC flips part of DC metro over to rain

Yea, it’s a classic winter storm, still better than other guidance re snow/IP. But ZR definitely trending up as well

GFS keeps trending to other guidance

ICON looks slightly better at 500mb. More separation with the baja low initially

Hour 42 is in NAM range. It’s really beyond 60 hours that you just gotta take it with a grain of salt

I disagree, wasn’t one model run. The storm has been lost on everything but GFS in terms of snow and that’s a trend since yesterday morning. 0z just confirmed it

One thing I can say with 95% confidence is that a big snow event is off the table. Too much would have to be wrong on too many models. Snow to mix can certainly come back for many in NC, I can just say hoping for significant south trends is not as enjoyable as hoping for north trends with a phased system…

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

Not to engage in hyperbole but if you were around for the 2002 storm I would prepare for a similar outcome

Honestly similarities to this. ZR IS ALWAYS OVER MODELED. That being said I fully expect a swath of a bad ice event here but it will be NOWHERE as widespread as models show and many areas will see more sleet than modeled, given the HP were working with that is a mega cold air source through the event I’d have to think IP ends up predominant p type in upstate and foothills.

I don’t think the Euro changed much at all at 6z. Maybe the NW shift is over. That’s the first run without a NW shift in over 24 hours

I agree. We are all forgetting Euro doesn’t handle CAD well at range. That being said, we’re walking the line between ZR and IP now for most. Up until yesterday it was between SN and IP

Our ZR should melt slowly next week so there won’t be any wasted runoff for drought relief, lol

It still looks like the most impactful winter storm since 2018. Maybe worst ice storm since 2022. Snow is fun. Ice isn’t. Hope people following on here realize that the cliff dive here isn’t bc the storm is going away. It’s because most on here are staring down the barrel of a crippling ice storm. Mets will absolutely not get dinged for ringing the bell of a major storm coming that in all likelihood will cause much worse impacts than if it had stayed mostly snow

A more accurate representation of SE weenies has never been written

I’d be shocked if we missed out on a major sleet-ice storm. It’s hard to imagine a 1040+ sitting north of us and us even approaching freezing. Gives me some hope CAD will trend stronger as we get closer (per usual) and we can get sleet instead of ZR as predominant p type. Yesterday I was pretty confident in that happening but now I’m wavering. Just hope the ice storm like big ice totals are south and east of here but it’s gonna be close now.

It was writing on the wall as soon as ensembles showed max snow north of here. I don’t care if it shows me with 10” if north of Richmond has double that it means we are mixing and that 10” will become 1”. Just a lifetime of watching storms here. I never bit on this being a snowstorm for us but I did think I-85 and north was in a good spot. Now I’m confident you’ll need to go north or Richmond for the best snows, though I think places in southern Virginia get the thump we thought we’d get yesterday

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls: Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas. SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast. Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb

It has dipped to 12.9 at the farm in Louisburg and the airport is sitting at 14! Think that’s the coldest reading for both this season. Sitting at 21.2 here at home. Might fall a little more at both locations

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore).

Save this for the all time fail files: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013634552833425732?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

GFS against the world, what could go wrong?