NorthHillsWx

What I take away from that map is more of an east coast problem than just somewhere in the Carolina’s and it all stems back from the insane lack of coastal storms that have worked. To me, this is where climate shifts have caught up with snowfall. Our biggest snows have always been and will always be from coastal lows. Recently, every coastal system has either missed, or the BL has been too warm for snows. These are always borderline systems where the heaviest snows fall in 31-33 degree temps so a swing of 1-2 degrees will absolutely destroy what otherwise was a perfect track system. You’ve seen this up and down the coast and unfortunately this might be more common in the future. The snows we have gotten including the two all snow events last year were in deep cold air masses with coastal lows either too weak or too far offshore to produce enough QPF for heavier amounts. I know eastern N.C. got lucky and it can still happen, but it just seems like it takes more than it used to to get coastal lows to produce snowfall in the piedmont and up the east coast. I remember the I-85 snow line when that was a thing and the rain snow line wasn’t somewhere in Virginia. We used to have 1-2 of these a year at least where Raleigh would have some kind of mix to rain and places west of here got plastered. Recently it’s been all rain or just a brief roxboro mix to rain. That’s what I see the most out of that map and it gives me a lot of concern for the future as our main form of bigger snowfall seems to be taken away by background warming

This is great research as always. Gives credence to the theory, at least we aren’t burning good snowfall climo with a crap pattern. Will hurt the ski resorts and delay onset of winter, but if it was December 16 and the indices were trending the way they are we’d be in trouble

At least we’re not burning prime climo but I am very concerned given it being Nina and pacific heading to crap. All this blocking and +PNA we’ve had has still managed to produce a “heatwave” and northern storm track so losing blocking and pacific turning bad does not bode well

Worried about SER this winter. I’ve seen this tune before it gets going and PNA continues to screw us until a one week post frontal cold snap in January especially in a La Niña year. This setup is tough to burn in the SE especially when it’s already rearing its head. Could flip, but color me concerned with PNA trending negative. At least it’s mid November not mid December heading into a screwball pattern but winters where the SER gets going and Pacific trends to hell tend to have repeat performances through the season and being a Nina year It doesn’t feel great seeing this pattern show up

73.4 here today. Tailgating at the canes game now it’s incredible out

It was extremely cold yesterday, it’s hard to stay in the 40s with full sunshine in early November, but wind both nights wind and clouds kept us from dropping much despite the overall environment suggesting much colder temps. We failed to meet forecast lows both nights 30 (28) and 37 (32) at my house. Accumulating snow to the coast and record cold south and west of here justified the hype though. We may never see snow in some areas that received it again this early in the season, and that’s backed up by it being the earliest snow ever for some areas. Wouldn’t say it didn’t live up to hype just bc central NC didn’t get as cold as we were expected to given it overperformed south of here and the snow way over performed in mountains and in areas with those surprise bands

We never really dropped last night. 36.7 was lowest we got all night. It’s crazy out of a system that brought sub freezing temps to Florida, snow to the coast, and single digits to mountains we managed one night below freezing

High of 49 and currently 38. Insanely cold early November day with full sun

We didn’t get as cold as forecast here but did have a hard freeze. Bottomed out at 30.0 and were at/below freezing for 6 hours

I had a Snapchat from one of my friends going deer hunting in Hamilton NC and it looked like an inch. Side roads were covered too. They must’ve gotten under some rates

Flurries flying here, first 32 degree reading of the season. Good band in NE NC likely putting down at least a dusting. Now back to bed

Flurries reported in statesville

Returns starting to blossom north of Greensboro

Accumulating snow south of Charlotte on November 10 is beyond rare

That’s nuts for November 10

Friend in Charlotte says it’s snowing hard but not sticking

RAH talks about the chance of a brief period of snow tomorrow night in latest discussion

Finished with .72”

We have not made it below 39 yet at my house this fall

Half an inch so far. Very solid rain event, my house seems to be in the best spot for once

Looks like the storm might come close to major again. Really getting its act together this morning on both satellite and recon

Melissa has now surpassed Erin in total ACE, becoming the highest ACE producing storm of the season, second storm of the season with >32 and third storm >26. I know people forecasted a backloaded season but to only have 5 hurricanes and get a basin seasonal ACE of likely ~140 is impressive.

As expected the wind damage where the eyewall came ashore is extreme. There are areas where well built structures appear to have been flattened by wind, not surge. With elevation in play I am confident assessment will find ground verification of 200+ mph gusts. Honestly some of the damage looks akin to a very high end tornado. I cannot wait to hear Josh’s take on it as he went through the worst of both this and Dorian

If Jamaica hadn’t been in the way this would’ve easily been top 3 too

1.26” here with a steady drizzle continuing this morning