NorthHillsWx

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting

We did crack 80 but I’m not complaining. 80.2 and absolutely wonderful out

I’m not sure we crack 80 today. Got up to 79.4 but have fallen about a degree since. Been pretty lockstep with RDU but I think they hit 80.1 last hour

Gotta say that seeing the 540 line dig into the lakes states already on models for next week has me excited for fall

The only thing we can complain about if this pattern continues is it could get quite dry this fall again. Storm track well east of us and dry Canadian fronts with no gulf connection. But after getting nearly 20” over last two months I think most in here are fine with a break

High of 78.6 yesterday. Currently 59 Bottomed out at 58.5

Not to beat a dead horse but holy moly it’s quiet in the tropics

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period

This is looking like it continues well into September. We’ll see where we end up

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

This is incredible. I hope everyone is enjoying this stretch of weather this is a historically cool period in the middle of summer. We may never get an extended BN stretch like this again for this long as so very few have ever happened. RDU hit 90 1 time in August and many areas in our sub forum never touched it and it is continuing into September. This realistically is likely the coolest extended summer period in many of our lifetimes. Not only the peak departures from normal but the duration of BN is what is making this period stand out

First 50’s of the season! Well it’s not even close to fall and we have 50’s anyway! 58.6 this morning and honestly could’ve used a light jacket taking the kids to school

64 for the low this morning! Currently 69 and feels incredible out

It got back up to around 89 after I posted this but 89.1 was the max! We did not break 90 and we look locked in to stay below it the entire month, WOW! Currently 86 with relatively low humidity again, dewpoint 62

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86

The no 90s in August streak is in jeopardy! Already to 87.4 which is above the forecast high and surging up. 88.7 is the highest I’ve recorded this month so today very likely surpasses that at this rate

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

85.8 yesterday. Today is probably the only shot to hit 90 here this month and forecasts are for us to top out about 3 degrees shy. When the hot airmass is shy of 90 in August you are in a fantastic pattern. Didn’t realize it had rained a little this weekend but got 0.04” which brings the month to 9.18”

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

High of 80.6 and very low humidity. What sort of sacrifice did y’all make to the weather gods? This is becoming a historic august

I’m just saying- it hasn’t hit 90 yet this August in Raleigh NC and we’re looking at 50s this week. We’re getting into record territory for coldest August in history. If anything, this burns clock during the peak of the season

With the anomalous trough and major fronts already impacting the east coast I would say the odds of an east coast impact from something other than home brew are likely decreasing. We’re in an October pattern in August

HWRF loves it. Brings it to cat 3. Also makes a direct hit on Bermuda

Made to to 86.4 today which was one of the warmest days this month! Also picked up 0.08” from a stray shower that ends the short rainless stretch and brings the monthly total to 9.14”

First time it’s come under our house since Isabel in 2003