NorthHillsWx

WPAC inactivity is absolutely absurd

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been.

The GFS brings it back to life a little more on the 6z but one thing is beginning to become apparent and that is this system likely struggles until the recurve due to a combination of large size, shear, and an area of SAL it will be interacting with. To me this was a given to become a MH given modeling over the past few days. Now I am not so sure. EDIT: GFS brings the system to the 940’s and a MH as it recurves and accelerates

I’m a little surprised they designated this a depression overnight. Can anyone else find a center? First visible images seem to suggest a sharp wave axis but no discernible center. Convection is also not well organized. Hmmmm

We are in serious need of rain if we do not want to slide into a drought. We are sitting, 17 days into September, at 0.16” if rain for the month and going back to August 15 we have only received around 1/2” total. When I say it’s gotten dry that is an understatement! No rain in forecast either. We look likely to finish out September with under 1/2” total rainfall (possibly under 1/4”) which, including the second half of August, would leave us under 1” for the last month and a half. Not good

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

The amount of 45 kt gusts from cape lookout to the mid Atlantic has been impressive with the system. Very large area of strong northerly winds. Can imagine a substantial push of water on some of the sounds and rivers that catch that fetch

Great analysis. I said this on the Southeast board, but folks rushing to name this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in awhile! It’s a textbook nor Easter and if you look at Water Vapor loop you can see it’s part of a larger ULL centered over the western Carolina’s. Also agree, if this was south of hatteras and over warmer water for longer, you could see it “pinch off” and wrap up into a hybrid system but this is fully frontal at the moment and a very powerful nor Easter. Jennettes pier has now gusted to 65 mph and has recorded gusts over 45 kts for the third straight day. Very impressive system but not tropical

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I do not think this is subtropical. It is fully attached to a front and I see no evidence of a warm core, just warm air on eastern side south of a warm front. Also if you watch water vapor loop it is within a broader upper level system centered over WNC. These nor Easter’s can be quite strong and prolonged, as evidenced by winds gusting above 50 on the OBX for the third straight day. The folks jumping on naming this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in a while! These are fun systems to watch

Jennettes pier is gusting to 65, sustained at 42!!! (MPH)

I cannot believe how dry it’s gotten after back to back 9”+ rainfall months at my house. We’re on track to finish with under 1/2” of rain for the entire month and I frankly don’t see another rain chance unless something tropical happens

Well so much for any rain in central NC

Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head is now gusting up to 60! Quite the coastal low EDIT: duck pier gusted to 58

They read this forum and listened to everyone complaining about them naming every cloud lol. Looking at this system it appears fully non-tropical. Corbina and Nags head are now gusting over 50mph at the moment, very impressive for a non tropical low. Would not shock me to see some gusts into the 60’s if the system keeps tightening up. Name or no name, the OBX are experiencing mid tier TS impacts

Hatteras buoy is now reporting sustained 35 kt wind with gusts approaching 50 kts. Likely to be an unpleasant day on the obx

Having an AN season seems unattainable at this point in terms of ACE and even NS. NN might be a stretch. It would take another ACE monster like Erin to even approach normal levels. With only 1 hurricane thus far it seems unlikely we will reach our average hurricane count as well. The current cherry certainly could develop and pad those numbers a bit but even that systems development keeps getting delayed somewhat on modeling. Really at a loss of words for this September. I thought 91L was going to kick off a more active period. I can’t even imagine our opinion of the year if Erin did not become the ACE machine it was.

The eastern half of NC could get some heavy, beneficial rainfall over the next couple days depending on how strong the coastal low gets.

Probably not tropical but the low off the Carolina coast could become quite strong when it moves ashore. Some guidance shows winds approaching 50 kts

Never count out October in the gulf but east coast is fighting climo into October for significant landfalls. Obviously there are exceptions

Dipped down to 53.5 this morning. Took the kids for a walk and it felt amazing. Great day for watching football with a bunch of big games this afternoon

Where in the world are you getting “lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic” from the 2024 season? It was above average on every metric and featured some of the worst hurricane impacts we have ever seen. There were 5 MDR hurricanes and the Gulf was active as well. Sorry, I will not agree with you on this.

.14” overnight here. We did make it to 70 yesterday

We may not hit 70 today. Cloudy, drizzly 66 at the moment

Low of 56 this morning