MarkO

When I left on Monday, I had to trek out to my shed and the pack was over knee deep (poking through two layers) and standing on the third. It's got density. Like I said, 6+inches liquid. My forecast up there calls for it to start as mix of frozen, flip to rain (0.5-0.75") then back to snow. So it will be absorbed. 

I "thought" it said 2-3" of rain around here, but it's only 1-2", so I don't think it will be totally gone, but spotty and banks. 

NNE winter. 

Whole different story up north, especially this winter where I've gotten over 5 feet of frozen compared to about 20" here in Lowell. I'd guess the depth in Lowell is about dense 6" OTG (with probably 1.5" liquid). Depth at cabin is about 2 feet, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had 6"+ liquid. With the 2-3" of rain and temps in 50's it could get wiped out, but the ice to rain to snow up north is only going to add density to the pack.

Current temp at cabin: 25.4/11

Current temp Lowell: 39.5/31

7" sugar at WV.

Regards to seasonal totals, just look at Blue Hills. Talk about a hockey stick.

8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. 

I've been thinking Concord, but didn't dare say it last night. I 've been out on own with my thinking which for the record has been based solely on how this winter has unfolded (and admittedly near zero meteorological knowledge.)

Para GFS looks like it could be northwest of GFS. I'm starting to be concerned for CNE, NNE

I got to give James credit for his positive outlook, particularly after so many let downs. I couldn't live on the Cape James. You'd find me in the canal upstream or downstream of the Sagamore depending on the tide. 

I've been referring to the GFS, but it's lately seeming to get a lot of support. Seems like NAM/Harvey vs the rest. The track is concerning.

Still very tough to bet against Harvey. Even last night he wasn't backing down. 

Just now, Greg said:

At this rate it looks like the warm air may win out verses Artic air. Pretty much an1980's winter.  Favorable tracks but poor thermals.

We'll see how it pans out, but this has been my concern for over a week. This winter has been a NNE winter and I believe there is a trend...

I'll be in Thornton this weekend. Pretty sure even with a track NYC to BOS is safe

GFS please! As in both WTF, but I'll gladly take it!

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro will come in warmer now.

Can't stop laughing. 

The way this is unfolding is incredible.

Now the ECM rolls out and crickets.

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They definitely split their zones by elevation not just county level. As far as directives go though, there is no stated difference in criteria.

It's possible it's like us with MWN, that the majority of the zone doesn't reach criteria. Also possible that lack of verification means they don't issue blizzard warnings.

speaking of blizzards, are you even considering blizzard watches or warnings for downeast Maine? I'm thinking the sustained winds may not produce unless there's quite a bit of mixing down to the surface?

Just now, CT Rain said:

I kept the old polygons and just upped the ranges to 2-4/4-8/8-12

NAM won your heart?

Goal posts are narrowing. This is looking good for most of NE save the coast.

That'd cause some serious power outages without the snow. I agree (with generally everyone) who think the CAD will overperform. 

I think this storm is going to be more problematic than general population thinks.

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The biggest difference is that its more realistic regarding QPF....no brainer.

It is also about 1c warmer in the mid levels across SNE.

Noise

and if it was colder, you'd still say noise?

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nope

Da Nile ain't just a river in Egypt Jerry.  

It's a little warmer. As a matter of fact it's showing rain over the Tolland Massif at hr 72.

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like it 

Conceding already? 

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wasted 

LOL. Like I said, I will be! I'll even do a shot for you.

ECMWF ticked warmer towards the GFS AITIW. Get out there and pile it high before the rain.  Seriously, I think you get wet between your legs for a bit but it will just add your pack. Good luck.

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

What the hell is the WC thinking? Fitchburge and Jaffery are not getting 30" - 35" of snow.  Pretty damed sure of that even with a little elevation. No way.

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