dallen7908

Penultimate update as our window is nigh;

about half of the total for the last run are for this weekend's possible storm, which I had kind of forgot about until yesterday morning when I checked my "trusty" weather app and saw that my snow chances (percent) for next weekend were higher than either today/tomorrow or Thursday. 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 16 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3

The TPV (as represented by GFSv16) continues to accelerate south/southeast and begins (continues?) to influence our favorite anomaly.  Based on the movement of the TPV one would think we are looking at different times but no all of the plots below are from 7 AM on the 28th

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 14 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Per shams 

 

More fun with letter grades

ECM A

UKM B

GFSv16 C+

CMC C+

JMA C+

GFS C (barely) 

FNO D-

GFVv16 (parallel)

Looking better with time. 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 13 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2

What's nice about the Para is that it has an expansive region of snow compared to its preceding 2 runs.  Pushes solid snow amounts east to the coast and north

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 12 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1

Poor timing with all of the GFS excitement but here are the EPS numbers for the last 11 runs

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 11 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1

18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The futility thread captures some of this. In balt city we haven’t seen a verified winter storm warning snowfall since January 2016...

I feel your pain.  To the best of my recollection, I haven't experienced a 2" storm in my backyard since January 2016.  I was on vacation during the March (spring training) and January (Tucson trip following AMS meeting) events we had during the last several years. 

Retreat! 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 10 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0

(With next week's east coast storm ~ a week away, this will be the last post of this type in the long-range forum) 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 9 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 8 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 7 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3

North, south, east or west most of us are in the game!  

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 6 runs (College Park) through Feb 2

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 5 runs (College Park) through Feb 2 

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So do we use the other thread starting at 12z?  Only 7 days to go!

When we shift (12z today or tomorrow makes sense), I'd suggest moving over all discussion of the very active January 25 - January 29 time period. 

Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. 

EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park)

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11

NAEFS time series for the next few weeks

EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 3 runs (College Park)

90th percentile:  9 15 12

80th percentile:  6 10 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9

60th percentile:  4 5 8

50th percentile: 3 4 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4

20th percentile:  0.7 0.6 3

10th percentile:  0.5 0.3 1

35 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This has been very noticeable.  As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run.   I haven't even been wearing a hat!  Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times.  What's the coldest temp at DCA this season?  Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that?

I've bottomed out at 23 degrees - at least that's the lowest I've seen.  don't have a max/min.

The 00 EPS does show below normal high temperatures for a 9 day period beginning next Saturday. 

The 00UT EPS still have numerous good hits in the 8-11 day range.  The downside is that most of the ensemble members delay the start of any event until next Tuesday - about 24 hours later than the ensembles showed 2 days ago. 

For College Park, 1/3 of the members are snowless while 1/5 predict a MECS or BECS resulting in an impressive snow mean of  6-7" and a median of 4"  Hopefully, we won't end up getting the mode. 

12 UT GFS: Primary reaches Manitowoc at hour 192.  Wintry precipitation yet to reach MBY.  Cold air moving make that running away. Hour 198, rain.  Hopefully, we pick up an inch or two between 193 and 194  I toss.  It's still ensemble range.