dallen7908

EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow

For illustration purposes only.  Look at the split flow.  Unfortunately, no interaction between the streams so we are left with surface lows associated with the southern and northern streams.  ... and the cold air bottled up well to our north

21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Just keep Jar-Jar Binks out of it, or any of the prequels/sequels to the original Star Wars trilogy and we should be fine!!

Seriously, though.  Others have elaborated some on this but I kind of have to like the overall look of things near the end of this month and into the first part of February.  Is it another rug pull?  Who knows.  But there's been some really good cold air advertised nearby and the PV perhaps dipping south more in that time frame.  We'll see, I guess.

This is how most of these threads start - with the best look of the season in the day 10-15 period!  Fortunately, climatology is a weaker enemy than usual in early February.  ... and it's great to finally see some cold temperatures in the northeast.  

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

That's encouraging (I think).  Hopefully, it doesn't get waylaid during its torturous journey through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 before reaching the promised land post-Valentine's day

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec.  Here are the latest for Sugarloaf

Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️  ~01/20/23 07:11 am

In at least one metric, the 00 UT EPS run wasn't that much worse than yesterday's encouraging 12 UT run.  

Metric: Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 4" of snow (10:1 rule) during the following 15 days. 

00 UT Jan 15th run: 9.8%

12 UT Jan 15th run: 17.6%

00 UT Jan 16th run: 21.6%

12 UT Jan 16th run 17.6%

00UT Jan 17th run 21.6%

12 UT Jan 17th run 35.3%

00 UT Jan 18th run 33.3%

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1913-14 and 1959-60 were Nov/Dec/Jan shutouts at DCA that still ended up above average for the winter. I don’t know the story behind either of those though.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=1rEfAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PdcEAAAAIBAJ&pg=1680,5002132&dq=march+snowstorm+1960&hl=en

https://www.gloucestercitynews.net/clearysnotebook/2010/08/i_remember_when.html

We used to have a first 1" snow fall at BWI contest within the Department of Meteorology at UMCP.   In 1997-1998 we finally gave up tracking in late February only to find out later that BWI cashed in sometime in March.  No such luck at College Park.   I think that was the last year of the contest - not sure if it was because of lack of snow or interest.  Clearly this group would never has missed that March storm.  I'm pretty sure we won't need to wait that long this year - but ... who knows.  I did see my first flurries (more than one but never more than one at the same time) over the winter this past Saturday

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW this is the kind of thing, at this range, that if it’s real the op will pick up on it first. 

Weenie rule No. ? Why do you believe resolution is crucial here? 

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though


.

Hope so, especially since the ensembles are run off of an older version of the GFS. 

Another contributing factor to our decrease in snowfall is the success of measures put into place to reduce sulfate emissions by power plants.   Fifteen years ago, a sizable amount of the warming associated with greenhouse gases was offset by cooling by aerosols - no longer the case.

As a side the decrease in aerosols may also play a role in the disappearance of the weekend effect.  While I was never fully on-board with the idea, the rule held that large east-coast snow storms were much more likely on weekends than weekdays.  If true, a possible explanation is day-of-the-week variations in aerosol emissions.  Aerosols act as cloud-condensation nuclei with the number of aerosols affecting the rate and consequently the altitude at which cloud droplets turn into rain drops or graupel.  Today, day-of-the week variations still occur but their amplitude is much weaker. 

Finally, while warming will continue for the foreseeable future, a sizable portion of our poor snow prospects the last several years may be due to decadal oscillations in the Pacific.  Years with 20-30" of snow in the DC area may not be extinct. 

Each of the last 7 winters I've tracked the weather in DC and also in a New England location that I visit later in the winter.  This year I'm going to the Winter Carnival in Quebec City.  Last year I was in the southern Adirondacks the day of the MLK storm.   Hopefully going all of the way to the Laurentian mountains will prove to be unnecessary but we'll see. 

Like many here I'm still hoping for snow next weekend and later this winter.   May those proclaiming the death of the weekend effect, Alberta clippers, as well as packed isotherms on the north side of storms be dead wrong. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Would it make things better if I threw a fit and jumped off the roof? 

No but please send one if you are jumping into a 3 foot drift - make that snow drift

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS today v. yesterday.  This is not the first time it has done this….

24-hours later at 12 UT next Saturday, the difference in low locations between the two simulations is less stark as most of the lows have jumped to the coast (re-developed).  Unfortunately, yesterday's cluster at 12 UT on Saturday was off of the Carolina coast while today's cluster is off of the Virginia coast.  We could know more soon as ensembles skill improves dramatically between day 8 and day 5. 

54 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change"

Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

On what date should we expect to have received 50% of our annual snowfall.  I've always gone with January 22 but am curious when the actual date is ... based on the date above like it seems likely it is even later than the 22nd. 

Typically, when we are waiting for a pattern transition in the 10-14 day range, discussion of possible stratospheric help in the 2-4 week time frame is filling these pages (for better or worse, usually the latter).  Is there a reason we're not hearing about the possibility of stratospheric help yet this winter? Too early in the season? Not in the cards? Link too weak? 

The problem with the mean is that the distribution is becoming increasingly skewed because the mean is low and bounded by zero.  N=136 is a healthy sample size. 

"The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ."

From last Friday's CPC forecast.  While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too? 
 

"Details we just can't know yet."

Details --> Whether or not there will be an east-coast storm

Details --> Whether it will snow in Washington, DC

Too bad CAPE isn't referring to the latter. 

... did you also observe a complete flip in the ensemble means of surface temperature for days 10-15?  That would be a more interesting ... and probably still wouldn't be too surprising. 

If you think we do wind well here you haven't been around much

Yes whenever it's windy here from mid-November through early April, the answer to the question: "Snow storm in (interior) Maine?" is usually yes

I usually root for a warm October - it seems to be  correlated with a cold/chances-for-snow winter.  Of course, I'm sure the correlation if it exists is 0.1 or so. 

It'd be kind of cool to watch opening day in a flizzard - but other than that I'm ready to move on too. 

1/3 7.5

1/7 2.25

1/16 2.25

1/28 0.5

2/13 0.1" (briefly reached 0.1" when T dropped to 34 during a snow shower just before 9) 

3/12 0.4"

13" for the winter (College Park)

College Park

no accumulation yet on the sidewalk driveway etc  but certainly accumulating on the mulch and even on the grass.

Transitioned from vertically-falling snow to fatties about 10 minutes ago - perhaps a good sign

Temperature has creeped up a bit over the last half hour but it could be due to some stray light sneaking into the dog house (our dog has never entered it) where the sensor is ... 

38 and sleet in College Park