dallen7908

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

Yes, I remember it being in the 60s earlier in the day, getting about an inch of rain and then coming out of an early Saturday evening mass with perhaps an inch of snow on the grass

I find it kind of pathetic that I'd be ecstatic if 4% of Sunday's predicted precipitation in my back yard (2.5" or so) falls as snow. 

Arguably, the best EURO run yet for north and west of cities.  

Good luck all!  I was supposed to put together a wish list for XMAS but got distracted but wasted by time perusing these articles from the winter of 2023-2024. 

Capital Weather Gang: “Thirteen things need to come into alignment to give a big snowstorm to the coastal plain – in a bad year they are uncorrelated – In 2023-2024 R was close to 1!

January 25, 2024 was a January 25, 2000 redux but 50 miles further west .

How to measure snow in a blizzard (hint don't slant stick or you'll lose the stick) 

How to make an igloo - the most googled phrase in Maryland last week

Potassium or magnesium chloride: a quick guide

With the five inches Baltimore received yesterday, it joined the 100-inch club

The top ten snowstorms of 2023-2024

Rain-snow line? In 2023-2024 for DC, it was as simple as multiplying by 10. 

… and that is why there are 5 categories of a blizzard. 

Let's hope for several forum uniting storms! 

Another great way to experience tomorrow's wind/rain event is to sign up for tomorrow morning's Lake Anna Triathlon, which is still on as of noon today

"Good Morning Giant Acorn Athletes! Yes, we are watching the weather and yes the race is still on. Currently at Lake Anna they are calling for winds out of the north and rain. The Olympic swim will be 2 loops to keep athletes closer to shore. If we need to modify the event further we will. Keeping athletes safe while racing is what we do. Bring layers and a positive mindset! #gokinetic" 

Here is Alfredo's Climate Bulletin for spring 2023. 

1) Spring 2023 was warmer and much drier than normal (i.e., 1991-2020 averages).

6) Regionally, mean temperature in spring showed a significant warming trend everywhere in the state, with maximum values over the Eastern Shore (above 2.0°F/century) and Baltimore City (2.8°F/century).

Here is the April 2023 Maryland Climate Bulletin prepared by state climatologist Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas

https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~climate/Bulletin/bulletin_mdsco_current.pdf

Wish I were in the Palisades or perhaps preparing for tomorrow's Classique Alex Harvey at Mont-Saint-Anne.  Weather looks great after today's snow showers tomorrow's high is expected to be 32F.  

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

When I started at NASA-Goddard in the late 1980s there was still an ice skating club and a sign telling you whether the pond was safe for skating.  I believe the last time any skating occurred there was December 1989.  It was years before it was cold enough to skate there again and by then the club and sign were just memories.   I'm probably misremembering but I believe the last good skating weather was February 2015. 

Yet another excuse if 2023-2024 fails to deliver. 

"When Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai (HTHH) erupted in January 2022, it shot the standard volcanic cocktail of ash, gas, and pulverized rock into the sky. But the eruption included one extra ingredient that’s now causing climate concerns: a significant splash of ocean water. The underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere like a geyser, potentially contributing to atmospheric warming over the next 5 years, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said." 

They must have really tweaked the IC on this EPS ensemble member.  

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d be very good with 3 months of deep winter, 1 month of summer, and 8 months of 65-80F. 

Did you check out the Washington Post today.  Apparently, Alaska is the #4 retirement "destination" in the U.S. behind Arizona, California, and Florida. You'll have company. 

Surprisingly, to people on this list,  desire for snow is not believed to be the main reason. 

11 minutes ago, stormy said:

Preponderance of evidence at 180 hrs. suggests a high probability of a Miller A storm on the east coast early to mid next week. Credible details are impossible at this range. Confidence should be much better by Saturday.

Regarding the GFS snow maps. If the storm brunt reaches north and west to our latitude, heavy snow would be possible from the Blue Ridge westward through the 81 Corridor into the Potomac Highlands. Significant accumulations (more than 3 inches) would be unlikely for the 95 low lands.

Good to hear.  One more in the unlikely camp versus the snowball chance in hell camp. 

It's interesting that only one of the 31 06 UT GEFS members shows measurable snow around the 23rd in College Park.   The 10-day mean snowfall for my backyard is about a 1/4 inch.  Early-April numbers.

While this could be chance, It really illustrates the fact  that the parent model of the ensembles is not the operational model.  It is an older version of the operational model.   Hopefully the improvements matter here or perhaps the resolution. 

EPS 10-day snow mean in my back yard for the last 5 runs: 5.5", 3.6", 3.2", 2.3", and today 12 UT 1.2".   Tonight the rebound begins. 

With respect to next week's chances, I feel like a 4th string point guard on a 7th grade basketball team warming up for the last game of the season.   Will I finally score a basket? 

Spoiler alert, I never did score that basket - but I did make one of two free throws in the one minute I played in that last game.  I went out for wrestling in 8th grade.   Perhaps I'll track cold-rain-storms next year.  Oh wait ... 

... am encouraged to see the southern extent of the wintry precipitation next week and the general pattern 

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter?

We don't know yet, it was the 00 UT EPS run from the 5th of March. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models

1": 68%

3": 43%

6": 19%

but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%.  

Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities.  

That's great.  Only one of the 51 EPS members of the 12 UT suite gives the DC area no snow over the next 15 days.   Mean is the 2nd highest its been all winter. 

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

Perhaps they forgot to color in central MD?  Certainly chase-able.  The 6 UT ensembles are similar. 

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? 

There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run.

Well I was hoping to be up watching the snow fall

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff

Rule of thumb based on Baltimore statistics over the last 130 years.  Chances of a substantial event drop off by a factor of two between March 1 - 10th and March 11th - 20th and another factor of two between March 10-20 and March 21 -April 1.  Chances essentially zero after that. 

Certainly the EPS mean snowfall totals for the next few weeks are as good as we've seen this "winter". 

CAPE's post about how good day 12-14 looks made me nostalgic for earlier this year when the events were only 10 days away. 

23 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Are the scores based on D-J-F or the extended winter season? In other words, can 2022-23 move up if there's any significant snow to come? 

Yes any snow in March or even April would add to the DC total.  With respect to 2009-2010, the measured amount at DCA was quite a bit lower than at nearby locations.   

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I wfh and so does my wife. We could have moved to tahoe or buffalo. But we chose here because our daughter gets to see my mom once a week and we both have friends in the area. Too important to pass up just to live in an area with more snow, which we could always visit on a chase btw. 

Each fall I plan an extended trip to New England or Quebec and follow that location's weather too.  This year I went to Quebec City spent 4 days Nordic skiing and also a couple of days at the Winter Carnival.  I also did a walking tour of Quebec in what my sister called a blizzard.  Fortunately, we arrived a few days after -47 - but they were still talking about it.