dallen7908

How about this ... the EPS shows a positive EPO for much of this period while the CPC 3-4 week outlook gives us a > 60% chance of above normal temperatures as La Nina reasserts itself.  

Based on my limited knowledge of this ...

Warmings have strong correlation with winter temperatures in Europe; not so much in the northeastern U.S..  We'll have to wait and see.  In any case, probably not much of a factor until mid-December

Saint Martin's summer; would use the more familiar Indian summer - if my back yard had experienced a freeze

The NWS forecast discussions out of Sterling are about to get more interesting - for snow lovers

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer

From the NWS discussion:

Day    IAD high/high min BWI high/high min DCA high/high min
11/8:  77(1987)/57(1977) 80(1975)/62(1975) 81(1975)/63(1975)
11/9:  78(1994)/56(1987) 78(1994)/61(1945) 79(1994)/64(1895)
11/10: 75(1985)/60(1966) 75(1999)/62(1966) 76(1999)/60(1975)
11/11: 78(2006)/55(2002) 77(2006)/59(1970) 78(1949)/58(1970)

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf

Just in case you need background as to what a rising QBO value MAY mean for our winter weather. 

The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter.  Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model?

On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast.   On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane.  

Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November.  My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02.  I'll take any advantage I can get. 

A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive  AO value. 

Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. 

4.9" in my College Park rain gauge.  Several neighbors are wet-vacuuming their cars - glad ours was up on our driveway

UKMET not as optimistic as GGEM wrt snow chances

Thanks for the ensembles.  Perhaps going forward continue ending them at 18Z 31 March. 

Would be interesting to see if any of the perturbed members are more skillful.  Of course, this would not be possible to determine this year when the least snowiest is almost always if not always the most accurate.

The climate change tangent got me thinking of nordic skiing and a sign I saw this past January. 

Hopefully "forever" won't end sooner than the Doucettes' hope

Low 40s and rain unless you head to Canaan Valley or Garrett County where accumulations of up to 6" are possible for the system according to the UMKMET through Saturday morning

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related?

Strictly speaking the maps give the percent of ensemble members showing at least a certain amount of snow/sleet. They are a tool not a forecast. 

I'm heading to Colorado next week for a meeting followed by my third snow chase of the winter.  My first two were North Conway, NH and Davis, WV.  Any suggestions as to a good place to XC ski in the mountains west of the Denver/Boulder area?

Yes 3 of the 21 06 UT GEFS members give the DC area winter storm warning conditions just one week from today! None of the other members give us any snow during that time frame.  Go big or go home. 

Correction: one additional member gives us a trace next Thursday

The official published National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Weather/Climate station on Canaan Valley's floor (3,254 ft.) has only reported 55.1 inches of snow for the 2019-20 winter through February 25, 2020.  This is one of the lowest snowfall totals to that date in the Valley's 76-year snowfall record (began 1944-45).  The 7-inch maximum depth recorded so far this winter is also currently the lowest maximum winter snow depth ever recorded in any winter!

https://whitegrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/fearlessfeb26.txt

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

March 8 looked great on 0z. March 8 is crap on the 6z. Stop me if you have heard this before. Either way, seems like the PSU window of opportunity is at least alive...

Cherry picking an index for that time period

Would be a fitting end to the season; however, I don't believe we've converged on a solution yet

Just got around to checking last night's EPS.  New seasonal low for snow fall mean of 0.2" for College Park.  I suspect the low values may have more to do with March climatology than any worsening in our already dire outlook. 

Maryland had a home baseball game yesterday afternoon.  Getting close to give up time for us snow lovers. 

The 8-14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and precipitation.  Alberta clipper friendly given the forecast northwesterly flow? 

The 15-day EPS snowfall mean for College Park is in the 1 to 1.5" category, its largest in several days. 

30 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet during that period

8 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet this week. 

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense?  Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

Clearly, not a Gaussian distribution. 

1 hour ago, WeatherShak said:

I go to Canaan twice a winter on purpose to get my fix. 

I follow the link below all winter and was out in the Valley (at Whitegrass) in early February.

 I also follow several New England nordic ski weather updates.  

I also follow the weather discussion for Barrow (Utquigvik) beginning in September through late October.  

https://whitegrass.com/daily-report/

2 hours ago, frd said:

 This year is rather remarkable in terms of the consistent trough in the area of Alaska. Some stations in the Yukon and NW Canada setting some records for the coldest weather in many years.  

Meanwhile, I believe two days ago, another record set for the jet stream, this time over Green Bay. No changes on the horizon at all, if anything warmer risks more likely I think and a overall warmer March.  Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. 

The recent trends regarding the warmer SSTs in the Eastern Pac also foretell of a warmer March , in addition to the AO  modeling.  However rolled over the warmer March gives way to a colder April. Wondering too about the summer , as I am hearing varying opinions about the summer weather pattern in the East, ranging from little precip and extreme heat to a cooler summer.  

I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal. 

 

Well 6 SD is hard to comprehend 

https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-5-sigma-means-0423423/

Ok, snow showers in late March/ early April.  Seems like those were common at one point here 

https://www.masnsports.com/orioles-buzz/2017/12/orioles-classics-tbt-snowy-opening-day-comes-in-as-opacy-classic-game-no-10.html

15 day EPS snowfall mean for College Park at a new seasonal low - almost 0.5"