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dallen7908

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Posts posted by dallen7908

  1. Euro 6z:

     

    Verbatim (without looking at the soundings), Similar or very slight worse than 00 UT, for DC it shows snow beginning between 11 AM and noon changing to mixed precipitation between 2 and 3, surface temperature of 34 degrees. 

    Snow maximum still in central PA - just under 2 feet

  2. 4 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

    One of the reasons why we have ENSEMBLES  Is to check the validity of the operational or deterministic models. In this case the operational 12z GFS is completely flat with only a little bit of precip in Southeast Virginia on the 12Z run.  But as I'm sure you have all seen by now the 12ZGFS ensemble looks exactly like 0z and 6z European runs....

     This should be a big clue for everybody that the operational GFS for whatever reason is still completely clueless when it comes to this system on Monday. The differences between the 12z GEFS  and the operational GFS is simply staggering at 48 hours before the event.

     

     

    Are the ensembles still based off of the old GFS? If yes, it's less staggering

  3. From the NWS discussion:
    
    Day    IAD high/high min BWI high/high min DCA high/high min
    11/8:  77(1987)/57(1977) 80(1975)/62(1975) 81(1975)/63(1975)
    11/9:  78(1994)/56(1987) 78(1994)/61(1945) 79(1994)/64(1895)
    11/10: 75(1985)/60(1966) 75(1999)/62(1966) 76(1999)/60(1975)
    11/11: 78(2006)/55(2002) 77(2006)/59(1970) 78(1949)/58(1970)
  4. image.thumb.png.01e9e0391133a72ad4a15067fb57b876.png

    The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter.  Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model?

    On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast.   On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane.  

    Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November.  My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02.  I'll take any advantage I can get. 

    A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive  AO value. 

    Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. 

     

  5. Thanks for the ensembles.  Perhaps going forward continue ending them at 18Z 31 March. 

    Would be interesting to see if any of the perturbed members are more skillful.  Of course, this would not be possible to determine this year when the least snowiest is almost always if not always the most accurate.

     

  6. 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related?

    Strictly speaking the maps give the percent of ensemble members showing at least a certain amount of snow/sleet. They are a tool not a forecast. 

  7. I'm heading to Colorado next week for a meeting followed by my third snow chase of the winter.  My first two were North Conway, NH and Davis, WV.  Any suggestions as to a good place to XC ski in the mountains west of the Denver/Boulder area?

  8. Yes 3 of the 21 06 UT GEFS members give the DC area winter storm warning conditions just one week from today! None of the other members give us any snow during that time frame.  Go big or go home. 

     

    Correction: one additional member gives us a trace next Thursday

  9.  

    The official published National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Weather/Climate station on Canaan Valley's floor (3,254 ft.) has only reported 55.1 inches of snow for the 2019-20 winter through February 25, 2020.  This is one of the lowest snowfall totals to that date in the Valley's 76-year snowfall record (began 1944-45).  The 7-inch maximum depth recorded so far this winter is also currently the lowest maximum winter snow depth ever recorded in any winter!
    


    https://whitegrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/fearlessfeb26.txt

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