mattie g

1 hour ago, H2O said:

I just hope they reconsider and close for just rain. That’s for @mattie g

Me too. Just because.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Prince William County schools are closed tomorrow. 

Cue Mattie G

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Heh...Loudoun and Prince William schools closed.  Why?

See watcher’s post above. 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Drinking a Ten Fidy Imperial Stout.

Super good.

eta- new edition is not 10.5% abv, its 12.9%

Barrel-aged Ten FIDY or regular? Both excellent beers, but the BA version is crazy good. Melted M&Ms with a splash of bourbon.

On 11/6/2018 at 6:30 PM, showmethesnow said:

Seeing comments about a warm T-Day incoming. Just a flyer on my part but I am not so sure that is a given quite yet. Besides the obvious, that the models can and will change especially at longer ranges (2+ weeks), I think there may be some hope shown within the model itself that this may not be the case. Below is day 15 on the EPS. Notice the higher heights (these strong anomalies begin building day 8) in Europe but the muted ridging? With the very strong anomalies I question whether the ridging is getting smoothed out by some other members in the longer range. One thing that leads me to believe that the ridging may be stronger then shown (-NAO) is that we see strong negative anomalies that move into and off shore of southern Greenland and something is locking it there from day 9 through the duration of the run. Now if this is in fact the case (ridging into Greenland with low pressures trapped underneath) then the flat flow we see running through the CONUS should look very different. Instead with that setup around Greenland we would typically see pronounced troughing in the east with ridging in the west. This would mean a warm west and a cold east. Of course this is all just guess work on my part and I could very well be wrong. So don't be putting your swim suits away just yet. 

 

 

 

I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but this is looking like it could turn out to be a hell of a call.

6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I have to wonder if this Day 7-15 +PNA is going to prelude a longer non-PNA time in Dec-Feb. 

Not without SSW

6 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I distinctly remember that Boxing Day bust. After an amazing 09-10 winter, SC and GA got snow that day and we got the dreaded snow hole. I'm thrilled about this winter, but I heard someone say that we will be in for a drought next winter. Not sure how anyone can predict that, but I hope it's not true. 

Close the blinds. Next winter is going to be a shutout.

16 hours ago, mattie g said:

My breakdown for Burke:

>2”: 0%

1-2”: 1%

0.5-1”: 10%

0.1-0.49”: 40%

T: 48%

0”: 1%

And I don’t really care because it’ll be November 15 when this happens. If this were early December and the same apparent outcome were to happen I’d probably be a little more miffed, but I’m more interested to see storm after storm heading up the coast with plenty of cold air around.

No updates to this IMBY forecast. May the rest of you fare as well as I do.

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Some bars might have been set too high me thinks

I think you’re being too sensible.

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree.  Bottom line is the air mass is just not that cold so even with the other ingredients being in the cake you can’t just delete or reduce one and expect a good cake.  

This airmass is damn cold - can’t get too much colder this time of year - but the calendar is working against us.

Congrats to everyone tracking and pulling for this one, but for all but the very most favored areas this was always a huge uphill climb.

My breakdown for Burke:

>2”: 0%

1-2”: 1%

0.5-1”: 10%

0.1-0.49”: 40%

T: 48%

0”: 1%

And I don’t really care because it’ll be November 15 when this happens. If this were early December and the same apparent outcome were to happen I’d probably be a little more miffed, but I’m more interested to see storm after storm heading up the coast with plenty of cold air around.

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Dec 5th 2009

Then I’m in.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

wnwxluvr is in a PRIME spot for this event. You and me? heh... aww hellz nooes mang

No doubt whatsoever, esé...

51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

To be honest, I usually only look at where I live.  I think most of us do that.

My expectation is that this resembles Dec 26, 2013 for most of the area.  That storm was a different setup as it was a TN valley storm that jumped to the coast, and a more pronounced CAD, but I think this storm may be very similar in the weather that we see.

That’s fair, and I know you’re in a much better spot for this than I am, but when talking about most people we need to be realistic.

Of course, I have absolutely no issue with you caring only about your backyard. I’m with you...I don’t care much if Bumf***, VA gets a foot of snow if I only get an inch that turns to a cold drizzle. It’s what this hobby is all about.

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see.  This has the potential to be a good winter storm.  This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November.

Good trends and a good chance.

Can you look at this, in all honesty, and say that most people on this sub forum will see more than an inch or two?

I’m all for positivity, and I know 1987 happened, but sometimes we have to be realists first and base our expectations on the information coming in.

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm excited to see some kind of winter weather fall from the sky even if its for a brief 10 minutes before we flip to rain.  It's been a parade of coastals that doesn't seem to want to end...

...that is until D/J/F comes around.  

Cold/dry, warm/wet.

24 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Another day

 

Anotha dollah...

I mentioned this yesterday (I think), but is anyone else having an issue with how Twitter is not resizing to fit the margins of the page? It’s really getting annoying.

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No doubt...long way to go, and given what it is to be a mid-Atlantic snow weenie caution is always prudent. I’m thinking if we see a decent December and get on a heater in February we could easily end up on the higher end of forecasts.

Would anyone ever call for 25+ at DCA before the first flakes have fallen? What were the 09-10 forecast totals?

Totally agree on the bold. If December gets us started off strong, then we could have a really big year because I think we crush it in late January through the first three weeks or so of February, with a chance of an event or two squeezed in there.

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG went 150-175% of normal in 09-10. 24” for DCA and 30” for BWI.

Those numbers sound so unimpressive compared to what happened.

52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If you all haven’t read Ray’s (40/70 Benchmark) winter forecast in the NE subforum, grab a beer, kick back, and do it. This is about as good a look as you can get, though I know a mod niño is a bit better down here. 

While the look is great (incredible, woofable actually), a call of 15-25” for DC isn’t really that impressive, if we’re being honest. Of course, 20” for DCA could well mean 30”+ for me at slight elevation in Fairfax County, but still...there’s a loooooong way to go.

16 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think I know now after 2 winters of living here not to get my hopes up, lol. Maybe this will be the year I actually experience a real winter? Looks like my area up in Germantown has a decent shot at this one. I have yet to get a 6” event and that’s what weather underground is calling for.

Don’t expect 6” this early in the season because it’ll just leave you disappointed. Even seeing flakes this early is anomalous. Our time will come this year - I think everyone is on board with that - so just be patient.

24 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

This the season.  I just bought 10 pints of hardywood gingerbread Stout at my local grocery store upon my return to Northern Virginia today. I bought everything that was on the Shelf. I will be back for more. They sell them in  Pints this year which is interesting.

Much prefer the 500ml bottles, as I find that more than that in pastry stouts gets a bit much. Something barrel-aged is a little different, in my opinion.

Cant wait for BB GBS to hit the shelves...

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads.  I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them.  

EDIT: adding @stormtracker, @Ian, and @mappy

Ian? Someone who makes 3 posts a year now? Might as well have stormtrackerRandy start them.

5 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive

Edit: Click to refresh 

 

 

Calling @Bob Chill re: the AO forecast above. We’re looking at an average forecast of a bit below -2SD as we head into December...

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Absolutely stellar day today.  Peak Fall.

Definitely. Bright sunshine to take away a little of the chill, no wind, dry. Perfect day for picking up a metric sh*t ton of leaves.

6 hours ago, frd said:

Seems later in the month there is pressure on the PV from both the Atlantic and Pac sides, certainly no blue ball up there. 

 

 

 

Judah #Cohen needs to #easeup on the #hashtags.

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Even in 2009...wasn't Christmas rainy and kinda mild? (I remember how quickly all that snow disappeared!)

Slush Christmas